May 18, 2017
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Total votes: 160 |
JQT 4136 votes Joined: October 2008 |
    Thursday 3:07 AM
With the Dealer well onto Fourth Street, we need to find a DEFENSIVE discard from this bunch, and our choices are limited.
In these instances, it is often wise to go "High-Low" and so I'll Toss (A T) here. This way, we still hold our Two Points and retain both the 3-4 and the 8-9 "Touching" cards, and we also get rid of the "Lone Ace," which is often a pegging liability. After the "Worst of All" Ace Cut, we shall lead the Trey, since if it's paired we 'cover' this and can parry it with our 9 Card for (15-2). JQT says: Who would imagine that such a seemingly-simple Cribbage Hand as (A 3 4 8 9 T) would engender such deep discussion? Once again, RAS hits it out of the park. It's fascinating to see how the 8-9-T RUN quickly loses its charm when compared and contrasted with hands such as Keep (A 4 8 T), which begins with only a 'static' Two Points, and yet gets boosted to at least Four Points (more than the RUN-of-Three) after *any* Cut! Holding onto the RUN here also entails possibly breaking one of my cardinal rules or guidelines, which is to attempt to always avoid giving our Opponent our BEST two cards. I hope my upcoming puzzles can be this exciting: I shall be inflicting them upon you for the next three Fridays! |
Rosemarie44 2051 votes Joined: March 2016 |
    Thursday 3:10 AM
Toss A-10 for me today. jQT says it all. |
dec 6327 votes Joined: April 2008 |
    Thursday 3:23 AM
Defense it is all about our opponent here. Three lead. dec |
BigFoot Bob 624 votes Joined: April 2016 |
Thursday 3:39 AM
I kept the high run and tossed the gaper A-3. I must score some points or I will lose this game no matter how defensive I play. |
glmccuskey 4075 votes Joined: April 2011 |
    Thursday 4:36 AM
I'm looking for the lowest scoring discard. I think it's 3-9. RAS? I don't care if I move my pegs. All defense. JQT says: Toss (3 9) is very interesting, although I don't think it's quite as safe as Toss (A T). But notice that with this arrangement, you do retain a hand that gets improved up to Four Points with ANY CUT! Therefore, this makes Keep (A 4 8 T) almost as strong of a hand as Keep (A 8 9 T) and Toss (3 4), but with a far less dangerous discard. This hand may also peg fairly well, although I don't like having that "Lone Ace" looking up at me. glmccuskey says: JQT, wouldn't the ace be a safe lead from this mix? bbaer1 says: Often with these mishmash hands, the correct hold is one that benefits from a ten card being cut. Think you may be on to something here Gary! Ras2829 says: Hi glmccuskey: Maybe you're on to something here playing defense. Might not the 3-8 be the better choice if leaning that way? The last two puzzles I've submitted give a distinct clue as to why the inventor of this game, Sir John Suckling, committed suicide in his mid 30's. Must have Looked like the easy way out! |
Gougie00 5702 votes Joined: March 2008 |
    Thursday 5:40 AM
Without the makings of a 24 hand, is onto Plan B, a defensive stand. I went wide with Ace-Ten. I think the 8 is the card to lead, but I could be persuaded the 3 better. I want the dealer no closer than hole 110 for a decent shot. If he has a 12+ hand, haste la vista baby.
Mother nature is off her medication again. Last weekend it was mid-30s and today its supposed to be 92 in Massachusetts. Guest says: Here, too. Ras2829 says: Hi Gougie00: Looks like this is widespread - from winter to summer in a single day or two! Was 34 here with snow level down toe 3000 feet - now we're looking at temps suddenly in mid 80's perhaps. We're about 50 miles from the Pacific Ocean as a crow flies. Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras and Gougie. Just got back from Alaska and now it's 30C, feels like 36C in Montreal. That's 86, feels like 98F. Insane. JQT says: Not to worry, My Friend: I've recently been informed from a highly-reliable source that we are to receive one 'Last Blast' of winter cold, which promises to mess up any mid-May weekend plans for anyone living from Ottawa on down to Ohio, and those who reside anywhere between Halifax and Hartford. And so don't put away those galoshes just yet! Inushtuk1 says: Hi JQT. My galoshes are always within arms reach my friend. |
james500 3895 votes Joined: June 2013 |
    Thursday 6:24 AM
Same train of thought as Gary, I'm also going to risk 9-3. All cuts are welcome, except a 3 which does more harm than good. Prefer to see something unlikely to help the crib turned over, such as a K/Q.
After cutting to an Ace, I'll lead mine. |
JRCeagle78 1054 votes Joined: June 2016 |
    Thursday 6:53 AM
I would be looking to get to hole 110 before this deal. Now I'm being forced into a defensive mode.
The lone ace is more of a liability than an asset at this point. Lead the trey and hope his hand is as bad as mine. I also considered 3-9, but I wanted at least 2 points to keep moving forward. |
duke62 1482 votes Joined: September 2014 |
    Thursday 9:45 AM
Agree with the 3-9 group today. Reasons have been well stated above.
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Coeurdelion 5574 votes Joined: October 2007 |
    Thursday 3:07 PM
With opponent well into the 4th street CPZ at 99pts I think its imperative to keep the crib to a minimum. A-10 averages 4.48pts according to Schell which I think is the lowest discard average from these cards and still retains 2pts and two pairs of touching cards which are good for improvement and pegging. It will also have some negative delta as we hold a 4. So I'll keep 3-4-8-9. |
Inushtuk1 1464 votes Joined: July 2016 |
    Thursday 3:22 PM
I'm with JQT and the gang. Hey wasn't that a disco group in the 70's? Lead the 3 as JQT advises. I see that we do have a "Sweet Sixteen" should Dealer reply with an X-card, and then dump his/her 5 after we counter-reply with our 4. We could play our 9 for (22) at the count of (13), but that would not be wise. So we will make the count (17) with our 4 if possible.
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HalscribCLX 5297 votes Joined: February 2008 |
    Thursday 4:00 PM
At 102-99* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
_______________Our Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___Win % 3-4-8-9___4.54+1.63+(-4.26)=1.91____23.5 A-3-4-10__5.00+2.09+(-5.40)=1.69____20.4 A-4-9-10__4.72+1.57+(-4.61)=1.68____23.1 4-8-9-10__5.24+1.30+(-4.90)=1.64____22.8 3-4-8-9 is best for expected averages by 0.22pt and is also slightly best for Win %s so I'll select A-10 to discard. After the A cut I'll lead the 3 and play Defense: Lead______Dealer's Pegging Pts.____Win % 4_______________(-2.35)____________12.6 3_______________(-2.38)____________12.7 8_______________(-3.12)____________11.8 9_______________(-3.14)____________11.3 Although the 4 lead is fractionally lower for Dealer's Pegging Pts. the 3 lead is very slightly better for Win %s. |
Ras2829 5125 votes Joined: November 2008 |
    Thursday 4:53 PM
With dealer already at hole 99 and RAS needing 19 points to win, my choice from the beginning was defense and to play A-4-9-10. That's why I replied much earlier in the day to glmccuskey that thought he was on to something. If you flop that over and go for offense, 3-4-8-9 is absolutely the right choice. Appreciate the many comments as think the line is very thin here as to the choice of strategy prior to seeing the starter card. For what it's worth! |