Wednesday 3:27 AM

Kept the better of the two pegging hands 2-3-5-K and started with 4 points in the hand before the cut. The combined values of toss 6-8 are 11.89 points and 2-3, 11.88 points (avg. exp. hand and crib values)
By tossing 2-3 the value of the hand is reduced to 2 points (before cut) and the avg. exp. hand is 4.74 points vs. 7.26 points for toss 6-8.
There may be a lesson on today's hand.

   

Wednesday 3:36 AM

Close call, tempting to throw 23. Remember Ras writing about middle cards with this type of hand, 235X: 68, 77, 78, 89 go the crib.

   

Wednesday 4:27 AM

We are trailing scores and positions but not that much to seperate from the sacrafice rule 3-5. Gor for ten pointer and hope for a crib fill. dec

   

Wednesday 4:27 AM

typo 2/3. dec

   

Wednesday 4:31 AM

I'm not sacrificing any points to put 2-3 in my crib. This could peg well against face cards. I'm in full offenseive mode.

   

Wednesday 4:53 AM

In hands such as this (2-3-5-X with two middle cards), combined values will favor tossing the two middle cards except for the 7-9. Discard 6-8, 7-7, 7-8, or 8-9 to own crib. When the 7-9 shows up in the middle, it's time to discard the 2-3. You'll be surprised how often this works out better than you expect. I've chosen an offense strategy and will take what I can in the pegging sequences. Would play this hand this way in most positions on the board. Only deviation would ben end-game situations where it appears that I can win only by pegging. Then RAS would retain 2-3-6-8.

   

Wednesday 4:54 AM

Thought about putting 23 in my crib but opted for 68. Optimal cut gives me 6 points. I'm behind by 11 and will peg offensively. The 5 cut means there are some points in the crib as well.

   

Wednesday 6:08 AM

2 3 will do me more good in my crib than in my hand. That's more story and I'm sticking to it. Only one X card in my hand and a 5 was cut. Gotta believe pone has a decent hand. Will wait until first card show by pone before deciding how aggressive to peg this. Feeling like optimal with a bent towards offense.

   

Wednesday 7:13 AM

I briefly looked at throwing 6-8 into my crib, but chasing after a 7 from my opponent or the cut card does not usually work out. With a 6 a more likely discard from my opponent, I chose 3-6. I may have sacrificed some pegging strength

   

Wednesday 11:10 AM

My good friend Glmccuskey has taught me how to toss this one.

   

Wednesday 1:07 PM

Both 2-3 and 5-6 justify a two point reduction in hand score, so either should be acceptable here. I'll go with 2-3.

   

Wednesday 2:45 PM

The obvious discard is 6-8 but perhaps 2-3 is worth examining:

2-3-5-K: 4pts + 4½pts (Schell; 4.63) = 8½pts

5-6-8-K: 2pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 8¾pts

Potential:

2-3-5-K: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 555, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 7/8/10pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 555+ 15xXs = 32 cuts.

5-6-8-K: Improves with AAAA, 222, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 15xXs = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 7/8pts with 4444, 7777 = 8 cuts.

Pegging:

2-3-5-K should peg better with 3 low cards and a high card.

Position:

We're very nearly in 3rd street CPZ 69-73 but Pone is 11pts ahead so I'll play Offense to try to gain the advantage.

Summary:

2-3-5-K starts with ¼pt less than 5-6-8-K and it has fewer cuts for improvement but 2-3-5-K has a better maximum with 6 cuts for 10pts (555, KKK) and 32 cuts for 7-10pts. Also it should peg better. So I'll throw the suited 6-8.

   

Wednesday 3:07 PM

At 68*-79 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s sre:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W3 %___W4 %
5-6-8-K___4.74+3.96+6.87=15.57____6.1____26.1
2-3-5-K___7.26+3.46+4.80=15.52____4.8____24.0
2-3-8-K___4.70+3.09+6.72=14.51____4.3____23.4

Offense_______L3 %___L4 %
5-6-8-K_______23.7___63.1
2-3-5-K_______23.0___60.5
2-3-8-K_______21.5___62.9

2-3-5-K is 0.05pt lower than 5-6-8-K but it is best for Win %s and Loss %s which take account of the board position at this critical stage of the game. So I'll select 6-8 to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

   

Wednesday 3:58 PM

I chose to discard the 2-3.

   

Wednesday 9:49 PM

Tossed the 2-3 which can product a good crib.