April 2, 2007
|Total votes: 14|
Continue playing here against a computer opponent or
Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com
Monday 6:34 AM
No one LIKES tossing sixes to opponent; it's one of the highest yielding tosses you can execute without a 5. In other board postions, you happily toss 6-J, but here I think you just gotta shut your eyes tight and gamble. I just don't think there's going to be a "next hand" for you. Even if your opponent nets a miserable 7 or 8 combined points as dealer, he's still a favorite to win next hand if you miss your cut (trip Kings and a 6 just can't improve enough -- except on a 5 or K -- 5 total cards). And frankly a dozen may not be enough for you. So what then would be the point of playing defensively? Given this, give yourself another 4 chances by way of a Q. Holding the J also now puts you out if you're lucky enough to hit a 5. Sure your chances have gone from a desperate 10% to win, to just 20% to win. But at least it's a chance. A 6 coupled with 10-cards is not ideal for pone as dealer's quite likely to score 31 on you -- or a 15 if you actually thought dealer would pair you (he won't). I just think he's going to peg out or count out on you next hand as there's just too great a chance you're going to be sitting at 113 as next dealer, too far back to peg out. As much as I hate to leave a game's outcome to sheer luck, that seems to be the name of the game here. Wish me a whole heap of it.
Monday 7:17 AM
Keeping the faces is the only way to get out this hand, short of a miracle. Bad timing for this hand, but you have to try to go out now ... there's no later here.
Monday 10:43 AM
The primary consideration here is to win the game. No need to consider crib average of discards. If dealer was ten points further back, would consider a defensive discard to crib with the 6-J. In this position 14 holes from winning and opponent with first count next hand, got to go for the win. Toss the 6-6. Of the 13 pairs, 6-6 has an average of 6.304 to opponent crib. There are four pairs that score a higher average. Wonder what those might be? Pretty slim chances for you to win even so. Chances of non-dealer scoring 14 points are 1/5. Yup, that's a 20% chance to win. You might make the game more exciting by cutting that fourth King for 12 points and real poor pegging prospects for the remaining two needed. With dealer at 104, better than even chance will not score the 17 points needed and you get one more deal and all that excitement of a close game settled by end-of-game pegging strategy. Don't tell me your strategy would be to turn the Jack.
Monday 5:03 PM
I agree with the above posters, and the cut is the icing on the cake
Joined: February 2007
Monday 6:24 PM
Yeah, that is a great upcard. Though I think keeping the six is the best option, and even though the poll doesn't show it, most players chose that (7 for keeping three faces and a 6) I simply think it's better because it gives you a chance to peg at least a point or two, leaving you just a little closer to pegging it in the next hand. It is a long shot though, and without that 5, it would've been over for sure. Quite the upcard though, that is an exciting finish. This is definitely one for the hall of fame (I hope I get around to doing that some day)