October 18, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Inushtuk1
94-91*  ?
35%
29%
24%
7%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 157
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:05 AM
Toss (7 9) is too risky, and it hurts us too much to throw either the Deuce or Trey, so we are forced to look at retaining either Keep (A 2 3 9) or Keep (2 3 4 9) today.

Toss (4 7) and Toss (A 7) are both similar in that they rely upon the "Isolation" characteristic in which ONLY the combination of a "like" card will significantly boost the point total.

But there is a difference on OUR side of the board between the two RUNs, since A-2-3 is "bounded" on the 'low' side, and yet 2-3-4 is "unbounded" on both ends of the RUN.

Thus by simple process-of-elimination, we find that Keep (2 3 4 9) and Toss (A 7) is the preferred choice today.

With nine Cuts (222, 333, 444) for 12 Points, we have almost a 20% shot at those Dozen Points.

The Trey is a good card to lead, since if paired we can safely parry for (15-2) with our 9 Card, and we can also safely score (15-2) after ANY of 16 "X" or Ten Cards.
Guest says: We agree on keeping the 9 and shortening the straight, and I can't fault your logic for keeping the 4 and tossing the A. But sometimes you have to play by gut, and I rather give him the even 4 than odd A in the crib. Dwight
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Dwight. I don't think odds or evens should enter into it.
JQT says: I'll apply some math (below)...
Guest says: Why do you consider 7 9 too risky?
JQT says: While Toss (A 7) and Toss (4 7) each have a Crib Value of about 4.90 Points, Toss (7 9) 'chimes in' at closer to 5.25 Points (Schell). And while I've often referred to Toss (7 9) as "The Curse" (since it frequently "disappoints us" on BOTH sides of the board), it is, like all things in Cribbage, relative. Just the presence of a single 8 Card can "launch" a Toss (7 9) discard toward Five Points! Meanwhile, it takes a lot more coordination and "bad luck" for either Toss (A 7) or Toss (4 7) to 'conspire' against us and yield that many points, although as I mentioned earlier today and with some irony, that all three of these discard selections can ultimately produce whopping Twenty-Four-Point Cribs! For it's not about what they CAN do, but more importantly, what they are LIKELY to do.
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:04 AM
79 Risky. Defensive eleven. I had mentioned that A-2-3-4 is not a preferable hold later in a game this is one example as such. Three lead. dec
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:07 AM
Toss A-7 less risky and hold the small run 2-3-4 which has more cuts for improvement
Guest says: KIlrow was here yesterday
Guest says: Kilroy
joekayak
1873 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:08 AM
All cuts improve this hand putting me squarely in or just beyond the CPZ. Defense defense defense. A-9 seems safer than A-7
glmccuskey
4095 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:29 AM
I think 4-7 is more defensive then A-7. I’ll lead the three and peg it defensively.
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:00 AM
Thought about keeping A-3-4-7 and leading the 4:
4(4)-4(8/2)-7(15/2)... or,
4(4)-X(14)-A(15/2)...

