Monday 3:03 AM

Balk. Deny. Get the next two counts. dec

   

Monday 3:17 AM

I agree completely with dec, we already have position so should discard defensively to stifle the dealer.
I've no real preference between K-6 or K-9, but have kept the 9 so my cards aren't as tightly bunched.

   

Monday 3:26 AM

I liked the K-A-4 .option but can't throw the 9-6 so it's 6-3 to the crib.

   

Monday 4:32 AM

Both Toss (6 K) and Toss (9 K) seem equally safe, but with (6 9) in our hand, the latter seems a bit safer. Lead the 4 Card.

   

Monday 4:37 AM

Throw the worst 2 cards.Also allows us to keep the A46 pegging combo.

   

Monday 5:21 AM

I usually loathe splitting a 9,6. After the decision to keep them I wanted to baulk the crib but had in mind a picture card turnup so by deduction the 3 K had to go

   

Monday 5:23 AM

Despite the fact that it gives me 8, I didnt want a 5 cut. Lead the 6 and play defense.

   

Monday 6:07 AM

Stayed up late and got up late. Unsual for me but watching "Blind Side". Toss 9-K and keep a really good pegger. Hand stats at zero and increases with every cut from 2-8 point hand.

Monday 8:12 AM

I agree with polynumeral. This keep has a higher average hand over A-3-4-6 by over 1 full point. Yet 3-K gives away only about 0.5 points more to the Dealer. We can still peg defensively about as well as A-3-4-6. We still hold the 3 card eleven. Lead the 6 from the A-6-4 three card eleven. If Dealer plays a 9, ignore it. Make the count 16 with the Ace.

   

Monday 9:28 AM

I pick my ace and king

   

Monday 9:30 AM

3-K looks best to me. Reasons well stated above.

   

Monday 10:23 AM

I'd like to balk the crib with 9-K or 6-K but I lose the only 2pts I've got. I think I'll go with A-K as 3-4-6-9 still gives me chances of 8/9pts with 2222, 5555. A-K is estmated by my rules as 4½pts (Schell: 4.30) and 9-K 4pts (Schell: 4.03) and 6-K 4¼pts (Schell: 4.14). So I think its worth giving up the ½pt in the crib to start with 2pts. 3-4-6-9 may not peg quite as well but close, I think. I'll throw the A-K.

   

Monday 10:56 AM

Opponent at 93 me at 97 so it's 9K for me everytime.

   

Monday 11:52 AM

A and K in the crib. Hope for some pegging points.

   

Monday 1:37 PM

K-9 looks to be the safest discard. Even though I sacrificed 2 points, every card in the deck will improve my hand. Let's lead the 4 and play a little defense.

   

Monday 2:06 PM

At 97*-93 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total___W1 %__W2 %
A-4-6-9___4.65+(-2.72)+(-4.46)=(-2.53)__43.6__64.1
3-4-6-9___4.35+(-2.78)+(-4.12)=(-2.55)__40.7__63.7
A-4-6-K___4.22+(-2.22)+(-4.56)=(-2.56)__39.4__61.3
A-4-9-K___4.48+(-2.48)+(-4.51)=(-2.81)__36.2__62.6
A-3-6-9___4.00+(-2.80)+(-4.15)=(-2.95)__36.6__62.4
A-3-4-6___3.43+(-2.63)+(-4.10)=(-3.30)__36.3__62.0
A-3-4-9___3.04+(-2.54)+(-4.07)=(-3.57)__33.2__61.5
A-3-4-K___4.87+(-2.54)+(-6.12)=(-3.79)__44.6__56.8

Defense_______L1 %____L2 %
A-4-6-9_______31.0____22.7
3-4-6-9_______28.8____23.4
A-4-6-K_______31.5____25.8
A-4-9-K_______29.2____25.1
A-3-6-9_______28.9____25.1
A-3-4-6_______29.4____25.7
A-3-4-9_______28.5____26.6
A-3-4-K_______39.1____29.3

The top three for expected averages are within 0.03pt which occurs quite often when dealt a poor scoring hand. Out of the three hands A-4-6-9 is best for Win %s while 3-4-6-9 is best for Loss %s. Playing Defense the choice to discard A-K is certainly worth considering but for the fractionally better expected averages and the better Win %s I'll select the 3-K to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll lead the 4 and play Defense:

Lead__________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
4__________________(-2.27)
A__________________(-2.30)
6__________________(-2.42)
9__________________(-2.49)

   

Monday 3:08 PM

I've made this point several times on Hand of the Day but never really felt that I've convinced anyone? 8-( My argument is that your chosen strategy only affects on thing. That is the play of the hand. The hand dealt to you is fixed you can't change that. The first variable is the discard chosen. The objective is the 'best discard' and doesn't depend on any strategy. You may think you want to play Offense or Defense but in essence you want to maximise your chances of Winning! This is the sole AIM and whatever strategy or tactic you think you ought to employ it overides everything. The' best' hand is the 'best' hand and whether you judge that as the best Total Net Expected Averages or Best Win/Loss %s then that is your judgement. The cards do not know what strategy you're trying to adopt and won't necessarily give you the result that you think they should. So here we're playing a Defense strategy but it doesn't mean that 6-K or 9-K is the best throw although they're the two lowest scoring combinations in the crib. The point I'm trying to make and have tried to make in the past is that fundamentally the AIM is to win. The STRATEGY is to make the best discard decisions to effect that win. The TACTICs are employed in the pegging as to whether you play on, or off, safe or bold or maximizing net points. My rationale is that it is not wise to let the tactics that you will use in the pegging affect your decision in the discard. It doesn't make sense to discard the most Defensive throw unless you judge that it will really increase you winning chances. In this particular example every extra point that you move into the CPZ increases your chances of winning considerably and in fact the difference in the crib between 6/9-K and A/3/4-K is less than 0.4pt.

   

Monday 8:25 PM

Much has been said about holding the A-4-6-9. It is an excellent choice. If playing defense lead the four spot. If choosing offense which I would not do here lead the Ace. See HalscribCLX analysis above. The 3-card 11 A-4-6 is a fine one for non-dealer and if leading the four splits
the cards nicely with A-6-9 remaining. Drop the lone ace next card played if at all possible. At hole 97, we could play a zero point hand. Not crazy about the five cut as dealer gets to count 8 cards with it. Even so, don't want to give dealer easy pegs; so will play off attempting to score 31-2 or close the count. My next choice would have been all-out defense with 9-K discard as chosen by JQT, dec, jazzselke, and Rosemarie44Rosemarie44. BTW I like the weather news very much from any anybody anywhere. On the spot reporting as it happens beats the heck out of the educated guesses which we are often bombarded with. Somebody once defined maniac. Reporting the weather seems to be far removed from maniacal behavior. Even reporting from the eye of a hurricane or from the blackness of a funnel cloud spawning a tornado doesn't make one a maniac. For what it's worth!

   

Monday 8:34 PM

Another great puzzle. How defensive can we be in this situation? It seems to me we can't risk our opponent counting his next hand.