October 9, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
83*-78  ?
68%
11%
7%
6%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 168

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dec
3837 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Monday 3:05 AM
10-7 I considered seeing opponent might need to go for a big hand here but elected to for the three to eight range to improve hand. Also touching cards in the crib and might be able to peg a few with this keep. dec
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Rosemarie44
666 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Monday 3:22 AM
Like t-J rather than 2-7 to my crib. This hand adds up to an "11".
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glmccuskey
2483 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Monday 3:24 AM
No need to panic. We have three hands plus the pegging to get into 4th street position {95-99). With six points Iíll lead the two and peg it defensively.
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Jazzselke
876 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Monday 3:42 AM
4-card 11 and adjoining cards to the crib about all we can do, hope opponent does not have a big hand to get into dealing position.
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Andy (muesli64)
1304 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Monday 3:59 AM
I pick up this hand all the time. So I know throwing 10 J is my best bet!!
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Gougie00
3351 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Monday 5:43 AM
Hedged with 7-10 and 10-J. Neither is appealing, but the touchies might catch a 9 or Q for a 3 run. Try to hold AA for a parlay at the end.
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spin121
238 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Monday 7:00 AM
keeping the A A 2 together with the 7. Nice defensive magic 11. Defense
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JQT
2114 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Monday 7:45 AM
Not just a "Magic Eleven" but (A A 2 7) forms one of the most powerful pegging combinations in Cribbage!

Also, all Cuts below a 9 Card (about 60% of the remaining deck) help this arrangement. What's not to like?!
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Inushtuk1
407 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Monday 9:09 AM
There's often a catch to a Ras puzzle. A-A-10-J has a higher average hand by 0.35 points. The (10-J) will more than make up for it no doubt. But keeping the cards this way gives me a shot at 11 points with the 4h cut. Besides, I like where I am on the board. I'm playing defense. And my two card Magic Eleven, while not as sexy as the four card Eleven, pegs better defensively. Who knows? With a little luck I can dump my As on the first X- card lead, and then I have a roughly 50% chance of pairing the next X-card, closing the count at (31-4), and I was just playing defense. And then I might turn around and do the same thing all over again on the second play series, without even breaking a sweat. Can we do that with that four card Eleven?
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Coeurdelion
3304 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 10:29 AM
for me, with a poor hand, its close cards to the box. We obviously don't want to split the Aces so its 10-J. A-A-2-7 has the advantage of a 4-card magic eleven as well.
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james500
1609 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Monday 12:51 PM
Just settling down to watch Wales vs Irelandm Hopefully it'll be better than Lithuania vs England was yesterday, although that won't be too difficult!

10-J from me.
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HalscribCLX
3055 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Monday 1:20 PM
At 83*-78 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W3 %____W4 %
A-A-10-J__4.61+(-2.04)+3.98=6.55____40.2____70.0
A-A-2-7___4.26+(-2.30)+4.51=6.47____41.5____64.6

Defense______L3 %____L4 %
A-A-10-J_____17.5____15.9
A-A-2-7______25.7____20.2

A-A-10-J is 0.08pt better for expected averages and is better for Win %s and very much better for Loss %s both of which take account of the board position. So I'll select 2-7 to discard.

After the A cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
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Ras2829
2842 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Monday 1:46 PM
Submitted this puzzle as it includes that 4-card eleven, great for offensive pegging for dealer. With opponent at hole 78, makes sense to me to play def., def., def. As Inushtuk1 points out above the A-A-10-J is the better hand for that. The cut of the Ace gives me 7 points and a guaranteed peg. Don't know of anything in crib. If zero point crib and only that one dealer peg, will be at hole 91. So think game looks pretty solid in my corner. Non-dealer would need to pull out more than 16 points on this hand to reach 4th street CPZ 95-99 for upcoming deal. The positon is such that can see choosing offense might be a viable option. In that case, the choice of A-A-2-7 is right on.
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