Sunday 3:12 AM

Offense the call here. I did do four points here. Did alright with the cut in main hand quading it. Went with the possibility with pone being really short here that they could fill in the crib . I will play on to lead maybe trap a facecard here. dec

   

Sunday 4:14 AM

Bingo!

   

Sunday 4:40 AM

kept poosiblity of run in and hand and it is always nice to give yourself a couple points in the crib

   

Sunday 4:54 AM

No thought required - grat cut! ;-)

   

Sunday 5:07 AM

Could this be the 100% day?

   

Sunday 5:08 AM

It was going to be either the pair of eigjhts or pair of jacks...better chance of getting a face card cut so I tossed the eights...my lucky day

   

Sunday 8:20 AM

I always favor mid-card tosses into my own crib when the number of points kept (Ras's rule) are the same.

   

Sunday 9:24 AM

Second best isn't close.

   

Sunday 11:36 AM

Even Ras would make it less than 100% today as discarded J-J to crib. Potential crib value is very close with 8-8 or J-J based on my empirical data with 5.496 (1,501) and 5.275 (952) respectively. Why would I go with lower average to crib? 8-8 scores two points almost twice as often as does J-J cause opponet will discard 9-K, 9-Q, 6-K, 6-Q, 6-10, 6-J etc. before ever reaching for a 7 with a face and will seldom chance two middle cards to my crib. Conversely two X-pointers are often tossed to dealer crib, Q-K being one of the most frequent combos. Also 3-8-8-K offers a better chance for offensive pegging -got to be at least a half point better. So I gave up .221 in crib potential to gain more than a half point in pegging potential. Wil wait for HAL to see what his calculations will show.

   

Sunday 11:54 AM

Best you can get with 88 XX in the hand is 6 points. Not for me, go for 8 and throw two.

   

Sunday 12:25 PM

This is how they all should turn out.

   

Sunday 3:50 PM

Playing a Defense strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win %'s are:

DEFENSE-------Hand---Pegs-Crib-Total---W8 %---W9 %
3-J-J-K_______4.26+(-2.67)+5.52=7.11___52.9___49.5
3-8-8-K_______3.48+(-2.20)+5.19=6.47___48.9___44.7
8-8-J-J_______5.30+(-2.48)+3.57=6.39___50.8___48.1

3-J-J-K is 1/3pt better on crib potential and whilst 3-8-8-K is 1/2pt better on net pegging average the hand potential of 3-J-J-K is 3/4pt better than 3-8-8-K.

8-8-J-J is very close to 3-8-8-K on expected averages however, in this board postion, has greater probability of winning than 3-8-8-K but
3-J-J-K is the best for win %'s. So I will vote with the majority for 8-8 to crib.

After the Q cut I will play Defense to the lead.

   

Sunday 5:35 PM

Well, looks like Ras already said it all for this discard. Now I'll stop cryng about how the Q was cut and try to get some points back in the pegging.

Sunday 6:12 PM

Can't help but think that Ras and yourself have not taken account of the better expected averages for 3-J-J-K compared to 3-8-8-K. I make it 4.00pts vs 3.48pts and this doesn't include the the extra 0.25pt for holding J's. This outweighs the small advantage of the pegging over the crib.