Tuesday 3:09 AM

I am off early this morning. Decided to keep 6-9 in my crib and hold 2-T-J-Q today. Awaiting your rationale Ras.

   

Tuesday 3:16 AM

Yes that 6-9 is sually good for a six point crib a lot of times. Once again its about the starter card. I am pretty good with peging with face ards in my hand. Play off with the two if possible. dec

   

Tuesday 3:26 AM

I went with the five points in my hand and maybe cut a double run.

   

Tuesday 4:24 AM

I'd choose Q-2 from these.

   

Tuesday 5:29 AM

2 ways to go, either toss 2-Q or 69. Looks like I missed today. Since I missed the cut, I gotta peg.

   

Tuesday 5:46 AM

still early but not making up any ground yet. Offense.

   

Tuesday 5:50 AM

I will favor 69 here. As Dan #1 points out very often 6 points.

   

Tuesday 5:53 AM

That’s the way I’ve thrown this for years. I’ll read on to see if I can learn from this panel of experts.

   

Tuesday 8:11 AM

I haven't commented on here in years, but I'm so far afield today that hopefully I can learn something.

We are dealing at -9 with the pone at +8, so should tend to favor defense. That would indicate keeping 2-9 together for a pegging 11, but that is clunky with the rest of the hand. The highest base keep is 6-9-T-J at only 5 to start.

Therefore since there's no really amazing option here, favored pitching J-Q to crib hoping to pick up a 10 or K. Retains the pegging 11 with touching cards in both hand and crib. Hoping to learn from the experts why this was a bad choice.

   

Tuesday 9:14 AM

Similar to yesterday's puzzle. All three of the popular options have expected averages that are very close. I choose offense, as I was obviously game's starting non-dealer. The 9-10-J-Q will peg better for me on offense. If I *was* to choose defense I would keep 6-9-10-J(2-Q).

   

Tuesday 11:04 AM

While Toss (6 9) is clearly worth more than Toss (2 6) in our Crib, this puzzle demands that we ask "How Much More?"

Due to the W I D E nature of Toss (6 9), it lacks value on BOTH sides of the board. In fact, if we can get the Deuce into our Crib today via Toss (2 6), it will only average about one point less than Toss (6 9) at most.

And the extra point we get with Keep (9 T J Q) will then more than 'make up' for the loss of those two points we lack from Toss (6 9).

Now ... add to this calculation the EXTRA POTENTIAL we have because we're holding a longer RUN, and we see that we only stand to GAIN by throwing Toss (2 6) today.

   

Tuesday 11:11 AM

It looks like its either 5pts, 3+2pts or perhaps 4pts:

6-9-10-J: 5pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.58) = 8½pts

2-10-J-Q: 3pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 8¼pts

9-10-J-Q: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.93) = 8pts

Potential:

6-9-10-J: Improves with 5555, 666, 8888, 999, 101010, JJJ, QQQ = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 10/12pts with 999, 101010, JJJ = 9 cuts. Plus 10 hearts for an extra 1pt for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

2-10-J-Q: Improves with 222, 3333, 5555, 999 + 13xXs = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 8/9pts with 3333, 5555, 101010, JJJ, QQQ = 17 cuts. Plus 10 hearts for an extra 1pt for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

9-10-J-Q: Improves with 5555, 666, 8888, 999 + 13xXs = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 10pts with 5555, 999, 101010, JJJ, QQQ = 16 cuts. Plus 10 hearts for an extra 1pt for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

Pegging:

Not much between them in the pegging. They all have close cards.

Position:

Looks as if we were First Pone and still will be playing Offense to catch up position.

Summary:

2-10-J-Q and 9-10-J-Q have more cuts for improvement and more cuts for a good hand but 6-9-10-J has a better maximum with 999 for 12pts. I like 9-10-J-Q for the 16 cuts for 10pts although it has the lowest starting value and there will be some negative delta with 2-6 as we hold a 9. But I'll throw 2-6.

   

Tuesday 12:04 PM

At 8*-15 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W8 %____W9 %
9-10-J-Q__6.61+2.83+3.92=13.36____15.1____16.5
6-9-10-J__7.09+2.59+3.46=13.14____14.5____15.6
2-10-J-Q__5.52+2.13+5.11=12.76____14.1____15.1

Offense_______L8 %____L9 %
9-10-J-Q______36.3____56.9
6-9-10-J______37.2____58.1
2-10-J-Q______36.8____57.9

9-10-J-Q is best for expected averages by 0.22pt and is also slightly better for Win %s and Loss %s both of which take account of the board position. So I'll select 2-6 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.

   

Tuesday 12:48 PM

I narrowed the choice down between 2-6, or 2-Q for the discard. I have been taught 9-6 has a higher value in my crib, but every time I go that route, I only end up with the same 2 point I start with. The 3 cut seems to bear that out.

This is a time to play defense but with choices this hand presents, it may not work out that well. At least I have several hands to make up any lost points.

   

Tuesday 5:43 PM

Well it took me 50 years of playing before I recognized that extending the run in this case, gaining a bit on pegs makes up for the loss of the point if playing 6-9-10-J. Don't know if it works this way on all runs when going from three cards to four cards in sequence. Might not live long enough to figure that out. It's off., off., off., for me and play on the lead as HalscribCLX displays this day. Appreciate the meaningful comments. Note Coeurdelion's fine analysis and insights above.

   

Tuesday 5:45 PM

Well it took me 50 years of playing before I recognized that extending the run in this case, gaining a bit on pegs makes up for the loss of the point if playing 6-9-10-J. Don't know if it works this way on all runs when going from three cards to four cards in sequence. Might not live long enough to figure that out. It's off., off., off., for me and play on the lead as HalscribCLX displays this day. Appreciate the meaningful comments. Note Coeurdelion's fine analysis and insights above.