Tuesday 3:11 AM

Taking a chance holding this hand as every cut increases its value. Lucky cut for dealer but also for me. Will await analysis from Ras, Hal, and Coeurdelion.

   

Tuesday 3:13 AM

I went for a face card cut. More about the defensive eleven in the pegging hand although possible I could peg four with this keep. dec

   

Tuesday 4:19 AM

with dealer at 109, I need to keep the hand that gives me a shot at 8 points-with an X or 10 points-with a 2. Lead the 4. try to peg 2 at least with my AA.

   

Tuesday 4:44 AM

Ras recently (Sunday?) mentioned the benefits of keeping "triple nickles", advice I should've perhaps taken today with A-A-3-4.

Anyhow, cuts of a 2,3,4,5,6,7,8 or 9 (28/46) increase the value of my hand to 7+. Of those, the fours and eights give all 10, and the fives score 9.

28 cards = 30 cards minus 2 cards =
28 cards = 5 lots of six cards, minus 2 singles =
28 cards = (5*13%) - (2*2%) =
28 cards = 65% - 4% =
28 cards = 61% chance of being close/out.

   

Tuesday 5:01 AM

I held it this way, hoping for the 7 or 8 cut. The cut sinks me.

   

Tuesday 5:20 AM

Seems at first glance to have more cuts for 7-10 points. Looks like James has some data above me to read.

   

Tuesday 5:40 AM

Hoping for a face card cut and a parlay of the Aces on the back end. Step 1 complete!

   

Tuesday 6:18 AM

This keep has 4 cuts that put us out. The 3-4-7-8 has 6 cuts that do the same. The latter also has 4 cuts that put us at 120. But there are only 6 cuts putting us at 119. Our way there are 16 X-cards that will do that for us.

I don't think I have enough spots on the cards to bump the count up high enough to parlay those Aces at the back end. So I'll be leading my Ah. A bit of a shame. But with 15 X- cards out there Dealer may be holding 4 of them. That would make the count (11). Step 2 complete! But boy will I have egg on my face should I fall short, and Dealer is short also with his/her pegs, and hand, and then gets to show his/her crib.

   

Tuesday 7:05 AM

..

   

Tuesday 9:51 AM

Taking the four points and building blocks for a better hand.f

   

Tuesday 11:02 AM

Have run this hand as a query on Cribbage Prof from this position and others. The Prof shows to hold A-3-4-7. Only the 4 and 7 cut provide eight points or more although hand does peg well. RAS is looking for the hand that has the greatest chance to score 8 or more points. That's the A-A-3-4 as 2222, 777, 10101010, JJJJ, QQQQ, and KKKK a total of 23 cards provide 8 or more points. Holding 3-4-7-8 eight or more are scored with the cut of 333, 444, 5555. 777, 888, or 9999 (20 cards. Inushtuk1 makes a good point about the low count of our cards as would have a much better chance of parlaying the Aces back to back if one of our cards was a six spot or more in value. Might it be that the two cards of sequence have a greater chance to pickup the two pegs than does AA anyway? The 3-4 could pick up a card to match (3-4) or score a run if finding a 2-2 or 5-5 or perhaps even a single loose deuce or five. Peg boldly as dealer needs 12 pegs to win on this hand.

   

Tuesday 2:06 PM

The objective is clear - to score 10pts with hand and pegging.

The two hands that seem to jump out are 3-4-7-8 and A-A-3-4. Both hands should peg well and are capable of scoring 2pts or more. Let's see how many cuts will score 8pts or more in the hand:

3-4-7-8: 333, 444, 777, 888 = 12 cuts plus there are 16 cuts for 7pts 2222, 5555, 6666, 9999.

A-A-3-4: 2222 + 16xXs = 20 cuts.

As said both hands will peg quite well but with 4 low cards I think A-A-3-4 will be better. So I'll throw the 7-8.

   

Tuesday 2:25 PM

At 111-109* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Win %s are:

Offense________Win %
A-A-3-4________48.1
3-4-7-8________42.3
A-A-7-8________30.0
A-3-4-7________26.4
A-3-4-8________25.2
A-A-4-7________24.6
A-A-3-8________23.0

A-A-3-4 is best for Win %s by a considerable margin so I'll select 7-8 to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead the 4 and play Offense:

Lead_________Win %
4____________70.8
A____________63.3
3____________59.9