October 8, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Inushtuk1
95-81*  ?
59%
37%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 137

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Rosemarie44
613 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Sunday 3:06 AM
Tossing 8-J to dealer leaves my hand with the possibility of 23 cuts that will improve this hand to 15 points and a safer toss to opponent in this position. Values for 8-J is 4.58 points and 8-9, 5.89 points.
Tossing 8-9 leaves a hand with 30 cuts (65%) keeping the value at 8 points and the possibility of 16 cuts increasing its value to 17 points.
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dec
3774 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Sunday 3:32 AM
Keeping the flush lose only one point at start but a better crib discard leading to a possible lesser one. Nine lead. defense. dec
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BigFoot Bob
537 votes

Joined: April 2016

   
Sunday 3:54 AM
Sacrifice one point for the flush and dumping the J-8 to the crib and hopefully killing it. After this round I have three hands to pones one.
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Jazzselke
842 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Sunday 4:46 AM
No reason to throw 89 when we will be dealing past Hole 100.
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james500
1560 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Sunday 4:49 AM
If we can slow Dealer down we should reach 121 before they do, and there's far less synergy between J-8 than there is between 8-9.

Only six scoring replies to my Jack lead, and it also breaks up my hand.
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spin121
181 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Sunday 5:02 AM
8 j looks a lot better than 8 9. I"ll shoot anything that moves. (All pegs offered) 9 lead
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glmccuskey
2433 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Sunday 5:54 AM
I love our 4th street position here. No need to help the dealer get back in this game. I’ll lead the jack to get some distance between my cards.
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Andy (muesli64)
1276 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Sunday 6:43 AM
Yes 8-J. Why help the opposition?
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Gougie00
3299 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Sunday 6:46 AM
Unless you feel it in your bones that a 5 or face will be cut, keep the flush. Lead the Jack and play off.
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Aicirt
14 votes

Joined: October 2017

   
Sunday 6:52 AM
The two plays have almost identical expected average Hand minus Crib scores, but the 89 crib will score 8 or more points almost twice as often as the J8 crib, so given the board position I'm keeping the flush.
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JQT
2070 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Sunday 7:38 AM
The two hands (Double RUN vs. FLUSH) are nearly equal in potential on our side of the board, but the FLUSH clearly *solves a problem* 'over the board' with the safer Toss (8 J) discard.

Also, we should peg a bit more defensively with the FLUSH. Flushes often SOLVE PROBLEMS when we are Pone in Cribbage. We Should Use Them!
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Coeurdelion
3255 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Sunday 10:43 AM
Its a straight choice between the partially running flush and the double-run:

9-JC-Q-K: 7pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.59) = +2½pts

J-J-Q-K: 8pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.83) = +2¼pts

Potential:

9-JC-Q-K: Improves with 5555, 6666, 999 + 12xXs = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 12/13pts with 5555, JJJ, QQQ, KKK = 13 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for an extra 2pt for the flush and his nob = 0.39pt

J-J-Q-K: Improves with 5555 + 12xXs = 16 cuts = 16/46 = 34.8% up to 15/16pts with all cuts. Plus 9 clubs and 11 diamonds for an extra 1pt for his nob = 20/46 = 0.44pt

Pegging:

Both hands will peg well playing Defense althou the flush will have the advantage of being harder to read.

Position:

We're already nearly at 4th street par-hole and Dealer is well short. There's no chance of a skunk so I'll play Defense.

Summary:

9-J-Q-K has more cuts for improvement but to a lower maximum. They both have aboy 0.4pt for nobs or flush improvement so I think it will be very close. The flush starts with +¼ more and is more in line with my Defense strategy so I'll throw the 8-JD.
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HalscribCLX
3000 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Sunday 11:01 AM
At 95-81* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense__Hand___Pegs____Crib___Total___W1 %___W2 %
9-JC-Q-K__9.26+(-3.15)+(-4.49)=1.62____0.0____57.1
J-J-Q-K__10.67+(-3.24)+(-5.83)=1.60____0.0____54.6

Defense______L1 %____L2 %
9-JC-Q-K_____0.0_____1.7
J-J-Q-K______0.1_____4.0

Thre is virtually no difference in expected averages only 0.02pt in favor of the flush. For Win %s and Loss %s the advantage in Win %s to J-J-Q-K is approximately the same as the disadvantage in Loss %s because of the riskier 8-9 discard. As I'm recommending a Defense strategy I'll select the safer 8-JD to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead the K and play Defense:

Lead_______Dealer's Pegging Pts.
K__________________(-2.65)
Q__________________(-2.67)
J__________________(-2.70)
9__________________(-3.15)
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cribbagepogo
2383 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Sunday 7:26 PM
Apparently the majority are not regulars on this site.
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Ras2829
2785 votes

Joined: November 2008

Sunday 10:09 PM
Back from my annual trout fishing excursion. Like where I am on the board and will play def. def. def. For me that means leading the Jack and playing off. Look for those flushes that allow holding equal or near equal points in hand to gain a safer discard to opponent crib. The flush option is often available. Given that, why flirt with the 8-9 discard?
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Ras2829
2785 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Sunday 10:12 PM
Get the picture?
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