July 22, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by cwed
56-26*  ?
72%
18%
4%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 148
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Saturday 3:11 AM
Every cut increases the value of this hand except a 7. Expected average hand is 9.11 points and a combined value of 3.22 points (exp. average hand minus crib).
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Saturday 3:34 AM
I'll try 8-9 rather than 8-5.

4 lead from my 4-2-5 eleven.
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 3:49 AM
Back postings from other querries have mentioned 8-9 as an average risk discard . Better then throwing a five, keeping the same amount to start and to attempt to keep dealer back a three card defensive eleven. dec
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 5:34 AM
30 points ahead means I can be carefree with the discard. Since there isnt an obvious discard here, I'll chance tossing the 89 and hold the flush. Lead the 4, and play off.
Samgash
398 votes

Joined: November 2016

 
 
 
Saturday 5:49 AM
It pays. It pays. It pays to flush. Happy Saturday.
Guest says: Another Kohler hand
Inushtuk1 says: As the Toledo kid used to say, "The Kohler flush."
glmccuskey
4075 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Saturday 5:49 AM
I'll lead the four.
BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016

 
 
 
Saturday 6:12 AM
With the strong position I will avoid tossing the connecting 8-9. It appears I am out in the woods with my choice and will hide behind a tree this morning.
Guest says: I'll hide with you. I did the same thing.
Inushtuk1 says: I'll hide with you two. I kept the flush, but led the 9! We're going to need a bigger tree.
Inushtuk1
1464 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Saturday 7:46 AM
With a sweet 30 point lead will play a bit of offense. But there is certainly no need to toss a (5-8). Must protect that lead as well. (5-8) has a much higher crib average than (8-9) and can never be less than 2.

Lead the 9! Remember what Ras said a while back about leading the 8 or 9 when you have three cards with a rank of 5 or less. Good things sometimes happen. The 9 is a component of the three card eleven.
Guest says: hmmm...I always think of Joy Shimp teaching me "never, ever lead a 9--it just gets you into trouble!" ; and Jeff Shimp teaching me not to worry about tossing 9's into the crib. S:)
Inushtuk1 says: Hi S. You are most definitely right that the 9 is considered the worst lead in cribbage; and I would avoid it on defense. The proper defensive lead is the 4 from the three card eleven. But the 9 is a great *offensive* lead as long as you have a plan. The most common responses. To a 9 lead are a 6, Q, K, A, 2, 4, and a 5. We will draw first blood on the last four of those seven ranks. "But Inush", you say; "whenever I lead a 9 my opponent *always* plays a 6". Really? There's only 4 in the deck. She can't always have one. Suppose she has one. What's the worst that can happen? (15-2) right? I'll dump my 4 for a count of (19). If Dealer plays a 5 for (24-3), I am now down 5 pegs. But my 5 recoups two of those points. The count is now (29). He is showing a 5 and a 6. I don't think he has a 2. My 2 now scores (31-2). Hopefully Dealer only scores one more for last card. If so I am outpegged 4-6. At this score I am prepared to live with that. I could go on and on, as I am wont to do, with other Dealer responses to a 9 lead, but do not want to bore everyone. I fear I may have already done so.
Hillchem says: I find that the par holes or critical position holes lend themselves nicely to skunks as well as wins. In this game, the closer we can get to 69-70, the better off we will be of course, so we will play offensively. But if we look at dealer's score, we see again, there is no reason to play defensively. Dealer is sure to get past 33, and as long as she is doesn't get 25 to 30 on this deal, we are in great shape.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Hillchem. Well said. Long time no see. No doubt quite busy with the prof.
Hillchem says: Definitely still reading daily or every other day. Busy with a few things these days: two young kids adjusting to a lot of extra free time on their hands with school out, and I'm teaching math at Summer school right now. More than anything though, I find that by morning on the west coast everyone has done such a terrific analysis, I don't have anything new to add.
Hillchem says: That being said, I have been busy with the cribbage prof program, and I am absolutely getting my butt kicked even with the hints turned on. It is a humbling experience; I can't remember the current numbers, but I don't think I've won even 45% of the games.I think my discarding has been getting lot of practice and lessons here over the last few years, but my pegging is losing me a lot of games. I think if I make some more time for myself here, I will focus nearly entire on comments and queries on the play.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: You have some great company today on the choice of the 9 lead with HalscribCLX. Will have add this to my list when pegging offensively. Although .21 seems insignificant, the differences in choices are often expressed in tenths of a point. Once adding all those 10ths together as to hand retention, discarding, and pegging values a large number of points emerge over 100 deals.
Hillchem
2890 votes

Joined: April 2015

 
 
