May 18, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
102-99*  ?
43%
26%
6%
5%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Total votes: 160

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JQT
2045 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Thursday 3:07 AM
With the Dealer well onto Fourth Street, we need to find a DEFENSIVE discard from this bunch, and our choices are limited.

In these instances, it is often wise to go "High-Low" and so I'll Toss (A T) here. This way, we still hold our Two Points and retain both the 3-4 and the 8-9 "Touching" cards, and we also get rid of the "Lone Ace," which is often a pegging liability.

After the "Worst of All" Ace Cut, we shall lead the Trey, since if it's paired we 'cover' this and can parry it with our 9 Card for (15-2).
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Rosemarie44
551 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Thursday 3:10 AM
Toss A-10 for me today. jQT says it all.
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dec
3703 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Thursday 3:23 AM
Defense it is all about our opponent here. Three lead. dec
Reply
BigFoot Bob
480 votes

Joined: April 2016

   
Thursday 3:39 AM
I kept the high run and tossed the gaper A-3. I must score some points or I will lose this game no matter how defensive I play.
Reply
glmccuskey
2370 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Thursday 4:36 AM
I'm looking for the lowest scoring discard. I think it's 3-9. RAS? I don't care if I move my pegs. All defense.
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Gougie00
3235 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Thursday 5:40 AM
Without the makings of a 24 hand, is onto Plan B, a defensive stand. I went wide with Ace-Ten. I think the 8 is the card to lead, but I could be persuaded the 3 better. I want the dealer no closer than hole 110 for a decent shot. If he has a 12+ hand, haste la vista baby.

Mother nature is off her medication again. Last weekend it was mid-30s and today its supposed to be 92 in Massachusetts.
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james500
1500 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Thursday 6:24 AM
Same train of thought as Gary, I'm also going to risk 9-3. All cuts are welcome, except a 3 which does more harm than good. Prefer to see something unlikely to help the crib turned over, such as a K/Q.

After cutting to an Ace, I'll lead mine.
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JRCeagle78
273 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Thursday 6:53 AM
I would be looking to get to hole 110 before this deal. Now I'm being forced into a defensive mode.

The lone ace is more of a liability than an asset at this point. Lead the trey and hope his hand is as bad as mine.

I also considered 3-9, but I wanted at least 2 points to keep moving forward.
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duke62
754 votes

Joined: September 2014

   
Thursday 9:45 AM
Agree with the 3-9 group today. Reasons have been well stated above.
Reply
Coeurdelion
3204 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Thursday 3:07 PM
With opponent well into the 4th street CPZ at 99pts I think its imperative to keep the crib to a minimum. A-10 averages 4.48pts according to Schell which I think is the lowest discard average from these cards and still retains 2pts and two pairs of touching cards which are good for improvement and pegging. It will also have some negative delta as we hold a 4. So I'll keep 3-4-8-9.
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Inushtuk1
314 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Thursday 3:22 PM
I'm with JQT and the gang. Hey wasn't that a disco group in the 70's? Lead the 3 as JQT advises. I see that we do have a "Sweet Sixteen" should Dealer reply with an X-card, and then dump his/her 5 after we counter-reply with our 4. We could play our 9 for (22) at the count of (13), but that would not be wise. So we will make the count (17) with our 4 if possible.
Reply
HalscribCLX
2949 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Thursday 4:00 PM
At 102-99* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___Win %
3-4-8-9___4.54+1.63+(-4.26)=1.91____23.5
A-3-4-10__5.00+2.09+(-5.40)=1.69____20.4
A-4-9-10__4.72+1.57+(-4.61)=1.68____23.1
4-8-9-10__5.24+1.30+(-4.90)=1.64____22.8

3-4-8-9 is best for expected averages by 0.22pt and is also slightly best for Win %s so I'll select A-10 to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead the 3 and play Defense:

Lead______Dealer's Pegging Pts.____Win %
4_______________(-2.35)____________12.6
3_______________(-2.38)____________12.7
8_______________(-3.12)____________11.8
9_______________(-3.14)____________11.3

Although the 4 lead is fractionally lower for Dealer's Pegging Pts. the 3 lead is very slightly better for Win %s.
Reply
Ras2829
2730 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Thursday 4:53 PM
With dealer already at hole 99 and RAS needing 19 points to win, my choice from the beginning was defense and to play A-4-9-10. That's why I replied much earlier in the day to glmccuskey that thought he was on to something. If you flop that over and go for offense, 3-4-8-9 is absolutely the right choice. Appreciate the many comments as think the line is very thin here as to the choice of strategy prior to seeing the starter card. For what it's worth!
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