August 15, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by jqt
112-115*  ?
35%
26%
13%
13%
4%
3%
1%
0%
Total votes: 167
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:15 AM
As pone: we have the advantage of counting first; need a total of 9 points to go out; and, need to hold dealer to 5 or 6 points depending on how you look at it..
Like this hand as it adds up to "11".
spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:40 AM
Ace 4 or 5 gets us out. If it was our crib we could do some pegging damage with the 3 Aces, but no.
dec
6328 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:45 AM
Ace five six gives us enough. Seven or eight gets us to deadhole with opefully a peg on ho or last card. Now have to hope for a seven or eight lead. dec
BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:57 AM
Tossing the gapers just in case the crib is looked at. Lead the eight and hope the dealer kept all paint cards and close the game out with A/29, A/30 for two, A/31 for six and a go. Bye~Bye. Ha Ha I must be dreaming.
cwed says: Bob: you are dreaming. You are the pone, so there is no way you can play your three Aces together.
Guest says: Opps, made a mistake this morning.
Guest says: Only made one mistake and that's when I thought I did
Jazzselke
2570 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:34 AM
One less point but more cards to hit. Led the Ace and hope the oppponent has a couple middle cards.
Rosemarie44 says: Hi Jazzselke: I thought of this point but, wouldn't this hand also give more hits for dealer to peg off of.
Guest says: Looks like I am the only one agreeing with you so far, Jazzman. I'm figuring I can't peg much with those 3 aces, and needed to pick up a couple early on---until that Jack cut! S :)
Guest says: But you opponent can't peg much either, and they're closer to the finish line. Clearly, keeping 3 aces is the most popular choice when you add up the 3 options for the 4th card.
glmccuskey
4076 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:46 AM
I kept the nine to lead and get the count as high as possible. I only need to pair one of my aces at the end of the count.
Gougie00
5703 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:10 AM
Stick a fork in me, I'm done. Nothing helps aces. Much better off with the 789 which might catch another middle card. The Jack certainly doesnt help. Lead the 7 and pray for a miracle.

The "isolated chance of rain" isolated me. The garden seems to like it. My cat doesnt.
jmath714
1290 votes

Joined: January 2012

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:21 AM
Interestingly enough 13 cuts for both this and a789 to get to 8 points or more.
jmath714 says: Actually 16 cuts to 8 or more with this hand. Miscounted .
Guest says: A, 3333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 999
jmath714 says: 20! I forgot about the 3s. Even better that way.
Inushtuk1
1465 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 8:56 AM
Expected averages mean nothing, as it is highly unlikely Dealer will show his crib. But just in case I did toss two black Aces. Maybe he'll think he has a flush and I win with overpegs.

Highest average hand means very little as well. The only thing that matters is how many cuts put us out. Nothing beats A-7-8-9 at 13 cuts to put us out. Holding the triple with an 8 or a 9 gives me only 9 cuts to go out.

It's a pity that Dealer cut a J. S/he is now only 4 away. I'll lead the A. Hope for a 6 reply and then my 8 is good for a (15-2). If Dealer engages with a 7 for (22-3) my 9 is (31-6). We are both in the stinkhole at this point. Dealer will win with last card. *Unless* s/he leads a 7 or an 8. Then another miracle on 4th Street has occurred. But with Dealer only needing 4 points and me needing 9, s/he will probably not want to engage. Not expecting to win, but there is a small chance.
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks JQT. Hope you are well enough where ever you are, to view all the comments to this very fine puzzle. Best wishes my friend.
james500 says: Just to second Mike's comments above, best wishes John.
james500
3896 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Tuesday 1:04 PM
Dealer could be holding anything at this stage, but against the commonly held XXX5, AAA9 will peg the points we need. Against XXXX however, we come up one short, so will be reliant on a favourable cut (A,3333,4444,5555,6666,999).

A(1)-5(6)-9(15/2)-X(25)-A(26)-go-A(27/2+1) or.
A(1)-X(11)-A(12)-X(22)-9(31/2):
X(10)-A(11)-X(21/1).
Ras2829
5126 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 2:28 PM
Holding A-A-A-8 as dealer is one of cribbage's great pegging hands. As non-dealer holding a triple, the correct lead is from the triple. Often these cards will be split even playing the 8 as second card played and the final Ace gets a go. RSAS will hold the hand that gives the most cuts for 9 or more points with first count. Cutting that Jack really puts me in the hole now. A cut of 6, 7, 8, or 9 would have put me out. Had the cut been favorable would have led the 8 and escaped with the Ace. Now will lead the 7 and take any pegs offered. Likely not to win with the Jack giving dealer two points on the turn-up. Since I can't get out unless pegging four, just have to take my chances that dealer will score no more than three pegs. If you are not familiar with the tremendous pegging potential of A-A-A-8, 2-2-2-5, 3-3-3-2 when held by the dealer e-mail raswino29@outlook com
Ras2829 says: Sorry about the double entry. Site very slow today (or is it my computer?). Hadn't posted, left site, returned, still not posted. Keyed it again and lo you get the double-whammy.
Ras2829
5126 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 2:30 PM
Holding A-A-A-8 as dealer is one of cribbage's great pegging hands. As non-dealer holding a triple, the correct lead is from the triple. Often these cards will be split even playing the 8 as second card played and the final Ace gets a go. RSAS will hold the hand that gives the most cuts for 9 or more points with first count. Cutting that Jack really puts me in the hole now. A cut of 6, 7, 8, or 9 would have put me out. Had the cut been favorable would have led the 8 and escaped with the Ace. Now will lead the 7 and take any pegs offered. Likely not to win with the Jack giving dealer two points on the turn-up. Since I can't get out unless pegging four, just have to take my chances that dealer will score no more than three pegs. If you are not familiar with the tremendous pegging potential of A-A-A-8, 2-2-2-5, 3-3-3-2 when held by the dealer e-mail raswino29@outlook com
JQT
4137 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:03 PM
Sorry for my long absence. I am trying to 'jump back' into the fray one of these days.

With (A A A ?), we have ONE more precious point to begin with (SIX instead of FIVE points) which can be crucial in such a position.

If we can lead a Middle Card and then later PAIR two of our own Aces, we'll possibly be able to peg those three holes we need in order to WIN.

Also, I believe that the 'safety in numbers' aspect of holding the Three Aces gives our Dealer Opponent a bit less of a chance to peg out. This is especially true after the unfortunate Jack Cut.

I like holding the 7 Card, as it's the ONLY Middle Card, if PAIRED, that we can 'parry' with (15-2) using one of our Aces. Also, the 9 Card could run into a 'wall' after 9 (9) X (19) A (20) X (30) A (31-2) and now we only would have pegged TWO points instead of the potential (and possibly necessary) THREE points.
JQT says: It's difficult indeed to choose between the 7 Card and the 8 Card: the 7 Card has just 15 helpful Cuts (A, 5555, 6666, 777, 888), where as the 8 Card has 19 helpful Cuts (A, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888). Note of course that aside from possibly getting 'jammed up' during the pegging, that the 9 Card actually has 20 helpful Cuts (A 3333 4444 5555 6666 999). But do a few extra Cuts offset better prospects during the pegging? Good question! The longer I stare at this, the more I wonder whether that 'Middle of the Road' choice of Three Aces along with the 8 Card, with its inherent 'Magic Eleven,' might just be the best ticket toward Victory.
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: It's so nice to see you in the mix here today. Hope to see you here with great regularity.Have missed your commentary and insights.
Inushtuk1 says: Here here.
Rosemarie44 says: Glad to have you back!