November 12, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
36*-39  ?
54%
41%
2%
1%
0%
Total votes: 139
JQT
4137 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 3:00 AM
Finally, a discard decision we can all agree upon! : - )
dec
6328 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 3:11 AM
Can not recall in live play too many 16 plus crib on either side with fives tossed but this is the play still. By the way I had a hunch on that ten keep yesterday I shou not second guess myself. Eleven count on hand keep so it might be defense here and bank on the crib. dec
spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Sunday 3:19 AM
Offense
spin121 says: Two fives to my crib now I hope pone tossed 10 k just to make his day.
james500
3896 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Sunday 4:07 AM
Assuming the pegging begins:

X(10)-8(18)-X(28)...

Should I now play my 3 for 31/2, or the 2 for 30 hoping to score a go, keeping the 3-4 together in case the second round of pegging then goes:

X(10)-3(13)-5(18)-4(22/3+1)?

With two fives known to be out of circulation, probably better to assume Pone doesn't have any and take the 31/2 I guess?
Inushtuk1 says: You raise a very good question James. I guess it all comes down to, do we need to peg 5 holes, or I we satisfied with 3? With two fives in the crib, I think most would just play it straight, and take the (31-2). But your question brings up a pet peeve of mine. As Pone, I always know exactly how many points I have after the starter is turned. Assuming I did not miscount the points in my hand. Something I still do annoyingly too often. But it’s more gray as Dealer. I know I have 7 in my hand, 1 for Dealer’s peg, and at *least* 2 in my crib. But I could have as much as 29. I know my average is 8.88 minus a bit of negative delta with the 4 in my hand. But there is a broad range that my crib could be. So as Dealer I am never sure whether to switch from offense to defense and vice-versa. As Pone it is much simpler to decide. At least that is the case for me. Comments from all the Masters would be appreciated. Another question to raise is, if Pone leads the 10, do we play the 8, to keep the run intact, or do we play the 3? I think our position is desperate enough that we should play the 8. But there again, if I have 24 in my crib, maybe I would be better off to play it safe with the 3. Again comments anyone?
Inushtuk1 says: Of course with the 10 cut I have at least 6 in my crib, not 2. But my general point is still valid. Had my opponent tossed me (4-7), and cut me a 2, I *would* be very disappointed when I turn over my 2 point crib.
cribbagepogo says: A bird in the hand.
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Sunday 4:31 AM
late on board but 5-5 for me, too. Values are 8.88 pts vs. 3.82 pts. and combined value (avg. exp. hand plus crib are: 17.08 pts. vs. 16.32 points. respectively.
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 4:34 AM
So far JQT is correct.
BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016

 
 
 
Sunday 5:10 AM
Sorry to be the one but I like the double run with those 5-5's. Without much luck this hand could develope into a whopper.
glmccuskey
4076 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Sunday 6:32 AM
It’s all been said above me. Nice hand, crib and pegging potential.
Gougie00
5703 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 6:52 AM
Huge difference between my crib and his crib. May as well speculate and toss 55. Looking for my opponent to toss me 2 faces.

Excellent pegger, lets mix it up.
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Sunday 8:17 AM
I don't need much encouragement to throw 5-5 but let's look at both:

2-3-4-8: 5pts + 8¾pts (Schell: 8.79) = 13¾pts

3-4-5-5: 8pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.66) = 11½pts

Potential:

2-3-4-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 55, 6666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/9/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 55, 888 = 18 cuts.

3-4-5-5: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 55, 6666, 7777, 888, + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/14/16/17/20pts with 222, 333, 444, 55, 6666, 7777 + 16xXs = 35 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 2-3-4-8 with 3 low cards and a high card, close cards and a magic eleven will peg best.

Position:

We need to be at 70pts or better for our next deal which is 34pts away. If we can score 20-24pts or more this deal we have a reasonable chance of this. I'll play Offense to try to achieve it.

Summary:

2-3-4-8 starts with 2¼pts more than 3-4-5-5 and also it has the most number of cuts for improvement. 3-4-5-5 has the best maximum at 20pts and 35 cuts for 12-20pts. However I believe with the much better starting value and the better pegging 2-3-4-8 has the better chance of reaching about 24pts this deal. So its 5-5 for me.
The_Bee_Mann
306 votes

Joined: November 2016

 
 
 
Sunday 9:32 AM
Perfect time to discard the pair of 5s. Turns out I have 7 pts in my hand and at least 6 in the crib. Who knows what the pone discards, maybe a couple face cards.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 11:58 AM
At 36*-39 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Our
Offense____Hand__Pegs_Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
2-3-4-8_____8.24+3.59+8.77=20.60____33.9____34.3
3-4-5-5____12.52+3.50+3.32=19.34____30.9____34.6

Offense________L6 %____L7 %
2-3-4-8________34.3____45.8
3-4-5-5________31.0____44.8

2-3-4-8 is better for expected averages by 1.26pts amd is also appreciably better for Win %s. 3-4-5-5 is better for Loss %s but even so I'll select 5-5 to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
Guest says: Look how many didn't toss the 5s. Amazing
Inushtuk1
1465 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Sunday 12:05 PM
Yes. (5-5) to the crib, and a two card eleven bonus in my hand. Extra bonus: I may score a run or two as well. Offense to the lead; which means putting my 8 on Pone’s 10 card lead. The play is 2/3rds covered, as Pone’s 9 makes the count (27-3), and our 4 closes the count at (31-2).
Inushtuk1 says: And let us not forget the Big Hand Rule. The answer is yes to both questions.
Inushtuk1 says: One thing no one has touched upon is the terrible crib average of (2-8). Even at the best of times (2-8) is nothing to write home about, as we don’t expect a 5 from our opponent. But look how low an average Halscrib gives it, with us holding two 5s in our hand. The 3-4-5-5 will peg about the same on offense as 2-3-4-8. But the crib is almost sure to disappoint us, despite its much higher average hand.
james500 says: Hi Mike. Reading my newly delivered copy of Cribbage World this weekend, I see belated congratulations are called for, well done on your tournament win back in August. Also an interesting article on page 17 about regular Dailycribbagehand contributors JMath and Glmccuskey.
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks James. I have not received mine yet, but was enjoying being under the radar for awhile. I guess that’s the end of that. I look forward to reading those articles. Best wishes.
Ras2829
5126 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 8:21 PM
Think this is the 3rd or 4th time I've submitted this puzzle over the last several years. As I recall the past votes, this is the first time the 5-5 discard has broken the 50% barrier. Inushtuk1 points out this is a classic Big Hand rule candidate. Still 45% have opted for some other choice at this posting with 40% choosing 3-4-5-5.