Monday 3:13 AM

Not a hand I would usually keep on other places on the board but here it is the best offensive keep. My first card play preference would be to play off on any A-2-3-4 lead. dec

   

Monday 3:44 AM

Toss the 8-10 gapper and see what happens. May catch a lower starter for a double run or a high starter for Nickles and Dimes. Every cut help this hand.

   

Monday 3:59 AM

Like the higher valued toss of 8-T and the small run.

   

Monday 4:24 AM

Playing defensively as 1st dealer, I'd like an escape card. On the basis that I haven't seen a 6 yet, but only three of the fours are still unaccounted for, I'd choose A-8 rather than A-10.

   

Monday 5:08 AM

I like middle card with an ace to my crib. Agree with James about defense with this hold. If my opponent leads a 2 or 3 I’m forced to pair it.

   

Monday 7:56 AM

A few different ways to get a 12 hand. Keeping the 234 means a 6,8,9 also helps and a 7 will help the crib.

Okay, I will assume 7 in the hand and 0 in the crib. Lets peg.

   

Monday 8:03 AM

I'll play defense and toss 2-3. Build up the crib and hope the pone tosses an X card

   

Monday 8:36 AM

Just had this hand over on ecrib and tossed 8 10. I can't be very far of if I always keep a 4 card run.

   

Monday 9:14 AM

Normally I would throw A8 for a better crib possibility than A10. In this case as first dealer I like 2348 for better pegging. I don't normally like A234 because the maximum is 10, not 12.Interesting, Colvert's book advocates A10.

   

Monday 1:07 PM

Based on my scant empirical data, this hand has the better combined value whether choosing defense or offense as a strategy. After turning the Jack for two points, knowing of a guaranteed peg, and 8 points in the hand will play off the lead and would not pair a small card. If an Ace was led, would play the trey; a deuce lead, play the four spot; on a trey led, would play the Ace; and on a 4 lead would play the deuce. If a ten pointer led, make the count 14, not 11 as so often is done. On a 5 lead, would play the deuce(remember that 8 in the crib). On a 7, 8, or 9 would play the four spot, keeping A-2-3 intact. More later!

   

Monday 2:34 PM

At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense____Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W9 %____W10 %
A-2-3-4____8.09+(-2.20)+3.88=9.77____37.7____49.7
2-3-4-10___7.96+(-2.20)+3.80=9.56____35.8____48.3
A-2-3-10___7.83+(-1.98)+3.70=9.55____35.9____48.4
2-3-4-8____8.26+(-2.15)+3.16=9.27____35.0____47.2
A-4-8-10___4.48+(-1.83)+6.54=9.19____33.5____47.0

Defense_______L9 %____L10 %
A-2-3-4_______27.9____25.2
2-3-4-10______27.7____26.3
A-2-3-10______27.3____26.0
2-3-4-8_______28.2____27.3
A-4-8-10______26.4____26.9

A-2-3-4 is best for expected averages by 0.21pt over 2-3-4-10 and is also slightly best for Win %s and Loss %s so I'll select 8-10 to discard.

After the J cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

   

Monday 3:00 PM

Always 8-10.

   

Monday 5:17 PM

Ever since I read Colvert's book, I have been avoiding this 4 card run, and keeping A-2-3-10, 2-3-4-10, or 2-3-4-8. It took a long time to figure out that A-2-3-4(8-10) has the second best average hand, and highest crib average; for the highest expected average. And then there's that safety in numbers thing. Note how Halscrib gives 2-3-4-10 the same defensive pegging average as A-2-3-4 *despite* the former's escape card. And the other options aren't much better.

Please see Ras's response to my question in his post. If we dump our lone Ace on the X pointer, as I tend to do, we will get the run and the Go if Dealer is X-X-X-X. But if Dealer is 5-X-X-X the 5 will surely be dumped and we will lose that pegging play. We need to look for such opportunities *even* on defense.