November 12, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
36*-39  ?
54%
41%
2%
1%
0%
Total votes: 139

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JQT
2095 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Sunday 3:00 AM
Finally, a discard decision we can all agree upon! : - )
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dec
3813 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Sunday 3:11 AM
Can not recall in live play too many 16 plus crib on either side with fives tossed but this is the play still. By the way I had a hunch on that ten keep yesterday I shou not second guess myself. Eleven count on hand keep so it might be defense here and bank on the crib. dec
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spin121
211 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Sunday 3:19 AM
Offense
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james500
1589 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Sunday 4:07 AM
Assuming the pegging begins:

X(10)-8(18)-X(28)...

Should I now play my 3 for 31/2, or the 2 for 30 hoping to score a go, keeping the 3-4 together in case the second round of pegging then goes:

X(10)-3(13)-5(18)-4(22/3+1)?

With two fives known to be out of circulation, probably better to assume Pone doesn't have any and take the 31/2 I guess?
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Rosemarie44
647 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Sunday 4:31 AM
late on board but 5-5 for me, too. Values are 8.88 pts vs. 3.82 pts. and combined value (avg. exp. hand plus crib are: 17.08 pts. vs. 16.32 points. respectively.
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Andy (muesli64)
1292 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Sunday 4:34 AM
So far JQT is correct.
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BigFoot Bob
566 votes

Joined: April 2016

   
Sunday 5:10 AM
Sorry to be the one but I like the double run with those 5-5's. Without much luck this hand could develope into a whopper.
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glmccuskey
2460 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Sunday 6:32 AM
It’s all been said above me. Nice hand, crib and pegging potential.
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Gougie00
3326 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Sunday 6:52 AM
Huge difference between my crib and his crib. May as well speculate and toss 55. Looking for my opponent to toss me 2 faces.

Excellent pegger, lets mix it up.
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Coeurdelion
3282 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Sunday 8:17 AM
I don't need much encouragement to throw 5-5 but let's look at both:

2-3-4-8: 5pts + 8¾pts (Schell: 8.79) = 13¾pts

3-4-5-5: 8pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.66) = 11½pts

Potential:

2-3-4-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 55, 6666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/9/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 55, 888 = 18 cuts.

3-4-5-5: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 55, 6666, 7777, 888, + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/14/16/17/20pts with 222, 333, 444, 55, 6666, 7777 + 16xXs = 35 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 2-3-4-8 with 3 low cards and a high card, close cards and a magic eleven will peg best.

Position:

We need to be at 70pts or better for our next deal which is 34pts away. If we can score 20-24pts or more this deal we have a reasonable chance of this. I'll play Offense to try to achieve it.

Summary:

2-3-4-8 starts with 2¼pts more than 3-4-5-5 and also it has the most number of cuts for improvement. 3-4-5-5 has the best maximum at 20pts and 35 cuts for 12-20pts. However I believe with the much better starting value and the better pegging 2-3-4-8 has the better chance of reaching about 24pts this deal. So its 5-5 for me.
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The_Bee_Mann
293 votes

Joined: November 2016

   
Sunday 9:32 AM
Perfect time to discard the pair of 5s. Turns out I have 7 pts in my hand and at least 6 in the crib. Who knows what the pone discards, maybe a couple face cards.
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HalscribCLX
3032 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Sunday 11:58 AM
At 36*-39 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Our
Offense____Hand__Pegs_Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
2-3-4-8_____8.24+3.59+8.77=20.60____33.9____34.3
3-4-5-5____12.52+3.50+3.32=19.34____30.9____34.6

Offense________L6 %____L7 %
2-3-4-8________34.3____45.8
3-4-5-5________31.0____44.8

2-3-4-8 is better for expected averages by 1.26pts amd is also appreciably better for Win %s. 3-4-5-5 is better for Loss %s but even so I'll select 5-5 to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
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Inushtuk1
384 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Sunday 12:05 PM
Yes. (5-5) to the crib, and a two card eleven bonus in my hand. Extra bonus: I may score a run or two as well. Offense to the lead; which means putting my 8 on Pone’s 10 card lead. The play is 2/3rds covered, as Pone’s 9 makes the count (27-3), and our 4 closes the count at (31-2).
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Ras2829
2818 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Sunday 8:21 PM
Think this is the 3rd or 4th time I've submitted this puzzle over the last several years. As I recall the past votes, this is the first time the 5-5 discard has broken the 50% barrier. Inushtuk1 points out this is a classic Big Hand rule candidate. Still 45% have opted for some other choice at this posting with 40% choosing 3-4-5-5.
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