October 9, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
83*-78  ?
68%
11%
7%
6%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 168
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Monday 3:05 AM
10-7 I considered seeing opponent might need to go for a big hand here but elected to for the three to eight range to improve hand. Also touching cards in the crib and might be able to peg a few with this keep. dec
Guest says: This looks like one of our wed night crummy hands
Guest says: Welcome home Rog....
Inushtuk1 says: You played cribbage on your wedding night?! ; - )
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Monday 3:22 AM
Like t-J rather than 2-7 to my crib. This hand adds up to an "11".
glmccuskey
4075 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Monday 3:24 AM
No need to panic. We have three hands plus the pegging to get into 4th street position {95-99). With six points I’ll lead the two and peg it defensively.
Jazzselke
2569 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Monday 3:42 AM
4-card 11 and adjoining cards to the crib about all we can do, hope opponent does not have a big hand to get into dealing position.
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Monday 3:59 AM
I pick up this hand all the time. So I know throwing 10 J is my best bet!!
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Monday 5:43 AM
Hedged with 7-10 and 10-J. Neither is appealing, but the touchies might catch a 9 or Q for a 3 run. Try to hold AA for a parlay at the end.
spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Monday 7:00 AM
keeping the A A 2 together with the 7. Nice defensive magic 11. Defense
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Monday 7:45 AM
Not just a "Magic Eleven" but (A A 2 7) forms one of the most powerful pegging combinations in Cribbage!

Also, all Cuts below a 9 Card (about 60% of the remaining deck) help this arrangement. What's not to like?!
Inushtuk1
1464 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Monday 9:09 AM
There's often a catch to a Ras puzzle. A-A-10-J has a higher average hand by 0.35 points. The (10-J) will more than make up for it no doubt. But keeping the cards this way gives me a shot at 11 points with the 4h cut. Besides, I like where I am on the board. I'm playing defense. And my two card Magic Eleven, while not as sexy as the four card Eleven, pegs better defensively. Who knows? With a little luck I can dump my As on the first X- card lead, and then I have a roughly 50% chance of pairing the next X-card, closing the count at (31-4), and I was just playing defense. And then I might turn around and do the same thing all over again on the second play series, without even breaking a sweat. Can we do that with that four card Eleven?
Inushtuk1 says: But if you're playing offense you should keep the A-A-2-7. But the max is only 8 points that way.
Hillchem says: First, I would worry that A-A-10-J is too defensive from here. I would hate to not hit fourth street on this deal and put our position at risk if we get another clunker. Second, and more importantly, happy Thanksgiving to you, Mike, and any other Canadians on the site!
Coeurdelion says: Good decision, Mike. Along with the rest of the 6%. I am surprised though!
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Rob, and thanks for the Thanksgiving wishes. And to you and yours as well. As far as keep being too defensive, A-A-10-J scores better in the hand; and I have to assume I will score at least 3 pegs plus 2 in my hand. That alone puts me at 88. My target is only 85/86. If I get dealt another clunker, so be it. I'm just playing the averages for now. And thank you Richard.
Hillchem says: Thanks, and wow, great call on the puzzle today!
Coeurdelion
5573 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Monday 10:29 AM
for me, with a poor hand, its close cards to the box. We obviously don't want to split the Aces so its 10-J. A-A-2-7 has the advantage of a 4-card magic eleven as well.
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Monday 12:51 PM
Just settling down to watch Wales vs Irelandm Hopefully it'll be better than Lithuania vs England was yesterday, although that won't be too difficult!

10-J from me.
HalscribCLX
5296 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Monday 1:20 PM
At 83*-78 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W3 %____W4 %
A-A-10-J__4.61+(-2.04)+3.98=6.55____40.2____70.0
A-A-2-7___4.26+(-2.30)+4.51=6.47____41.5____64.6

Defense______L3 %____L4 %
A-A-10-J_____17.5____15.9
A-A-2-7______25.7____20.2

A-A-10-J is 0.08pt better for expected averages and is better for Win %s and very much better for Loss %s both of which take account of the board position. So I'll select 2-7 to discard.

After the A cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Monday 1:46 PM
Submitted this puzzle as it includes that 4-card eleven, great for offensive pegging for dealer. With opponent at hole 78, makes sense to me to play def., def., def. As Inushtuk1 points out above the A-A-10-J is the better hand for that. The cut of the Ace gives me 7 points and a guaranteed peg. Don't know of anything in crib. If zero point crib and only that one dealer peg, will be at hole 91. So think game looks pretty solid in my corner. Non-dealer would need to pull out more than 16 points on this hand to reach 4th street CPZ 95-99 for upcoming deal. The positon is such that can see choosing offense might be a viable option. In that case, the choice of A-A-2-7 is right on.
Ras2829 says: Starting cribbage classes tomorrow 10/10 and very Tuesday for the next 8-9 weeks. The classes start at 6:30 PM promptly at the Chehalis Moose Lodge at 1409 Grand Avenue, Centralia, WA 98531. If you're in the SW Washington area or driving the I-5 corridor, make a stop. There is no charge for the class and carry-out material will be available. You'll have to put up with me, discussion, question/answer periods for the first hour. Three games of cribbage will close out the evenings. The material will challenge players of all levels of ability.
Inushtuk1 says: Cool. Wish I lived within driving distance. Let us know if they will be available on YouTube or whatever.
Coeurdelion says: If I could manage the 4,800m every Tuesday I'd be there! 8-)
Inushtuk1 says: But of course you would stop off at the Montreal International Airport to pick me up right?
Coeurdelion says: Definitely!!