Tuesday 3:08 AM

well went with a safe throw 8/J ok cut will lead an 8

   

Tuesday 3:18 AM

This the best offensive (and defensive keep). For a chance have to try to balk crib but still have some offensive potential here. I might have succeeded in the crib. Got 7 I reached over my position point here (The dealer goals 96?). The lead for me is the 5 spades an offensive play hoping for a run possibility here or 7-8 for three. dec

   

Tuesday 3:30 AM

Had I known a 9 would be cut I'd toss 5-J. I went for loss prevention, and tossed offsuited 8-J.

Lead the 8 and dodge the pegging if possible.

   

Tuesday 3:33 AM

I gotta keep the two pairs...play catch up next hand...

   

Tuesday 4:02 AM

I'm with the off-suited 8-J votes. Safest discard holding 4pts.

   

Tuesday 7:01 AM

Gotta run with the herd today. I want to get to the 96 positional hole, but just get me somewhere on fourth street to deal and I know I still have a decent chance to win this game.

   

Tuesday 7:46 AM

Look like 8-J has to go. Pity we didn't deal! Lead 8.

   

Tuesday 12:23 PM

It's been said very well. 8-J is the safest discard available. Hand potential cannot be a serious concern as neither 5-5-7-J or 5-7-8-8 can be justified when tossing 8-8 or 5-J. It's good to note that nobody tossed 5-5 - we're making progress!

   

Tuesday 1:06 PM

Playing an Offense strategy the expected averages and Win %'s are:

OFFENSE----Hand--Pegs--Crib--Total---W5 %---W6 %
5-5-7-8D___7.65+1.26+(-4.02)=4.89___30.1___30.4
5-5-7-J____9.11+1.11+(-5.73)=4.49___37.4___30.9
5-5-8-8____6.70+1.09+(-3.96)=3.83___24.8___26.5
5-5-8S-J___8.59+1.13+(-6.81)=2.91___34.3___25.8
5-7-8-8____9.13+1.33+(-7.72)=2.74___38.7___27.0

Although 5-5-7-8 has the best dynamic expected average all the keeps holding 6pts have better Win %'s.

OFFENSE-------L5 %----L6 %
5-5-7-8D______37.3____55.1
5-5-7-J________46.2___53.7
5-5-8-8________36.0___58.8
5-5-8S-J_______50.3___58.5
5-7-8-8________53.9___56.8

The riskier discards however result in higher Loss %'s so I will select 8S-J based on expected averages and a balance between Win % and Loss %.

After the 9 cut I will lead the 8 and play Defense.

   

Tuesday 2:04 PM

Tossed 5-J with hope of catching the double run for a dozen.