Saturday 3:04 AM

Wow...this is a tough one..gotta keep the face card run..pone may salt his crib and the cut card doesnt help at all

   

Saturday 3:12 AM

have to keep the face card run and did not want 3 6 in crib in fear of 3s or 6s the oppn might match in crib lousy cut

   

Saturday 3:18 AM

Since i have have my position point here prefer mot to give up an 8 in the crib.Dealer needs to get to 85. Slightly less crib ave I will be playing off here. Leading the Q more defensive an 8 lead might lead to some end peggers. Still got a good lead here. dec

   

Saturday 3:42 AM

3-6 always here. Not interested in putting an 8 into oppo's crib when I don't have to. Lead the floater 8 and hope to pair his face card reply.

   

Saturday 4:10 AM

A bit similar to yesterday's with a choice of 3 discards: 3-6, 3-8 or 6-8. No reason to throw 6-8 as we're in position. I think 6-3 is safer. If dealer discards 4-5 its almost as dangerous with the 3-8.

   

Saturday 4:57 AM

the vote thats got me curious is 6-8 any rebuttals on that one? highest crib ave

   

Saturday 5:21 AM

I voted to hold the six to lead it.

   

Saturday 8:45 AM

Yeah, don't know why that many folks would risk tossing 6-8.

   

Saturday 9:08 AM

3-8 and 3-6 close to the same on average. I picked 3-8 as its harder to do a fill in and if a bunch of 6s and 9s show up, the 3-6 can be an ugly one.

   

Saturday 11:14 AM

It's Saturday and a good way to start the day.

Saturday 11:22 AM

Toss 3-6. There are no page one discards here except for 6 or 8 with face. Don't suppose too many will elect to play zero although at 70 points, probably doesn't matter. Of those the 6-K is lowest scoring to opponent crib. Then it comes down to holding J-Q-K with one of those remaining cards. 3-6 has lowest static average at 4.813 (943. 3-8 average to opponent is 5.196 (1,014). 3-6 fluid average is even lower than that as it takes another six spot to make 15-2. Don't think too many would toss 6-8 to hold three points. If so 6-8 average is 5.863 (833). Something new to do on Saturday. Enjoy!

   

Saturday 12:54 PM

Playing a Defense strategy the expected averages and Win %'s are:

DEFENSE---Hand---Pegs---Crib---Total---W4 %---W5 %
8-J-Q-K___5.13+(-3.24)+(-4.76)=(-2.87)_35.3___63.5
6-J-Q-K___5.13+(-3.22)+(-4.96)=(-3.05)_35.9___64.2
3-J-Q-K___5.18+(-3.20)+(-5.77)=(-3.49)_37.2___63.3

3-6 to crib is best for dynamic expected averages, whilst 6-8 is slightly better than the other two on Win %'s but if losing percentages are considered there is risk to 6-8:

DEFENSE-------L4 %----L5 %
8-J-Q-K_______18.0___18.8
6-J-Q-K_______17.8___18.3
3-J-Q-K_______20.3___18.9

As it is in the middle part of the game and the strategy is Defense I will select on the basis of expected averages and keep 8-J-Q-K.

After the 3 cut I'll lead the K and play Defense.