July 20, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Inushtuk1
67-45*  ?
82%
5%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 175
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 3:05 AM
I can see the concern of tossing 7-8. I believe Halscrib computations will have this as the choice still. Two things I would like to know now. Skunk probabilities before the cut and the lead card after the cut. My choice is the three full throttle still. dec
Guest says: Opponent is 22 points behind, no brainer. But even if tied, I would not throw away a double run on fear of giving opponent a good crib.
Guest says: Also,, my experience with karma 8/10 times, if I give opponent a 15 in his crib, I get rewarded with the cut; just like now, double double.
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 3:07 AM
I, too would rather have a hand that starts at 8 points and has a maximum of 16 points than one that starts at 3 points and has a maximum of 10 points. (all before the cut).
BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 5:24 AM
I am tossing the 7-8 over the board even though it may give the dealer a chance for a good hand. I can afford to play that game with my lead and long as the pone does do what The_Bee_Mann did to me Tuesday scoring 24 with 6-7-7-8-8.

WOW No Sixteens for Sixteen.
Guest says: You mean No 15's for 16.
glmccuskey
4095 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Thursday 5:26 AM
I have a big lead and it's fixing to get bigger. Unless there is a big change I'm on the offensive for the rest of this game. Lead the three.
spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 9:48 AM
Yep, with this big of a lead will toss 7 8.
Even if Dealer moves down the board 34 pts this deal, we are still going to be favored to win this game.
No need to take any risks during the pegging. Optimal
Inushtuk1
1481 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 11:41 AM
This was from a game I played last September. Boy did I mess it up. I tossed the (A-7) as it is slightly better using Ras's crib averages. I did not have the mental wherewithal to record the play of the hand. Surely I led the 3, but after that I don't remember what happened. I did however record the fact that the cut was a Q, and Dealer tossed (3-5) to the crib. My (A-7) gave him/her a 4 point crib. Had I tossed the *correct* (7-8), s/he would have scored only 2 more points in his/her crib. That would have been 12 in my hand and 6 in the Dealer's crib for a net of plus 6 for me. As it turned out I scored only 5 in my hand and gave the Dealer 4 in the crib for a net of only plus one for me. Lesson learned. I will keep the double run next time.
jmath714
1297 votes

Joined: January 2012
 
 
 
Thursday 11:45 AM
For the 5% of the time tossing aggressively burns me and I lose this game, it will get me a win and skunk 2-3 times as much.
Inushtuk1 says: I am sure you are right jmath714. I will bear that in mind the next time.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Thursday 12:20 PM
I really don't want to throw 7-8 or 2-3 but in this position I don't think we need to throw defensively as we have a 22pt lead and will get past 3rd street par-hole. So I'll ignore defensive throws like A-8 and A-7 and risk the 7-8. We have a good chance of a dozen with 9999 + 16xXs and 15/16pts with AA, 222. 333. Not only that, it should peg well so I think its well worth the risk. Nice cut! 8-)
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 12:40 PM
At 67-45* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense__Hand___Pegs____Crib___Total___W4 %___W5 %
A-A-2-3__11.39+(-2.28)+(-7.39)=1.72____52.1___85.9
A-2-3-8___6.13+(-2.52)+(-4.26)=(-0.65)_31.8___73.3
A-2-3-7___6.17+(-2.59)+(-4.28)=(-0.70)_32.0___73.8

Defense______L4 %____L5 %
A-A-2-3______1.9_____1.8
A-2-3-8______0.7_____3.0
A-2-3-7______0.7_____2.9

A-A-2-3 is 2.37pts best for expected averages and is massively better for Win %s and over the two deals is slightly better for Loss %s as well. So I'll select 7-8 to discaard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead_______Net Pegging Pts.
3_______________1.64
2_______________1.30
A_______________1.02
Inushtuk1 says: Hi HalscribCLX. Do you have skunk probabilities before the cut, as per dec's request?
Ras2829
5147 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 1:04 PM
Eleven of 13 ranks (1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, and K) tally 10-16 points with these cards. Might in an end-game scenario play A-2-3-8 needing three pegs or less to win as dealer. Other places on the board, would you hold three points (A-2-3-7 or A-2-3-8) in preference to A-A-2-3 for 8 points? With a 22-point lead, it's offense, offense, and offense for me. Will lead the trey. Not likely with this small double run that RAS can get the Aces in back to back pegging although that will be my effort.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. In answer to your question; how about 111-89*? Or 111-90*? Or 111-91*? With Dealer this close to 4th Street, or on 4th Street, there seems no need to risk a 24 point crib here, should we fall short of the game hole. A-2-3-8, or A-2-3-7 may be the better choice at those scores. But most places on the board, with or without the big lead, I will just keep the double run from now on.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: See no difference in any one of these three positions,, hold the 8 points with high percentage cut for 10 or more points. That has to be preferable to holding 3 points with either the A-2-3-7 or A-2-3-8. What am I missing?
Inushtuk1 says: It's probably me who is just being too defensive.
Ras2829
5147 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 1:05 PM
Guess that ought to be 10 of 13 ranks as 5-6-7 add nothing to this small double run.
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Thursday 1:32 PM
My position is good, so I won't risk the 7-8. Seems most are braver than I am.

I'd lead the 3.
The_Bee_Mann
306 votes

Joined: November 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 4:53 PM
I have been burned too many times putting a 7-8 into the crib. I will discard the A and 8. Maybe a 5 will be cut.