August 17, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
69*-86  ?
46%
29%
14%
4%
1%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 164
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 3:10 AM
Believe that the two choices for today will be between tossing A-A and 8-8. Values for A-A is 5.51 points and 8-8, 5.50 points.
Combined values (exp. avg. hand plus crib) are: 10.01 points, and 9.80 points, respectively.
Tossing 8-8 leaves a hand with a 2 and 3 card eleven feature. Opponent is 17 points ahead of us.
Also this hand has more cuts for improvement (17 cuts) improving the hand to 6/8/12 points vs. 14 cuts.
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 3:16 AM
Would the opponent throw me something like 7-9 or 4-X ? I will go for the maximum potential here as thin as it is. Live and learn. Seven,eight lead play on, King,Queen play a nine. Looks like all out offense here to me. dec
BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 3:35 AM
Tossing the Aces. This has two ends of a double run to hit rather than one end (AA2_) plus a two card 11.
JQT
4135 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 4:07 AM
My first inclination is perhaps to Toss (8 9), but maybe we can improve upon this.

Retaining the (A A 2) or the (8 8 9) seems paramount here. If we hold the former (A A 2) together, we have only a "one ended" chance for a Double RUN; the latter choice of holding (8 8 9) however allows us a "double ended" chance to achieve the Double RUN.

We are WAY behind in this game, seventeen points behind, to be exact. And so let's call this what it is: We are most likely actually fighting to prevent a SKUNK here!

While I would never advocate for Toss (A 2) here, I have long been a proponent of sending Two Aces into our Crib via Toss (A A). In fact, on more than one occasion, I have identified this maneuver of throwing Two Aces into the Crib as 'one of the most under-estimated' of all discards!

Aces in the Crib can often produce what I have called, "Pin Action." This means that an Ace can 'energize' quite a few combinations of Pone Discards, along with the Cut Card. And Two Aces can often magnify this effect.

If we get any Crib combination that otherwise adds up to either thirteen or fourteen points, by the addition of Two Aces we shall get a much-needed (15-2). If an additional Third Ace shows up, we boost our Crib to at least Six Points, and possibly up to a DOZEN or even more!

Therefore, I'll go with Toss (A A) here, and hope it can possibly get us 'Back in the Game.' And it might at least avert a SKUNK.
Jazzselke says: Welcome back JQT!
Inushtuk1 says: Hi JQT, and welcome back. Strange how you love the "Pin Action" of Aces in the Crib; yet you also greatly enjoy outpegging your opponent. And the Aces have great pegging potential. I guess that shows how instructive a puzzle the master has "dished up" for us this morning.
JRCeagle78 says: Welcome back. We've all missed you and your wonderful insight. You have made many of us better players.
Jazzselke
2568 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 6:16 AM
Best we can do with a hand that can only start with 4 combined 4 points. JQT says it all.
Guest says: I tossed the 8's. Figured I may as well hope for a 3 cut, and have the pair in my crib. See you tomorrow! We'll be getting there mid afternoon, so let me know if you guys need helping setting up my favorite tournament. Beware that Weber might not get his head through the door because I kept telling him that last weekend lol S :)
Jazzselke says: I will be there early
Gougie00
5701 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 6:58 AM
This a typical hand that I always seem to get on tournament day. I'll toss AA and hope for a 7 cut. Since that didnt happen, I'll attempt defense.
Inushtuk1
1463 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 8:17 AM
More cuts for improvement to get over the skunk line. On any X-card play the 9. Use the three card eleven. Not afraid of giving up a three card run here. Since I gave away that "PinAction" I have to make sure I get the (31-4). This is the riskier way to keep it, and my chances of being skunked are now worse than those who tossed the Aces; after seeing that monarch. And I don't mean the butterfly.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 8:36 AM
I would rather count on a 7 cut than hope for a 7 discard from the pone. That leave A-A as the only logical alternative for discard. I'll play as offensively as possible and hope my crib can be productive.
Sgt Pegger
251 votes

Joined: July 2017

 
 
 
Thursday 10:40 AM
Hmmmm! I see that ras2829 suggested this hand. I assume that he will weigh-in on this one and tell us what the statistically best throw and play should be?
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Thursday 1:06 PM
I suspect that keeping the two pairs and discarding 2-9 for 4+? will have a higher combined average than will any 2+2 combo(?).
In these positions though I need a big hand to get down the board, so I'll hold the open-ended double run prospect of 8-8-9 and discard A-A in obvious preference to A-2.