September 13, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by timbuktututoo
95-100*  ?
46%
31%
12%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 167

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Rosemarie44
582 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Wednesday 3:10 AM
I like to keep the run and discard safer cards to dealer. Combined value is slightly higher at 3.33 points vs. 3.21 points discarding 8-10 to opponent.
Tossing 8-10 is worth 5.59 points and 7-10, 4.17 points.
Reply
james500
1531 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Wednesday 3:19 AM
Even if I keep the double run and get a favourable cut for 15/16 points, I won't be close enough to peg out during the next hand. Have to play defensively then, and hope that I can keep Dealer to 20 points or fewer in hand+box+hand. The flush is an interesting option, but 10-7 should be safer than 10-8 so I'll keep 5-8-9-10.

I'll play away from everything wherever possible.
Reply
dec
3739 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 3:52 AM
Position toss. minimize opponent's crib potential. Defense after the cut. dec
Reply
Gougie00
3267 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Wednesday 5:15 AM
Defense is paramount. No likeable discard, so I tossed 8-10, and held the flush. Lead the 9? I might be sunk regardless.
Reply
Samgash
202 votes

Joined: November 2016

   
Wednesday 5:24 AM
This was a tough choice but the sacrifice seemed worthwhile. Is 8-10 too good to drop in the crib at this stage? That's the question. That may be my error.
Reply
spin121
149 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Wednesday 5:29 AM
Average is 26 for 2 deals. Dealer needs 21 for 2 deals to take the win. My guess is we lose this game at over 90 percent rate but only choice is defense so 7 10 off-suit to crib.
Reply
CL343
72 votes

Joined: October 2015

   
Wednesday 5:30 AM
This isn't looking so great. Have to play defense, so the unsuited T7 goes to the kitty.

Don't like any of my lead options. Agree with Gougie and will play the 9, then try to dodge the raindrops.
Reply
Inushtuk1
334 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Wednesday 8:26 AM
timbuktututoo! What kind of ridiculous na... Oh wait...Never mind. ; - ). My strategy is offense. But I just couldn't bring myself to toss *two* key connectors over the board. The flush is an excellent compromise as I start with 6 instead of 5 points. What does it take to make the (8-10) work in Dealer's crib? A 7, 9, 10, and a 5. Oh look! We have "one of the each". The flush is well hidden and should peg fairly well on defense or offense. Okay, it's no A-4-5-6, or 2-3-4-6, but better than the other alternatives.

Now why couldn't I cut a 8, or J of diamonds? Leading my 7 to put some distance between the 5 and the 10. Total D now. Like James said, "I'll play away from everything possible". This means not taking the (15-2) on a 3 reply, and not taking the (24-3) on an 8 reply. Giving the Dealer an easy (30-3) would probably end this game on this deal.
Reply
Mumble T Pegger
138 votes

Joined: January 2015

   
Wednesday 12:00 PM
Interesting puzzle. I decided to keep the tens and the five for my six points and toss the 8-9 thinking that I've got 3/8 of the connectors in my hand for defense. I see that I am alone in my thoughts. Maybe I need a new hobby.
Reply
jmath714
480 votes

Joined: January 2012

   
Wednesday 12:11 PM
Seems like defense is the only option here.
Reply
HalscribCLX
2973 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Wednesday 1:18 PM
At 95-100* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense____Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W1 %___W2 %
5-7-9-10D__8.85+1.76+(-4.25)=6.36____0.0____14.6
5-8-9-10D__7.54+1.33+(-3.80)=5.07____0.0____13.1
5-8-10-10__8.00+1.50+(-4.48)=5.02____0.0____12.8
8-9-10-10_10.22+1.15+(-6.78)=4.59____0.0_____7.8
5-7-10-10__7.87+1.41+(-4.71)=4.57____0.0____11.6

Offense_______L1 %___L2 %
5-7-9-10D_____11.2___70.7
5-8-9-10D______9.5___67.8
5-8-10-10_____12.5___68.5
8-9-10-10_____19.8___82.7
5-7-10-10_____13.5___70.6

The flush is best by 1.29pts over 5-8-9-10 and has the best chance of Winning. It does have a relatively high chance of Losing but even so I'll select the 8-10C to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Defense and lead the 7:

Lead_______Dealer's Pegging Pts.
7________________(-2.43)
10_______________(-2.46)
9________________(-2.54)
5________________(-2.94)
Reply
Coeurdelion
3229 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 1:50 PM
I don't think at this stage of a game I want to give Dealer 5-7 so I'll look at the flush, 5-8-9-10 and 5-8-10-10:

5-7-9-10D: 6pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 5.10) = +1¼pts

5-8-9-10: 5pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.31) = +¾pts

5-8-10-10: 6pts - 5¼pts (Schell: 5.26) = +¾pts

Potential:

5-7-9-10D: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 999 + 14 xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 10/11pts with 555, 6666, 888, 1010 = 12 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.19pt

5-8-9-10: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 9/10/12pts with 555, 888, 999, 1010 = 11 cuts.

5-8-10-10: Improves with 2222, 555, 777, 888, 999 + 14xXs = 30 cuts = 65.2% up to 12pts with 555, 999, 1010 = 8 cuts.

Pegging:

I think the flush will peg best and be harder to read.

Position:

We're in a dire position and are unlikely to win. We need a solid hand to make sure we can get out as Dealer next hand if we get the chance.

Summary:

The flush has a better starting value even taking Schell's figure of 5.1pt it results in +0.9pt. The flush has the best potential if only by the extra 1pt for diamond cuts and I think it will peg best. So its the flush and the 8-10C throw for me.
Reply
Coeurdelion
3229 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 1:54 PM
Oops! 5-7-9-10D: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 888, 999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 10/11/12pts with 555, 6666, 888, 1010, JJJJ = 16 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.19pt
Reply
Ras2829
2763 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Thursday 12:39 AM
Tough situation that mirrors many such in actual games. Defense, Defense, Defense. Will lead the 7, try to avoid taking pegs which might allow opponent to score a run, pairs, etc. Would be ideal here to give up the guaranteed dealer peg, give up a 2-point crib or less as I know that RAS will be dealing from hole 103. What's the chance to holding dealer to ten combined points? It's nearly 7-1 against doing so. It's no easy struggle.
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