March 26, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Inushtuk1
18*-23  ?
41%
40%
9%
7%
1%
0%
Total votes: 178
BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 3:05 AM
Tough hand. Today to many face cards help this hand to play it any other way. The 3-3 is a great toss to my crib.
dec
6356 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:10 AM
playing for a 10-K cut is too early for me. Adding a cut and at least one in crib to fill in is what I will go for. defense. dec
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:31 AM
Most people will either Toss (3 3) or Toss (J J) here of course.

But I wish to relay to my newly-acquired friend, Inushtuk1, that there may indeed be a Third Alternative 'on the ballot' for those Quebecois who may share a certain disdain for always placing PEARS into their Cribs.

A Ten of Diamonds Cut to 'Compleat' the Five Flush in Our Crib would be oh so epic!

Like a martini: A baby is never shaken! (But gently stirred) - this according to Bond ... James Bond
james500
3921 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Sunday 4:04 AM
3-3-9-Q (J-J) for 4+2=6, seems to me to be best. Chances are the cut won't be a 10 or K, 38/46=82%, so ignore the "hopenosis".

38 cards = 36 cards + 2 cards =
38 cards = 6 "blocks" of 6 cards, + 2 cards =
38 cards = (6*13%) + (2*2%) =
38 cards = 78% + 4% =
38 cards = 82% of the remaining 46.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 4:06 AM
Tossing J-Q leaves a better hand with more cuts for improvement so that is why I made this choice. Combined values are 10.74 points for toss J-Q and 10.71 for toss J-J.
Gougie00
5728 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 5:04 AM
I'll toss the 33 in the crib and pray the pone tosses me A2.

Lousy cut. I Wont be able to peg so I'll play defense.
polynumeral
4530 votes

Joined: December 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 5:24 AM
18 -23 hmm I didn't want to break the 933 and I didn't fancy the chances of a 10/k turn up by keeping 9jjQ.
The game is still young, throw a suited touch to crib and if a 10/k does turn up then it'll minimize the loss of opportunity
spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 6:07 AM
This is on of those hand where I really needed a decent cut. Taking a bathroom break to pull the fire alarm, then call in a bomb threat. :)
spin121 says: Decent cuts I was looking for 3 9 10 K 5 – am terribly short. Will pair a 3 or a J. Leaning towards not pairing a 9 or a Q lead even though I know I'm playing offense here.
spin121 says: Cuts above were for 9 J J Q keep. Was thinking of going that way, changed my mind.
glmccuskey
4099 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Sunday 7:10 AM
I like keeping the 3-3-9 together. Then I think J-J over J-Q.
duke62
1483 votes

Joined: September 2014
 
 
 
Sunday 8:19 AM
3's and J's are both connector pairs to one's own crib. But given that a 9 and Q are in my hand already, I'll opt to throw the 3's. I know I sacrifice two points up front, and the game is still early, but with this deal I'm already concerned about my position. Looking to make something happen and I have a better shot of it in the crib than my hand.

Very much dislike the cut... could have a 2-2.
The_Bee_Mann
306 votes

Joined: November 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 9:25 AM
It was tempting to keep the 3-3-9-Q and toss the pair of Js. Decided to toss the 3s. Lot more possibilities with the 9-J-J-Q.
Goatman
2502 votes

Joined: March 2017
 
 
 
Sunday 9:27 AM
With my two 3's to the crib and the cut of a seven, I'm sure pone gave me a couple of fives for a nice looking 12.
Inushtuk1
1485 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 10:18 AM
Please allow me to explain my reasoning for submitting this puzzle. So I'm standing in line at the pharmacy playing BTO; a decent enough cribbabe app for my IPhone. Hey, under such circumstances I'm not that fussy. This is what I dealt myself at this score. I thought my only two options were (J-J) or (3-3) trying for the double run. I chose to sacrifice two static points and toss (3-3). But when I got back home I decided to query this hand. To my surprise the *optimal* keep is 3-3-9-J(Jd-Qd). So my upstate New York friend JQT is right on with his comments.

