Monday 3:06 AM

Usually not keen on a 3-7 discard, but I like the amount of cuts for this hand. Lead that four again. dec

   

Monday 3:08 AM

Lots of choices Ras. Going with tossing 9-9 to dealer today holding A-3-4-7. Only cuts of 6 or 9 do not help hand but really help dealer's crib! More cuts for improvement. Hand has the highest expected average. Going offense in this position the nines must go.

   

Monday 3:18 AM

It appears that I've made the same choice as dec, which bodes well.
Would've been tempted by A-3-4-7 (9-9) if dealing though.

AAA,2222,444,5555,6666,99 and 16*X = 36 helpful cuts.

36 cuts = 6 "blocks" of 6 cards =
36 cuts = 6*13% =
36 cuts = 78% of the 46 possible cuts.

   

Monday 4:32 AM

Just felt like the best choice.

   

Monday 5:14 AM

Starting out with a fizzle again. I wanted to keep that 34 together, and 99 seemed to be the best 2 other cards to hold. A7 is usually a pretty good stifle toss to the other guy's crib.

Ugh... lead a 9. Perhaps I can trap a 5 or a 2 with the 34.

   

Monday 5:28 AM

I normally hold it this way. I'll lead the four.

   

Monday 7:22 AM

Playing for the max 10 points out of this mess means tossing A-4, A-3, or 3-4, which I don't like. Prefer tossing 4-7 than A-7, for pretty much the same risk/reward scenario. Will lead the 3.

   

Monday 7:34 AM

Agree with most commentators, best of a bad situation.

   

Monday 8:42 AM

What a horrible time to be dealt this mitt! Going with the hand with the highest average hand, and most cuts for improvement. These four card (15-2) hands, if you hit one of the four, your hand will always at least triple in value, and in the case of the 7 cut it quadruples.

We have a three card eleven in A-3-7, and I wouldn't argue with anyone who wanted to lead the 7. They might even get a (15-4) if lucky, or get the (31-2). But I'll lead the more sure 4 to the Ace, to score the (15-2). If paired my 7 covers the play.

BTW: (9-9) to *our crib* has the fourth worst average of the thirteen pairs. Wish I could say the same over the board. It's the exact opposite actually. The (9-9) to our opponent is the 4th *highest* in opponent's crib average from all the pairs. It averages 6.519. I couldn't find any data about what the average number of 2 point cribs it yiellds. Ras will let us know. I hope it's a high number for our sake, but I have a feeling that will not be the case. We'll see. All my fingers and toes are crossed.

   

Monday 12:17 PM

At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 %
A-3-4-7___5.13+2.26+(-6.12)=1.27____21.6____18.3
3-4-9-9___4.09+1.52+(-4.50)=1.11____17.8____18.4
A-4-9-9___4.43+1.43+(-4.79)=1.07____18.3____18.8
A-3-9-9___4.00+1.39+(-4.44)=0.95____17.5____18.4
4-7-9-9___3.96+1.46+(-4.87)=0.55____18.6____18.1

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
A-3-4-7______42.3____56.6
3-4-9-9______36.8____54.1
A-4-9-9______37.1____54.1
A-3-9-9______36.4____54.0
4-7-9-9______38.0____54.8

A-3-4-7 is best for expected averages by 0.16pt and is also best for Win %s. Although its is worst for Loss %s by an appreciable margin because of the risk of the 9-9 discard
as its early in the game I'll put most weight on the expected averages and select 9-9 to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead the 4 and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Pts.
4___________________2.31
7___________________1.96
A___________________1.69
3___________________1.59

   

Monday 3:30 PM

Several ways to keep 2pts but the better ones leave close cards or A-4. A-3-4-7 has both so does it make up for the 9-9 discard?

A-4-9-9: 2pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.01) = -3pts

3-4-9-9: 2pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.89) = -2¾pts

A-3-4-7: 2pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.39) = -4¼pts

Potential:

A-4-9-9: AAA, 2222, 444, 5555, 6666, 99 + 16xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 6/8pts with AAA, 2222, 5555, 6666, 99 = 17 cuts.

3-4-9-9: 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 8888, 99 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 6/8/9pts 2222, 333, 6666, 99 = 13 cuts.

A-3-4-7: AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 777, 8888 + 16xXs = 40 cuts = 40/46 = 87.0% up to 6/7/8pts with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 8888 = 21 cuts.

Pegging:

Of these three hands I think A-3-4-7 will peg best.

Position:

As Pone we'll be playing Offense to try to improve our position.

Summary:

A-3-4-7 starts with 1¼pts less than A-4-9-9 but with more cuts for improvement and more for 6-8pts together with the better pegging I think it will make this up. So I'll take the risk and throw 9-9.

   

Tuesday 12:10 AM

Submitted this puzzle as it represents a most unusual situation. Are you playing offense when holding two points and tossing two? The superior pegging (one of the better pegging hands for non-dealer) and greater hand score more than compensate for the 6+ crib of the 9-9 discard. Based on my empirical data the 9-9 to opponent crib averages 6.519 (206) scores 2 points 30.732%, weighs in at 42.057% in the 3-7 range, scores 8-11 21.367%, tallies 12 or more 5.855%. Does that all equal 100%? Will lead the four spot as it produces the greater chance to peg with this arrangement of cards.