but I've gone for the more conventional (and three points more valuable) 2-3-4-9. 3 lead.
3(3)-3(6/2)-9(15/2)... or,
3(3)-X(13)-2(15/2)... or maybe,
3(3)-8(11)-4(15/2)...
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:18 AM
I think JQT covers all the relevant aspects of this hold.
Guest says: I agreed with McCuskey today. Speking of You Tube videos, you're in the one that Campbell posted on the ACC FFB page. S :)
Guest says: Speaking*
Ras2829
5146 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:29 AM
JQT sets the parameters for retaining 2-3-4-9 very well for me. It's def., def., def. RAS has nine points after the cut of that six spot. Fourth street CPZ is 95-99 and I will be at a minimum of 103. Given that, the trey is the proper lead and allows me to retain an escape card with the 9 in event dealer plays on my lead. If had been at hole 84, would have led the 9, keeping 2-3-4 intact. Inushtuk1 commented regarding the crib classes here. The first two classes are complete with students from Battle Ground, Tacoma, Vashon Island, Wenatchee, and 7 from Chehalis-Centralia area. With some local radio public service announcements through the 25th, a bit of local newspaper coverage believe we will hit 20 for the next session. The next class is Discarding to Opponent Crib and includes material you never knew existed. If passing through the I-5 corridor on a Tuesday, check them out. Class time is 6:30 at 1400 Grand Avenue, Centralia WA 98531 with presentation, question/answer, discussion followed by three games of cribbage. That concludes by 9:00 PM. There is no charge, take-hone printed matter is provided. Don't need to bring a thing. We even provide lined tablets and pens for those who wish to take notes. The classes are provided as a public service supported by the Chehalis-Centralia Cribbage Club. There are a few quizzes along the way. If a student gets a perfect score on one of those, they get to teach the ensuing class. Wouldn't you know? Nobody gets a good score! There will be an updated series of U-tube videos on cribbage strategy. The present set was recorded seven years ago. And we're having fun too!
Inushtuk1 says: Cool!
james500 says: Great news about there being some new YouTube videos. Pleas let us know when they're available to watch.
JQT says: I think the current (or older) RAS videos are however 'CLASSICS' so I hope these remain available and accessible as well as the 'newer' ones. Also, as we leap into this new millennium, one thing that I believe is really lacking in this 'Wonderful Game of Cribbage' is an archive of a large set of high-level games. If you use a program such as Halscrib and if you maintain a Win-Rate that is close to or exceeding 50%, it should be of extreme value to future programmers to have the current generation of players gather up a collection of millions of saved games to facilitate 'learning' and to also build helpful databases from the games. It is very sad that we don't already have such collected games of both past and existing Master-Level players available, and what's even more sad is that it 'costs' nothing to save games (even Hessel's 1997 program had an archive feature). In addition, for many years I have been trying to concoct and develop an easy protocol for allowing players to unobtrusively 'capture' some of their games during 'live' play, much like a bowling score or a golf card. Maybe it cannot (or should not) be done; I'm still uncertain. But very few actual REAL archived Cribbage Games exist, even from amongst top-level players, not in print nor online; compare this with Chess, where one can easily study virtually every high-level move played since about 1851! Thoughts or ideas?
Guest says: RAS, what’s the numbers look like between A-7 and 4-7 to opponents crib
Guest says: The new videos are on YouTube. Search for Cribbage Strategy Part 1A
Jazzselke says: For complete defense, should 2347 be considered? Less hand potential, but A9 more defensive than A7 or 47?
Ras2829 says: For those who might be interested, these are the discarding profiles for A-7 and 4-7 discards to opponent crib. A-7 average is 4.813 (1,046) 38/91, scores 2 or less 28.202% , tallies 3-7 50.127%, reaches 8-11 17.083%, and scores 12 or more points 4.588%. The 4-7 average is 4.997 (695) 47/91,scores 2 or less 28.777%, tallies 3-7 46.381%, reaches 8-11 19.375%, and scores 12 or more 5.467%. For those who may not be familiar, the number in parentheses is the actual number of times discarded/recorded in live play. The final crib of the game was not counted unless some part of it was actually scored in the play lf the game. By not counting many of the final cribs, I avoided those cribs that didn't matter in which a player would discard anything as had enough to count out. For what it's worth!
Ras2829 says: Hi jazzselke: Would not have a problem at hole 94 discarding the A-9 as all cards add value, and the A-7 or 4-7 are a long ways down the list. The A-9 4.340 (1,604) 14/91, scores 2 or less 30.174%, tallies 3-7 53.305% (frequent 2-3 is primary reasons for the uptick in cribs of 3-7), scores 8-11 14.713%, and tallies 12 or more 1.808%.
Gougie00
5724 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:45 AM
Dave Statz convinced me that A7 is usually a clunker in the crib. You may get toasted for 12 or more every now and again, but A7 is a good percentage play. Plus I retain 234 which should be a good pegger and has a chance to be a 12 hand.

I was going to mention I would lead the 9 if I needed to peg. Ras beat me to the punch. I think the 3 lead is the proper lead here and depending on what the response is, I think I'd like to ditch the 4 next.

If the dealer has a 16 hand then we are dead regardless of how smart we play. I'll play it like he has 8 or less and try to stifle.
JQT says: Yes, both Toss (A 7) and Toss (4 7) are usually quite safe. Isn't it ironic that while all three popular discards today: Toss (A 7), Toss (4 7), and Toss (7 9), can indeed become instrumental in forming a whopping Twenty-Four-Point Crib, that the odds of those first two discards producing such a large Crib are rather small as compared to the last of the three.
spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 8:31 AM
Will try to get out in 2 deals and at the same time prevent dealer from doing same by pegging defensively.
spin121 says: So yeah, 3 lead.
spin121 says: So yeah, 3 lead.
Guest says: 1239 was tempting because of the 3 cut for 14
Guest says: 1239 was tempting because of the 3 cut for 14
Guest says: spin
Guest says: spin
JQT says: It would be fair to assume that those Extra Three Cuts (333) that reach 14 Points with Keep (A 2 3 9) would 'make up' for the lower value of the 'bounded' RUN of A-2-3, so how else might we intuit that Keep (2 3 4 9) will produce a slightly higher Expected Average for us? Well, A-2-3 only 'adds up' to SIX, which is of course less than half of Fifteen, so if we ignore the 9 Card for a moment (which will most likely only benefit either RUN choice EQUALLY), less than HALF the deck, i.e., only Cuts of NINE AND HIGHER, fewer than Twenty Cards (999, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), or 19 DIV 46 equals 0.413 or about 41% will form (15-2) with those three cards of A-2-3. Meanwhile, the 2-3-4 RUN 'adds up' to NINE, therefore we can add quite a few, or about EIGHT MORE CUTS (6666, 8888) such that 27 DIV 46 equals 0.587 or nearly 59% of the remaining cards will make (15-2) with just those three cards in the higher 2-3-4 RUN. These are simple concepts we CAN apply to such discard choice and do so efficiently and in a manner that is almost without any necessary calculation, if we just apply a bit of thought and 'sense' of logic.
JQT says: It would be fair to assume that those Extra Three Cuts (333) that reach 14 Points with Keep (A 2 3 9) would 'make up' for the lower value of the 'bounded' RUN of A-2-3, so how else might we intuit that Keep (2 3 4 9) will produce a slightly higher Expected Average for us? Well, A-2-3 only 'adds up' to SIX, which is of course less than half of Fifteen, so if we ignore the 9 Card for a moment (which will most likely only benefit either RUN choice EQUALLY), less than HALF the deck, i.e., only Cuts of NINE AND HIGHER, fewer than Twenty Cards (999, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), or 19 DIV 46 equals 0.413 or about 41% will form (15-2) with those three cards of A-2-3. Meanwhile, the 2-3-4 RUN 'adds up' to NINE, therefore we can add quite a few, or about EIGHT MORE CUTS (6666, 8888) such that 27 DIV 46 equals 0.587 or nearly 59% of the remaining cards will make (15-2) with just those three cards in the higher 2-3-4 RUN. These are simple concepts we CAN apply to such discard choice and do so efficiently and in a manner that is almost without any necessary calculation, if we just apply a bit of thought and 'sense' of logic.
Guest says: Great insight jqt.
Guest says: Great insight jqt.
Guest says: Spin
Guest says: Spin
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 10:54 AM
In a nutshell I prefer A-7 rather than 4-7. Simply because the A is less use to dealer than the 4. Ras and JQT agree - that's good!
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 1:22 PM
Let's "do the math" on this puzzle.

