May 18, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
102-99*  ?
43%
26%
6%
5%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Total votes: 160
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 3:07 AM
With the Dealer well onto Fourth Street, we need to find a DEFENSIVE discard from this bunch, and our choices are limited.

In these instances, it is often wise to go "High-Low" and so I'll Toss (A T) here. This way, we still hold our Two Points and retain both the 3-4 and the 8-9 "Touching" cards, and we also get rid of the "Lone Ace," which is often a pegging liability.

After the "Worst of All" Ace Cut, we shall lead the Trey, since if it's paired we 'cover' this and can parry it with our 9 Card for (15-2).
JQT says: Who would imagine that such a seemingly-simple Cribbage Hand as (A 3 4 8 9 T) would engender such deep discussion? Once again, RAS hits it out of the park. It's fascinating to see how the 8-9-T RUN quickly loses its charm when compared and contrasted with hands such as Keep (A 4 8 T), which begins with only a 'static' Two Points, and yet gets boosted to at least Four Points (more than the RUN-of-Three) after *any* Cut! Holding onto the RUN here also entails possibly breaking one of my cardinal rules or guidelines, which is to attempt to always avoid giving our Opponent our BEST two cards. I hope my upcoming puzzles can be this exciting: I shall be inflicting them upon you for the next three Fridays!
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 3:10 AM
Toss A-10 for me today. jQT says it all.
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 3:23 AM
Defense it is all about our opponent here. Three lead. dec
BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016

Thursday 3:39 AM
I kept the high run and tossed the gaper A-3. I must score some points or I will lose this game no matter how defensive I play.
glmccuskey
4075 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Thursday 4:36 AM
I'm looking for the lowest scoring discard. I think it's 3-9. RAS? I don't care if I move my pegs. All defense.
JQT says: Toss (3 9) is very interesting, although I don't think it's quite as safe as Toss (A T). But notice that with this arrangement, you do retain a hand that gets improved up to Four Points with ANY CUT! Therefore, this makes Keep (A 4 8 T) almost as strong of a hand as Keep (A 8 9 T) and Toss (3 4), but with a far less dangerous discard. This hand may also peg fairly well, although I don't like having that "Lone Ace" looking up at me.
glmccuskey says: JQT, wouldn't the ace be a safe lead from this mix?
bbaer1 says: Often with these mishmash hands, the correct hold is one that benefits from a ten card being cut. Think you may be on to something here Gary!
Ras2829 says: Hi glmccuskey: Maybe you're on to something here playing defense. Might not the 3-8 be the better choice if leaning that way? The last two puzzles I've submitted give a distinct clue as to why the inventor of this game, Sir John Suckling, committed suicide in his mid 30's. Must have Looked like the easy way out!
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 5:40 AM
Without the makings of a 24 hand, is onto Plan B, a defensive stand. I went wide with Ace-Ten. I think the 8 is the card to lead, but I could be persuaded the 3 better. I want the dealer no closer than hole 110 for a decent shot. If he has a 12+ hand, haste la vista baby.

Mother nature is off her medication again. Last weekend it was mid-30s and today its supposed to be 92 in Massachusetts.
Guest says: Here, too.
Ras2829 says: Hi Gougie00: Looks like this is widespread - from winter to summer in a single day or two! Was 34 here with snow level down toe 3000 feet - now we're looking at temps suddenly in mid 80's perhaps. We're about 50 miles from the Pacific Ocean as a crow flies.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras and Gougie. Just got back from Alaska and now it's 30C, feels like 36C in Montreal. That's 86, feels like 98F. Insane.
JQT says: Not to worry, My Friend: I've recently been informed from a highly-reliable source that we are to receive one 'Last Blast' of winter cold, which promises to mess up any mid-May weekend plans for anyone living from Ottawa on down to Ohio, and those who reside anywhere between Halifax and Hartford. And so don't put away those galoshes just yet!
Inushtuk1 says: Hi JQT. My galoshes are always within arms reach my friend.
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Thursday 6:24 AM
Same train of thought as Gary, I'm also going to risk 9-3. All cuts are welcome, except a 3 which does more harm than good. Prefer to see something unlikely to help the crib turned over, such as a K/Q.

After cutting to an Ace, I'll lead mine.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 6:53 AM
I would be looking to get to hole 110 before this deal. Now I'm being forced into a defensive mode.

The lone ace is more of a liability than an asset at this point. Lead the trey and hope his hand is as bad as mine.

I also considered 3-9, but I wanted at least 2 points to keep moving forward.
duke62
1482 votes

Joined: September 2014

 
 
 
Thursday 9:45 AM
Agree with the 3-9 group today. Reasons have been well stated above.
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Thursday 3:07 PM
With opponent well into the 4th street CPZ at 99pts I think its imperative to keep the crib to a minimum. A-10 averages 4.48pts according to Schell which I think is the lowest discard average from these cards and still retains 2pts and two pairs of touching cards which are good for improvement and pegging. It will also have some negative delta as we hold a 4. So I'll keep 3-4-8-9.
Inushtuk1
1464 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 3:22 PM
I'm with JQT and the gang. Hey wasn't that a disco group in the 70's? Lead the 3 as JQT advises. I see that we do have a "Sweet Sixteen" should Dealer reply with an X-card, and then dump his/her 5 after we counter-reply with our 4. We could play our 9 for (22) at the count of (13), but that would not be wise. So we will make the count (17) with our 4 if possible.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 4:00 PM
At 102-99* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___Win %
3-4-8-9___4.54+1.63+(-4.26)=1.91____23.5
A-3-4-10__5.00+2.09+(-5.40)=1.69____20.4
A-4-9-10__4.72+1.57+(-4.61)=1.68____23.1
4-8-9-10__5.24+1.30+(-4.90)=1.64____22.8

3-4-8-9 is best for expected averages by 0.22pt and is also slightly best for Win %s so I'll select A-10 to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead the 3 and play Defense:

Lead______Dealer's Pegging Pts.____Win %
4_______________(-2.35)____________12.6
3_______________(-2.38)____________12.7
8_______________(-3.12)____________11.8
9_______________(-3.14)____________11.3

Although the 4 lead is fractionally lower for Dealer's Pegging Pts. the 3 lead is very slightly better for Win %s.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 4:53 PM
With dealer already at hole 99 and RAS needing 19 points to win, my choice from the beginning was defense and to play A-4-9-10. That's why I replied much earlier in the day to glmccuskey that thought he was on to something. If you flop that over and go for offense, 3-4-8-9 is absolutely the right choice. Appreciate the many comments as think the line is very thin here as to the choice of strategy prior to seeing the starter card. For what it's worth!