Thursday 3:03 AM

It seems almost obvious that we would wish to retain the 7-8-9 RUN here, but with the Dealer at Hole 95, already encroaching along Fourth Street, a strong case could perhaps be made for making a "safe" discard, one *without* either the Trey OR the 4 Card in it.

We should therefore probably examine Toss (9 Q), as it is not only the safest discard we have today, but it also allows us to retain a respectable Four Points.

Alas, without the 7-8-9 RUN, we would lose the extreme *potential growth* that is contained within the RUN. It's a close call, but I think I'll side with holding that RUN here. But I don't think we should fault anyone for deciding upon Toss (9 Q).

Okay: Do we retain the Trey or the 4 Card along with a 7-8-9 RUN? Either card completes a two-card "Magic Eleven," but as Pone, these constructs cannot really help us.

Maybe it's more about the pegging: if we lead either a Trey or a 4 Card, and if it gets PAIRED, do we have a way to parry for two points? Yes, and Yes! So far, we're drawing a blank.

Which of these two cards then is more likely to help the Dealer's Crib? Usually, when all other things are equal (which they seldom are, but today may be the exception), I tend to favor tossing EVEN as opposed to ODD cards.

And here we finally find some difference. Because it takes at least one ODD card to make any (15-2) combination, I'll Toss (4 Q) today and then lead the Trey.

   

Thursday 3:04 AM

It matters more what they might get in their crib. Defense. Four lead. dec

   

Thursday 3:08 AM

In this position I want to get the points as opposed to holding dealer back so I am starting with 5 points with a potential for 12 points.
both tosses are usually only worth 2 points or less to opponent per Ras. I like the run as it has more potential for double run.

   

Thursday 5:12 AM

I was tempted to toss Q9, but I kept the 9 to prevent a 7 or 8 from being cut. Lead the 8 and use the 3 to escape.

   

Thursday 5:46 AM

9-Q has to be the play. Yes we have 4 points instead of five but I’ll play I few points short of needed. I’ll lead the four.

   

Thursday 6:18 AM

Was going to lead the 4 so I could parry with the 7 if paired, but having seen the cut I'll lead my 3 as there are fewer in circulation.

   

Thursday 7:12 AM

I feel we have to play max defense with the opponent at Hole 95. Yes,we would like to get past Hole 95; the only cards that don't improve our hand are the face cards.And holding 3789 or 4789 can get us in pegging trouble if our opponent has middle cards.

   

Thursday 7:20 AM

If I don't stop dealer from going out in two deals I lose. So opted for best discard available.

   

Thursday 8:34 AM

This one’s directly from Ras’s first class this year. I believe he also mentioned it seven years ago as well. He likes the (Q-9). And if there was ever a time to play safe it’s now.

Might switch to offense now, knowing I made a very stingy discard to Dealer’s crib, with no apparent help from the starter. I’ll lead the 7. Why the 7 and not the 8? Because if it’s paired my 3 makes the count (17). If Dealer follows with an X-card for (27), trying for the Go, my 4 closes the count at (31-2). If Dealer plays the ubiquitous 8 on my 7 lead, I’ll avoid pairing that. Don’t want to risk (31-8) here. I’ll just dump my 3, making the count (18). Maybe get a 9 now from Dealer, and once again my 4 closes the count at (31-2). That’s all I got. Maybe I should just have kept playing safe. Not sure.

   

Thursday 9:15 AM

I discarded the 4 and Q, but I really liked the option of discarding the 9 and Q.

   

Thursday 10:15 AM

Based on my scant empirical data the difference in combined values whether playing 3-7-8-9, 4-7-8-9, or 3-4-7-8 is less than .25 (hundredths) of a point. A query on Cribbage Prof shows combined values favor 4-7-8-9, 3-7-8-9, and 3-4-7-8 in that order. The 3-4-7-8 offers defensive or offensive pegging options not available with ?-7-8-9. In addition the hand often scores 6-8 points (RAS would be satisfied with that), and the 9-Q at 4.120 4/91 scores 2 or less points 42.224% of the time. With dealer already at hole 95, would like to slow down that movement towards the game hole. So it's that low scoring 9-Q to opponent crib and defense on the pegging. Think the lead of the 3 or 4 are probably very close, I prefer the four spot here as if paired, score the 15-2 with the 7 and that splits both 2-card sequences and leaves the widest spread possible between remaining two cards of 3-8. I have been playing the hand this way now for a few years with good results. Of course, if you absolutely need a dozen hold the ?-7-8-9.

   

Thursday 10:45 AM

It must be between 3-7-8-9 or 4-7-8-9 and 3-4-7-8:

3-7-8-9: 5pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.46) = +½pt

4-7-8-9: 5pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.59) = +½pt

3-4-7-8: 4pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.11) = 0pt

Potential:

3-7-8-9: Improves with 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 999, 10101010 = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 9/10/12pts with 333, 777, 888, 999 = 12 cuts.

4-7-8-9: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 6666, 777, 888, 999, 10101010 = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 9/10/12pts with 444, 777, 888, 999 = 12 cuts.

3-4-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 8/9/10pts with 444, 5555, 777, 888 = 13 cuts.

Pegging:

With two low cards I think 3-4-7-8 will peg a little better.

Position:

Dealer is pretty much already in position and we should be deep in the CPZ for next hand especially if we get the cut. I'll peg defensively to keep dealer as short as possible.

Summary:

3-4-7-8 has 4 more cuts for improvement but to a lower maximum so I don't think the potential will catch up the ½pt lower starting value. 3-4-7-8 may also peg better but I think this will also be slight so as Schell rates 4-Q lower I'll keep 3-7-8-9.

   

Thursday 11:55 AM

At 90-95* playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib____Total____W2 %__W3 %
3-7-8-9___7.15+(-2.76)+(-4.55)=(-0.16)__16.2__37.4
4-7-8-9___7.15+(-2.70)+(-4.71)=(-0.26)__16.6__36.4
3-4-7-8___6.63+(-2.87)+(-4.14)=(-0.38)__13.9__36.7

Defense_______L2 %____L3 %
3-7-8-9_______41.2____54.3
4-7-8-9_______43.1____55.4
3-4-7-8_______39.9____55.7

3-7-8-9 is best for expected averages by 0.10pt and is also slightly best for Win %s and Loss %s both of which take account of the board position. So I'll select 4-Q to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Safe:

Lead____________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3____________________(-2.15)
8____________________(-2.21)
7____________________(-2.25)
9____________________(-2.52)

   

Thursday 1:13 PM

Good comments JQT. And the fact that you did play-outs to come to your conclusion means your comments are based in science. And even though I'm not 100 percent in Hal's camp with these results they do seem very believable to me and it's something I am going to continue to consider

   

Thursday 5:04 PM

The run and three is for me.