 
Saturday 9:20 AM
I am very excited to have registered for my very first sanctioned tournament. My grassroots club will be hosting a one-day event on Aug 12 in Surrey, BC, Canada. Anyone here like Vancouver? Held just 35 km away from downtown Vancouver, and about 7 minutes from the I5 highway in washington (depending on border traffic). Can't wait.
Hillchem says: https://www.ourcribbageclub.org/component/rseventspro/event/56-first-annual-gordon-reid-memorial
Inushtuk1 says: Yes I just got my July CW on Monday, and was delighted to see that tourney on the schedule. It's a shame I live so far away. I *will* be going to J's Crab Shack in Hartford, CT on August 6th however. So did you know Gordon Reid?
Hillchem says: It would be nice to add some more Canadian content on the cribbage schedule. I hope to maybe start making some trips south in the next year or two too. Lots of tournaments within driving distance for a day or a weekend. Hopefully meet RAS at his tournament soon.
Hillchem says: Yes, I did have the pleasure to meet, know and play Gordon. He ran the Cloverdale Cribbage Club when I joined and he taught me the ins and outs of grassroots play. He loved the discussion and debate about decisions during the game and was a fiery competitor. The club is now run by his widow, Miriam, as well as Wayne Albertson, and Egon Koch. Did you ever meet Gordon?
Inushtuk1 says: No, I can't say I ever had the pleasure. But I see where Miriam and Wayne are the directors of this tournament. Is this the inaugural tourney?
Hillchem says: Yes first one. Hopefully it will go well and become an event that people will want to come to year after year!
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 10:08 AM
It's been said very well by others above. With a 30-point lead, it's offense, offense, offense for me. It pays to flush and this is a pretty good one as value increases with 12 of the 13 ranks. As with all flushes the remaining cards in suit will add value regardless of rank. Will lead the four; deuce would be my second choice. Regarding the 9 being the worst lead in cribbage, agree with some exceptions. If needing pegs, lead the 9 from 2-3-4-9, 2-3-3-9, 3-3-3-9 or similar. High percentage chance to get the count to 22 on your second card played. Then you can follow how that might unwind.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. I take then that my 9 may not have been such a good idea after all.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: Your 9 lead from 2-4-5 will work for a nice run occasionally. The five spot is just a bit too large to make it work very often. Try it when you desperately need pegs and it will reward you from time to time. With a 30-point lead and very slim chance to make the nine lead work here, would lead the more conventional four spot. Always nice to see you thinking "out side of the box" and don't want to discourage that in any way.
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks Ras. Sometimes I'm so far outside the box, I'm in another playground. As in sandbox.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi again Ras. With regards to the 2-3-3-9. I don't believe I have ever held those particular four cards. Can you give me an example of what the two remaining cards would have to be, for me to want to keep 2-3-3-9, apart from an end-game scenario.
Inushtuk1 says: Of course if we were dealing with 2-3-3-5-5-9, then the 2-3-3-9 makes sense. But we are Pone today. I can't come up with a good example for Pone to keep 2-3-3-9. I don't believe I've ever seen it kept as Pone on this site.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushjtuk1. If one plays 100 games a week, might have a couple of times to hold this hand. The most frequent occurrence I experience is 2-3-3-6-8-9 with opponent dealing. The other examples are far more frequent and can be expanded to included 9-3-3-4, etc. A-2-3-9 with the 9 lead does not work well if dealer has a five spot though scores a nice run with a go if dealer has X-X-X-X. Having said that, RAS generally does consider a 9 spot a poor lead. In live play often see the 9 led in preference to the 6 which means when dealer plays a 6 for 15-2, non dealer to stay even pairs the 6 for a count of 21. Who knows where it goes after that? Certainly offers a lot of opportunities to score 31-2.
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks Ras for that 2-3-3-6-8-9 example, and the 3-3-4-9, lead a 9 on offense, which was not mentioned in your You Tube video classes.
Inushtuk1 says: Aha! No wonder I've never seen it. I've always tossed (2-8), keeping the 3-3-6-9, with a lower average hand, and fewer cuts for improvement. Better for its expected average, but 2-3-3-9 pegs better offensively, defensively and optimally. So it is the better choice. I'll be on the look-out for that hand from now on.
Coeurdelion
5573 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Saturday 10:59 AM
5-8 or 8-9S to starts with 6pts:

2-4-5-9H: 6pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.86) = +¼pt

2-4-9-9: 6pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.30) = -½pt

Potential:

2-4-5-9H: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 444, 555, 6666, 888, 99 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 10/11pts with 222, 3333, 444, 6666, 99 = 16 cuts.

2-4-9-9: Improves with 222, 3333, 444, 6666, 99 = 16 cuts = 34.8% up to 9/10/12pts with all cuts.

Pegging:

I think the flush will peg better and be harder to read.

Position:

We have a substantial lead of a whole street. Depending on whether we needed a skunk or not I'll play Defense for the pegging.

Summary:

2-4-5-9H starts with ¾pt more than 2-4-9-9, has very much better potential and although the maximum is slightly lower it still has 16 cuts for a good hand. Also it ought to peg slightly better even if pegging Defensively. So I'll throw the 8-9S.
HalscribCLX
5296 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 11:39 AM
At 56-26* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W5 %____W6 %
2-4-5-9H__9.11+1.46+(-5.36)=5.21____40.6____86.3
2-4-9-9___7.65+1.11+(-6.27)=2.49____31.0____81.0

Offense______L5 %____L6 %
2-4-5-9H_____1.0_____3.8
2-4-9-9______0.7_____4.0

2-4-5-9H is 2.72pts better for expected averages and is very much better for Win %s and only worse for Loss %s by the slimmest of margins. So I'll select 8-9S to discard.

After the K cut I'll lead the 9 and play Offense:

Lead______Our Pegging Pts.
9_______________1.77
5_______________1.56
2_______________1.48
4_______________1.31
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Saturday 2:00 PM
Is there an alternative?
The_Bee_Mann
306 votes

Joined: November 2016

 
 
 
Saturday 6:27 PM
I couldn't give the dealer a 8-9. I always get nervous with such a discard. I will discard the 5-8. Still risky but not as risky as two touching cards.
Ras2829 says: BTW choices in this game often differ for a variety of reasons. RAS just plays the numbers. Discarding to opponent 5-8 has an average of 6.393 (178) 77/91 scores two points (never less)7.79% and scores 8 or more 27.399%. The 8-9 averages 5.891 (699) 66/91,scores 2 or less 29.76% and scores 8 or more 22.723%. Ranking the 91 discards lowest scoring to highest scoring, there are only 14 choices that score more than 5-8 and 25 that score more than 8-9. Admittedly don't like either and have not tossed either frequently although have discarded/recorded 5-8 178 times and the 8-9 has made the journey across the board 699 times. Other discard tables show similar results.