October 8, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Inushtuk1
95-81*  ?
59%
37%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 137
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 3:06 AM
Tossing 8-J to dealer leaves my hand with the possibility of 23 cuts that will improve this hand to 15 points and a safer toss to opponent in this position. Values for 8-J is 4.58 points and 8-9, 5.89 points.
Tossing 8-9 leaves a hand with 30 cuts (65%) keeping the value at 8 points and the possibility of 16 cuts increasing its value to 17 points.
james500 says: Hi hope your weekend is a good one. Sorry to be pedantic, but with regards to the amount of helpful/unhelpful cuts if keeping the double run, I think you've forgotten to factor in the extra point should the cut match one of the Jacks. There are your 16 cuts (4*5, 4*10, 2*J, 3*Q and 3*K) plus the A,2,3,4,6,7,8 of clubs and the A,2,3,4,6,7,8,9 of diamonds (a further 15 cuts), that help J-J-Q-K today. This leaves only 15 cuts that fail to increase the hand above 8. All that being said, in this position I think that we should be much more concerned with our opponent's points rather than our own, discarding and playing with the aim of preventing Dealer moving along the board, and I agree with you that J-8 seems a decent enough way to go.
Rosemarie44 says: Hi James 500: yes to your first statement.I often don't factor that in in my analysis. For those like yourself, I will refrain from posting statistics. I suggest that you put all your figures on your reply. All of us have our method of deciding what to hold and what to toss each day and getting the correct result is what counts!
Guest says: Tsk tsk
Guest says: I know who you are.
Guest says: I'm the " shadow"
dec
6356 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:32 AM
Keeping the flush lose only one point at start but a better crib discard leading to a possible lesser one. Nine lead. defense. dec
BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 3:54 AM
Sacrifice one point for the flush and dumping the J-8 to the crib and hopefully killing it. After this round I have three hands to pones one.
Jazzselke
2585 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Sunday 4:46 AM
No reason to throw 89 when we will be dealing past Hole 100.
Hillchem says: Yup. Slow and steady should be more than enough for us. Dealer would need two monster hands to salvage this one. Let's not contribute to one in the crib.
james500
3921 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Sunday 4:49 AM
If we can slow Dealer down we should reach 121 before they do, and there's far less synergy between J-8 than there is between 8-9.

Only six scoring replies to my Jack lead, and it also breaks up my hand.
spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 5:02 AM
8 j looks a lot better than 8 9. I"ll shoot anything that moves. (All pegs offered) 9 lead
glmccuskey
4099 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Sunday 5:54 AM
I love our 4th street position here. No need to help the dealer get back in this game. I’ll lead the jack to get some distance between my cards.
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Sunday 6:43 AM
Yes 8-J. Why help the opposition?
Gougie00
5728 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 6:46 AM
Unless you feel it in your bones that a 5 or face will be cut, keep the flush. Lead the Jack and play off.
Aicirt
35 votes

Joined: October 2017
 
 
 
Sunday 6:52 AM
The two plays have almost identical expected average Hand minus Crib scores, but the 89 crib will score 8 or more points almost twice as often as the J8 crib, so given the board position I'm keeping the flush.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 7:38 AM
The two hands (Double RUN vs. FLUSH) are nearly equal in potential on our side of the board, but the FLUSH clearly *solves a problem* 'over the board' with the safer Toss (8 J) discard.

Also, we should peg a bit more defensively with the FLUSH. Flushes often SOLVE PROBLEMS when we are Pone in Cribbage. We Should Use Them!
JQT says: I agree with Leading the Jack.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi JQT. I am rather flummoxed. I cannot find my notes about this submission, and it seems rather obvious now. However there are two important facts to note. Number 1 is that we are plus 9 and Dealer is -15, which using Schell's Simplified System, would call for an offensive stance. But using Ras's CPZ'S, we see we will be dealing beyond our 4th Street CPZ, and as such should play defense to protect our lead. The second note of minor interest is that all the regular 'suspects' are choosing the defensive discard option, but the majority vote is for the double run. Some part of me actually wants to take their side on this one for some strange reason.
Coeurdelion
5593 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Sunday 10:43 AM
Its a straight choice between the partially running flush and the double-run:

9-JC-Q-K: 7pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.59) = +2½pts

J-J-Q-K: 8pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.83) = +2¼pts

Potential:

9-JC-Q-K: Improves with 5555, 6666, 999 + 12xXs = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 12/13pts with 5555, JJJ, QQQ, KKK = 13 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for an extra 2pt for the flush and his nob = 0.39pt

J-J-Q-K: Improves with 5555 + 12xXs = 16 cuts = 16/46 = 34.8% up to 15/16pts with all cuts. Plus 9 clubs and 11 diamonds for an extra 1pt for his nob = 20/46 = 0.44pt

Pegging:

Both hands will peg well playing Defense althou the flush will have the advantage of being harder to read.

Position:

We're already nearly at 4th street par-hole and Dealer is well short. There's no chance of a skunk so I'll play Defense.

Summary:

9-J-Q-K has more cuts for improvement but to a lower maximum. They both have aboy 0.4pt for nobs or flush improvement so I think it will be very close. The flush starts with +¼ more and is more in line with my Defense strategy so I'll throw the 8-JD.
HalscribCLX
5316 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 11:01 AM
At 95-81* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense__Hand___Pegs____Crib___Total___W1 %___W2 %
9-JC-Q-K__9.26+(-3.15)+(-4.49)=1.62____0.0____57.1
J-J-Q-K__10.67+(-3.24)+(-5.83)=1.60____0.0____54.6

Defense______L1 %____L2 %
9-JC-Q-K_____0.0_____1.7
J-J-Q-K______0.1_____4.0

Thre is virtually no difference in expected averages only 0.02pt in favor of the flush. For Win %s and Loss %s the advantage in Win %s to J-J-Q-K is approximately the same as the disadvantage in Loss %s because of the riskier 8-9 discard. As I'm recommending a Defense strategy I'll select the safer 8-JD to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead the K and play Defense:

Lead_______Dealer's Pegging Pts.
K__________________(-2.65)
Q__________________(-2.67)
J__________________(-2.70)
9__________________(-3.15)
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Hal. Why not lead the J to break up the hand on defense?
cribbagepogo
3251 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Sunday 7:26 PM
Apparently the majority are not regulars on this site.
Ras2829
5152 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 10:09 PM
Back from my annual trout fishing excursion. Like where I am on the board and will play def. def. def. For me that means leading the Jack and playing off. Look for those flushes that allow holding equal or near equal points in hand to gain a safer discard to opponent crib. The flush option is often available. Given that, why flirt with the 8-9 discard?
Ras2829
5152 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 10:12 PM
Get the picture?