Wednesday 3:11 AM

Stingy discard here, most can get in it is fourteen. Lead the three here and if you gotta run with it, run with it. I have read 2-3-4 preferable than an A-2-3-4 keep for the fifteen potentials. But with a pretty good lead I will play defense with the discard. Three lead here. dec

   

Wednesday 3:17 AM

This small run increases in value with every cut to more than 4 points. Hand starts at 4 points and has a maximum of 10 points. I always like to compare combined averages for comparison.
Tossing 7-Q is valued at 4.24 pts and A-7 has a value of 4.81 points. (Ras's figures)
7-Q exp. avg. is 8.10 pts minus 4.24 for a result of 3.86 points
A-7 exp. avg. is 8.00 pts minus 4.81 for a result of 3.19 points.
The small run is a really good pegger and the 7-Q is a safe toss to dealer. How did I do Inushtuk1?

   

Wednesday 4:08 AM

Good Morning coach. After reviewing you emails and this post, At least we have15/2-5 card-5 with a total of seven.

   

Wednesday 5:19 AM

I got a chance for 12, so I'll toss the A7. Lead the 3, and peg optimal. No need to mix it up with a 13 pt lead.

   

Wednesday 5:20 AM

Just one card could increase either of A-7 or 4-7 from 0 points to 4. Much less synergy between a Queen and a 7, as they cannot be used together to create a 15/2 because 10+7=17.

I'll lead the 4, which leaves me with a scoring reply on Dealer responses of an A,2,3,5,8,9 or X (35/46) = 76%.

35 cards = 36 cards - 1 card =
35 cards = (6*6 cards) - 1 card =
35 cards = (6*13%) - 2% =
35 cards = 78% - 2% =
35 cards = 76%.

   

Wednesday 9:01 AM

Even without the good 7 Q discard I almost always keep this 4 card run. Dealer is at least 5 holes short - need to keep him that way. Defense.

   

Wednesday 9:01 AM

I prefer to hold either a 6, 8, or 9 Card with my 2-3-4 RUN, thank you, otherwise it's better to retain the full A-2-3-4 and chuck the unhelpful 7 Card 'over the board' I think.

   

Wednesday 9:11 AM

A-2-3-4 is a good hand and a great offensive pegging setup, but it can sometimes be difficult to defend. I think I'll do better having the queen as an out card if we get into a pegging war. This hand increases to 7+ points with any cut except a seven, and there are only three of those left. I'll lead the 3.

   

Wednesday 9:44 AM

I prefer to discard the A and 7. Before the cut I already have 5 points with a potential for more. With the cut I have 7 points.

   

Wednesday 10:11 AM

JQT says most of what needs t be said. My scant empirical data shows this retention to be .3 of a point better in combined value because of the lower ranking discard 7/Q 4.243 10/91 as compared to A-7 4.813 38/91. Will lead the four spot as that allows me to score 15-2 on the response of 8, 9, or X. Will play off the lead in defense unless a small card is led, then will have to take what I can get. With a 13 point lead, opponent at 12, and 7 points in hand pegging should not hurt me that much.

   

Wednesday 10:30 AM

7 - Q is a routine throw here?

   

Wednesday 12:15 PM

Three choices? A-2-3-4 (7-Q), A-2-3-Q (4-7) and 2-3-4-Q (A-7):

A-2-3-4: 4pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.32) = -¼pt

A-2-3-Q: 5pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.88) = 0pts

2-3-4-Q: 5pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.89) = +¼pt

Potential:

A-2-3-4: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 10pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444 = 12 cuts. And 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 23 cuts achieve 8pts.

A-2-3-Q: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 9999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 76.1% up to 9/12/14pts with AAA, 222, 333, QQQ = 12 cuts.

2-3-4-Q: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 43 cuts = 93.5% up to 9/10/12pts with 222, 333, 444, QQQ = 12 cuts.

Pegging:

I think all the hands will peg well but perhaps A-2-3-4 the best.


Position:

Ideally we'd like to be at 44pts for our next deal. That's 19pts away so is unlikely but I'll play Offense to try to get as near as possible.

Summary:

A-2-3-4 is guaranteed improvement with the cut and although it has a lower maximum at 10pts it has 12 cuts for this and 23 cuts for 8pts. It starts with ½pt less than 2-3-4-Q but also should peg somewhat better so I'll opt for the lower scoring discard of 7-Q and start with the long run.

   

Wednesday 12:48 PM

At 25-12* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib___Total___W7 %___W8 %
A-2-3-4___8.13+(-2.72)+(-4.43)=0.98____23.9___53.1
A-2-3-Q___7.83+(-2.54)+(-4.49)=0.80____22.7___51.3
2-3-4-Q___8.00+(-2.67)+(-4.59)=0.74____23.4___52.6

Defense______L7 %____L8 %
A-2-3-4______8.8_____20.8
A-2-3-Q______8.7_____20.9
2-3-4-Q______8.7_____20.6

A-2-3-4 is best for expected averages by 0.18pt and is slightly best for Win %s and a very close second best for Loss %s. So I'll select 7-Q to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll lead the 2:

Lead_________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
2__________________(-2.14)
3__________________(-2.22)
A__________________(-2.26)
4__________________(-2.38)

   

Wednesday 2:05 PM

There seems to be some tendency to equate the A-7 as a low-scoring discard. Let's take a look at my empirical data to compare the 7-Q with the A-7. These figures are from live play and number in parentheses represents number of times discarded and recorded to opponent crib. The 7-Q averages 4.2543 (2,187) 10/91, scores 2 or less 33.79%, scores 3-7 46.229%, scores 8-11 16.095%, and reaches 12 or more 3.886%. The A-7 is a long ways down the list at 38/91 averages 4.813 (1,046), scores 2 or less 28.202%, tallies 3-7 50.127%, scores 8-11 17.083%, and reaches 12 or more 4.588%. It's def. def. def. for me and think that is reflected in HalscribCLX analysis above. If choosing an offense pegging strategy, leading from the edge of the sequence is the correct choice. The deuce lead is the poorest choice if choosing offense; so reckon it must be the best choice if playing defense. you can see those figures above. RAS will probably never be able to calculate the potential values in this way; so remembering that offense calls for the lead from the upper end of the sequence is likely the best can do. Then 2 or 3 would be close if choosing defense with the 3 proving more offense. Will try to dump the 3 next play to put some space between the remaining A-4. The 2 lead does allow me to score 15-2 on dealer response of 9 or X. Will play off dealer cards unless a small card is played on my deuce lead. In that case will try to score what I can. It's unlikely that dealer would put a trey on a deuce. More likely to play a four spot or an Ace. Might pair my deuce as out of position. In that case, would play the four spot. So it goes.

Wednesday 4:22 PM

Let’s all hop into our time machines now. Set your dials for Dec.16, 2016. I submitted a very similar puzzle that was featured that day. The only difference is the 8 has now been replaced with a 7, and we are now Pone. Last year, as Dealer, I chose A-2-3-Q(4-8). Going for the maximum hand of 14 points, plus keeping 2-3-4-8(A-Q) had negative delta attached to it. I thought it was interesting that now as Pone, on defense, the A-2-3-4 was best. I always kept A-2-3-X no matter which side of the board the deck was on, because of what Colvert said about this 4 card run. But not any more.

I’ll lead the 3.