However at this score we need to think offense. We are dealing barely in our CPZ with Pone 5 points ahead of us. Or using Schell's Simplified System we have a surplus of 0, and Pone is -11. Called to lunch. Will pick this up later.
Inushtuk1 says: Now where were we before we were so rudely interrupted? Ah yes, why start with only 4 static points as opposed to 6 with the 3-3-9-Q(J-J), or the interesting 3-3-9-J(J-Q) choice of JQT and Rosemarie44? I believe the reason for choosing the 9-J-J-Q(3-3) is that using Ras's crib averages it has a higher combined value than either of the other two options. It also has 24 cuts for improvement, while 3-3-9-J(J-Q) has only 23 cuts for improvement. Admittedly, 3-3-9-J has a higher maximum hand of 12, while 9-J-J-Q maxes out at 10 points. I really wanted those two key connectors in my crib so I went this way.BTW, on defense, and optimal, the professor suggests keeping the 3-3-9-J; JQT and Rosemarie's choice. The better defensive pegging of the wider spaced cards or the "Sweet Sixteen" making up for its slightly lower expected average before factoring in the pegging potential of the hand. Here's how the actual hand played out. Pone cut me the Js. The score is now 20*-23. I have only 9 known points. Like Gougie says above I don't think I'll be able to peg well so playing defense. K(10)-9(19)-K(29-1)/J(10)-5(15-2)-Q(25-1)/Q(10)-J(20-1). Outpegged 2-3 by the Pone, but if you add in the 2 for his heels I am ahead 4-3. He scored 16 in his hand. But not to worry, I scored 12 in my crib. Pone tossed a (3-9) my way. This is more than anyone asked for I expect, but I thought this was an interesting and instructive hand; so there you have it.
Inushtuk1 says: Just one more thing, if I may. Pegging defensively after the cut, it would appear that I should have selected the (J-Q), leaving me with a "Sweet Sixteen", and an escape card, but as we were decidedly playing offense *before* the cut, we really needed those 3's in the crib, and they did indeed come through for us that day, and who knows, maybe today as well.
Ras2829 says: Regardless of the puzzle origin, this is a mighty fine puzzle and there only a few hundredths of a point difference between the three likely choices.
Ras2829
5152 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 12:48 PM
If you just play the numbers here as I generally do, it is the J-J hands down at 5.275 (952) 24/91 with J-Q trailing at 4.827 (1,990) 30/91. There are a number of mitigating factors here: (1) need to choose offense here; (2) the J-Q are suited giving them a little higher average to crib (about .04); (3) the J-Q grows on average from zero to 4.827 (JQT often points this out) while J-J grows from two points to 5.275 for a gain of 3.275; (4) and by discarding the J-Q we retain one of the Jacks with a nine which assures that the cut of a ten spot will help both hand and crib. The cut of the 7 spot confirms my choice of an offense strategy and RAS will play on the lead though would not pair a nine as could give up six pegs for the count of 27 and have to split my treys to advance the count to 30. Have got to keep 3-3 together although would pair a trey as a lead. We know of three diamonds in the crib: JQ toss and the starter card for one assured point, a guaranteed peg, and four points in hand. We could be hole 24 after this deal unless we generate some pegging. Cannot count on a crib flush even though we know of the three diamonds. The chances of a crib flush is one in 740 deals. You can play weeks in GR cribbage at nine games per week and never see a crib flush. Why might that be? The average game includes 9.1 deals. So given that 1/740 frequency rate suggests that a crib flush will show once in each 81 games played. Some of you might have earlier figures from me that were based on 9.3 deals and a frequency rate of one per 79 games played. In any case, crib flushes are very rare and ought to be added as a bonus in the few times they show. Don't plan on a crib flush as it could effect the selection of a pegging strategy and the manner in which your cards are played in pegging sequences.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. Mitigating factors aside for the moment, wouldn't the numbers point to 9-J-J-Q(3-3) here, with an average hand of 4.83 6.08 average crib for (3-3). What am I missing? However I must admit your mitigating factors 3 and 4 are strong arguments in favor of your choice today.
Inushtuk1 says: That should read 4.83 6.08(avg crib) for an expected average of 10.91.
Inushtuk1 says: Okay, plus signs don't work on this site. At least not with my IPad.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: Plus signs and using the ampersand symbol to indicate "and" seem to be unknown hieroglyphics here. Just queried this on my early version of Cribbage Prof and that shows holding 3-3-9-J with the suited J-Q to crib tallies a potential hand of 5.91, offensive pegs of 2.46, and a crib of 4.64 for combined value of 13.01. The choice of 9-J-J-Q with 3-3 discard suffers so much in potential hand score at 4.61 that it cannot make up that difference even with the slightly larger potential pegs of 2.50 and the much larger crib of 5.73 for combined total of 12.84. That seems correct and the four mitigating items above are likely the reason for the better figures for 3-3-9-J. Think it might work out to retaining 9-J-J-Q with 3-3 discard if choosing defense since the four upper cards are fairly tightly grouped and generally don't pose a pegging difficulty for dealer.
Ras2829 says: And of course when choosing defense pegging strategy, the potential pegs scored by opponent are deducted from dealer hand/crib score. Choosing an offensive pegging strategy, the pegs scored are added to hand/crib total. So there can be quite a remarkable shift sometimes in values for that reason.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. I just read Halscrib's recalculated analysis. So now I'm *really* confused. But I think I may have been using figures from a later version of the Cribbage Prof than you have. That may account for the differences. In any case this puzzle was submitted because I was surprised by how well the (J-Q) toss did according to the Cribbage Prof's numbers. Perhaps we can't go too far wrong with anyone of those top three options. Best wishes, and keep your pegs far apart. P.S. I had a great time getting beat up by all those Pacific Northwest peggers last weekend. Hope to make it out there again soon.
Coeurdelion
5593 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Sunday 2:34 PM
A choice between 3-3-9-JC (JD-QD), 3-3-9-Q (J-J) or 9-J-J-Q (3-3):