It's fascinating to note that I do recall that after many discards, Keep (2 3 4 9) and Keep (A 2 3 4) are often essentially equal, as this is related to an interesting and almost identical puzzle (111-110*) (A 2 3 4 9 T) that appeared on this site back around mid August 2016, one that I had already once worked out!

Let's see if/and how this puzzle may be similar:

(94-91*) (As 2h 3d 4c 7s 9h)

After carefully "Mapping Out" the three most compelling choices of Toss (A 7), Toss (7 9), and Toss (4 7), there seem to exist some startling similarities (such as an IDENTICAL Expected Average) and also some astonishing differences (in spite of those two very unusual similarities, there are actually quite a remarkable number of differences between these hands). I did "Map Out" these three most interesting choices, so let's examine the details:

Keep (2 3 4 9) Toss (A 7)

09x12=108 - 222, 333, 444 (9 Cuts = 12 Points)
07x09=063 - 6666, 999 (16 Cuts >= 9 Points)
03x08=024 - AAA (19 Cuts >= 8 Points)
20x07=140 - 8888, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK (39 Cuts >= 7 Points)
04x06=024 - 5555 (43 Cuts >= 6 Points)
03x05=015 - 777 (3 Cuts = 5 Points)
---------
46 374

Expected Average is: 374 DIV 46 is 8.13 Points

--

Keep (A 2 3 4) Toss (7 9)

12x10=120 - AAA, 222, 333, 444 (12 Cuts = 10 Points)
23x08=184 - 8888, 999, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK (35 Cuts >= 8 Points)
04x07= 28 - 5555 (39 Cuts >= 7 Points)
07x06= 42 - 6666, 777 (7 Cuts = 6 Points)
---------
46 374

Expected Average is: 374 DIV 46 is 8.13 Points

--

Keep (A 2 3 9) Toss (4 7)

03x14=042 - 333 (3 Cuts = 14 Points)
06x12=072 - AAA, 222 (9 Cuts >= 12 Points)
03x09=027 - 999 (12 Cuts >= 9 Points)
03x08=024 - 444 (15 Cuts >= 8 Points)
24x07=168 - 5555, 6666, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK (39 Cuts >= 7 Points)
07x05=035 - 777, 8888 (7 Cuts = 5 Points)
---------
46 368

Expected Average is: 368 DIV 46 is 8.00 Points

--

We should only use 'guts' when math cannot be substituted: in this case, Keep (A 2 3 9) will produce an Expected Average of 8.00 Points, and Keep (2 3 4 9) will produce an Expected Average of 8.13 Points. While we cannot be expected to perform such heroic calculations 'over the board,' surely that extra 0.13 Points is a result of the 'unbounded' RUN of the 2-3-4; this in spite of the three Cuts that yield a staggering 14 Points for the former discard choice! I performed all of my math today without any help from either Coffee or Bourbon, so please kindly excuse any errors! ; - )
JQT says: The related puzzle mentioned above appeared on Aug 18, 2016 - reference: http://dailycribbagehand.org/show.php?date=2016/08/18
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 1:26 PM
Keeping the Ace with the 2-3-4 does not usually give you any more pegging unless the dealer has a similar hand. A234 has a maximum of 10 points plus a probable 2 or 3 pegs. By keeping the 9, you have a suitable escape card if a "run battle" appears. By playing the 9 you have a better chance of setting up the smaller cards for later pegging.. Lead the 3,and let the play begin.