May 18, 2017
*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
|Total votes: 160|
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Joined: October 2008
Thursday 3:07 AM
With the Dealer well onto Fourth Street, we need to find a DEFENSIVE discard from this bunch, and our choices are limited.
In these instances, it is often wise to go "High-Low" and so I'll Toss (A T) here. This way, we still hold our Two Points and retain both the 3-4 and the 8-9 "Touching" cards, and we also get rid of the "Lone Ace," which is often a pegging liability.
After the "Worst of All" Ace Cut, we shall lead the Trey, since if it's paired we 'cover' this and can parry it with our 9 Card for (15-2).
Joined: March 2016
Thursday 3:10 AM
Toss A-10 for me today. jQT says it all.
Joined: April 2008
Thursday 3:23 AM
Defense it is all about our opponent here. Three lead. dec
Joined: April 2016
Thursday 3:39 AM
I kept the high run and tossed the gaper A-3. I must score some points or I will lose this game no matter how defensive I play.
Joined: April 2011
Thursday 4:36 AM
I'm looking for the lowest scoring discard. I think it's 3-9. RAS? I don't care if I move my pegs. All defense.
Joined: March 2008
Thursday 5:40 AM
Without the makings of a 24 hand, is onto Plan B, a defensive stand. I went wide with Ace-Ten. I think the 8 is the card to lead, but I could be persuaded the 3 better. I want the dealer no closer than hole 110 for a decent shot. If he has a 12+ hand, haste la vista baby.
Mother nature is off her medication again. Last weekend it was mid-30s and today its supposed to be 92 in Massachusetts.
Joined: June 2013
Thursday 6:24 AM
Same train of thought as Gary, I'm also going to risk 9-3. All cuts are welcome, except a 3 which does more harm than good. Prefer to see something unlikely to help the crib turned over, such as a K/Q.
After cutting to an Ace, I'll lead mine.
Joined: June 2016
Thursday 6:53 AM
I would be looking to get to hole 110 before this deal. Now I'm being forced into a defensive mode.
The lone ace is more of a liability than an asset at this point. Lead the trey and hope his hand is as bad as mine.
I also considered 3-9, but I wanted at least 2 points to keep moving forward.
Joined: September 2014
Thursday 9:45 AM
Agree with the 3-9 group today. Reasons have been well stated above.
Joined: October 2007
Thursday 3:07 PM
With opponent well into the 4th street CPZ at 99pts I think its imperative to keep the crib to a minimum. A-10 averages 4.48pts according to Schell which I think is the lowest discard average from these cards and still retains 2pts and two pairs of touching cards which are good for improvement and pegging. It will also have some negative delta as we hold a 4. So I'll keep 3-4-8-9.
Joined: July 2016
Thursday 3:22 PM
I'm with JQT and the gang. Hey wasn't that a disco group in the 70's? Lead the 3 as JQT advises. I see that we do have a "Sweet Sixteen" should Dealer reply with an X-card, and then dump his/her 5 after we counter-reply with our 4. We could play our 9 for (22) at the count of (13), but that would not be wise. So we will make the count (17) with our 4 if possible.
Joined: February 2008
Thursday 4:00 PM
At 102-99* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
3-4-8-9 is best for expected averages by 0.22pt and is also slightly best for Win %s so I'll select A-10 to discard.
After the A cut I'll lead the 3 and play Defense:
Lead______Dealer's Pegging Pts.____Win %
Although the 4 lead is fractionally lower for Dealer's Pegging Pts. the 3 lead is very slightly better for Win %s.
Joined: November 2008
Thursday 4:53 PM
With dealer already at hole 99 and RAS needing 19 points to win, my choice from the beginning was defense and to play A-4-9-10. That's why I replied much earlier in the day to glmccuskey that thought he was on to something. If you flop that over and go for offense, 3-4-8-9 is absolutely the right choice. Appreciate the many comments as think the line is very thin here as to the choice of strategy prior to seeing the starter card. For what it's worth!