3-3-9-JC: 4pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.81) = 8¾pts

3-3-9-Q: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.33) = 9¼pts

9-J-J-Q: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.94) = 7¾pts

3-3-9-JC: Improves with 2222, 33, 5555, 6666, 999, 10101010, JJ = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 7/8/12pts with 2222, 33, 999, 10101010 = 13 cuts. Plus 12 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

3-3-9-Q: Improves with 2222, 33, 5555, 6666, 999, QQQ = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 8/12pts with 2222, 33, 999 = 9 cuts.

9-J-J-Q: Improves with 5555, 6666, 999 + 13xXs = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/10pts with 5555, 10101010, KKKK = 12 cuts. Plus 22 diamond and clubs for an extra 1pt for his nob = 22/46 = 0.48pt.

Pegging:

3-3-9-J and 3-3-9-Q should peg better than 9-J-J-Q and I believe 3-3-9-J will be slightly best.

Position:

It looks as if its third deal and we've scored well below the average of 26pts so I think we must play Offense to try to regain position.

Summary:

3-3-9-JC is ½pt lower than 3-3-9-Q buts has more cuts for improvement and more for 7-12pts plus it scores ¼pt for his nob. So I think the suited J-Q will be better than the pair of Js. 9-J-J-Q starts with 1pt less but has nearly ½pt potential for his nob and the number of cuts for improvement and cuts for 8-10pts are close. Even so I don't think it will quite patch the potential of 3-3-9-J and the latter should peg better as well. So I'll throw the suited J-Q.
HalscribCLX
5316 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 2:36 PM
At 18*-23 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
__________________Our
Offense__Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W7 %__W8 %
3-3-9-JC__5.91+2.46+4.64=13.01____12.5____29.9
3-3-9-Q__5.43+2.48+5.02=12.93____12.4____29.8
9-J-J-Q___4.61+2.50+5.73=12.84____13.2____30.5

Offense________L7 %___L8 %
3-3-9-JC_______16.7____37.7
3-3-9-Q________16.7____38.5
9-J-J-Q_________17.0____37.5

3-3-9-JC is best for expected averages by 0.17pt and although 9-J-J-Q is slightly better for Win %s 3-3-9-JC is very slightly better for Loss %s. As its early in the game I'll decide based on the expected averages and select JD-QD to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
HalscribCLX
5316 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 2:57 PM
Recalculated owing to bug in hand expected average holding two Js:

At 18*-23 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W7 %____W8 %
9-J-J-Q___4.83+2.50+5.73=13.06____13.2____30.5
3-3-9-JC__5.91+2.46+4.64=13.01____12.5____29.9
3-3-9-Q___5.43+2.48+5.02=12.93____12.4____29.8

Offense_________L7 %____L8 %
9-J-J-Q_________17.0____37.5
3-3-9-JC________16.7____37.7
3-3-9-Q_________16.7____38.5

9-J-J-Q is slightly best for expected averages by 0.05pt and it is also slightly better for Win %s although 3-3-9-JC is very slightly better for Loss %s. So I'll select 3-3 to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
Inushtuk1 says: Aha! The brain fog may be lifting slightly. The average hand of 9-J-J-Q is 4.83; not 4.61 as Halscrib earlier advised. This gives a very slight edge to 9-J-J-Q using both the Prof's *and* Ras's crib averages if I am not mistaken. The 5 cut gives this hand 8 points. An 8 point improvement. And the 10 gives us 10 points for a 10 point improvement. This plus the higher crib average of 3-3 puts it over the top. But not by much I readily admit.
Inushtuk1 says: Aha! The brain fog may be lifting slightly. The average hand of 9-J-J-Q is 4.83; not 4.61 as Halscrib earlier advised. This gives a very slight edge to 9-J-J-Q using both the Prof's *and* Ras's crib averages if I am not mistaken. The 5 cut gives this hand 8 points. An 8 point improvement. And the 10 gives us 10 points for a 10 point improvement. This plus the higher crib average of 3-3 puts it over the top. But not by much I readily admit.
spunlex
206 votes

Joined: January 2017
 
 
 
Sunday 5:13 PM
Great puzzle! I'm still not sure which numbers to trust...