Tuesday 3:15 AM

Do or die. Throw a 4-8 no. If I am going to play my position and need 69-70 I will go for the 6-7-8-9 cuts. I am sure some will do the two eights here and explain those pros and cons also. Since I got an noncut here anyone fancy a 5 lead for the 8s for 31? If they manage 8-10 in crib not good. dec

   

Tuesday 4:11 AM

Its either 4-4 or 8-8. I'd rather hold the sure 6. I'd lead an 8, and try to muster a few points.

   

Tuesday 4:20 AM

Can't see the logic in sacrificing 2pts to throw 8-8. For me I have to keep the potential double run and 6pts. Its between 4-5 and 4-4. Both are worth 2pts but its no contest, for me, its 4-4. I'll also lead an 8.

   

Tuesday 4:25 AM

well threw the least of the evils hoped for a better cut will lead an 8 in pegging

   

Tuesday 4:38 AM

I hate to throw any pair but the two fours seem the best option....lead with the eight

   

Tuesday 6:47 AM

Agreed. It hurts, but it seems the only way. Of very minor consolation is that you hold one 15-making 7 and post-cut, the K eases stress about the crib somewhat...

   

Tuesday 6:52 AM

Throw the 2 4's in the crib - lead with the 8. Happy St. Urho's Day everyone!!

   

Tuesday 8:41 AM

Got to throw 4-4 as least of the evils and keeps all the right cards in my hand. 8 led.

   

Tuesday 11:57 AM

It's been said very well. Need all the points possible as would like to garner 14 points out of this hand. At 55, need a boost. What does 4-4 do for opponent on average? Does have a pretty good average on the 144 recorded - 6.000. 4-4 does score two points on 21.335% of the tosses. That's better than one in five at two points. Wear that green on the morrow or you could be in a pinch!

   

Tuesday 4:11 PM

Playing an Optimal strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win %'s are:

OPTIMAL---Hand---Pegs---Crib---Total----W4 %--W5 %
5-7-8-8___9.22+(-1.37)+(-6.16)=1.69_____7.2___28.4
4-4-5-7___7.43+(-1.28)+(-5.73)=0.42_____6.3___24.3
4-4-7-8S__7.78+(-1.41)+(-6.09)=0.28_____5.3___24.1
4-5-7-8___5.09+(-1.07)+(-4.28)=(-0.26)__3.5___19.7
4-5-8-8___4.74+(-1.35)+(-3.90)=(-0.51)__3.6___18.7
4-7-8-8___8.22+(-1.41)+(-7.31)=(-0.51)__5.9___24.3

4-4 to crib is over 1¼pts better than the next on expected averages and several percent better on Win %'s so I will vote with the majority.

After the K cut I'll lead the 8 and peg optimally.

Lead---------Net Pegging Pts----W4 %-------W5 %
8______________-1.22__________3.6________22.7
7______________-1.75__________3.3________21.3
5______________-2.33__________3.6________22.0

Note the 5 lead is very close to an 8 on Win %'s.