Saturday 3:08 AM

Early on in the game, I would not hesitate to consider Toss (9 K).

But as we're just rounding Fourth Street and trailing, I'll take my chances with Keep (2 3 K K) today and Toss (A 9).

We're most likely going to lose this game: it's mostly a matter of 'by how much.' But if we can be patient, perhaps we still have a remote chance.

The 5 Card Cut probably helps the Dealer more than it helps us, but that's not yet a certainty, so keep fighting!

After we lead our Trey, we wish to score an early (15-2). If it gets PAIRED, we'll simply 'slump backward' in our chair.

   

Saturday 3:33 AM

I didn't consider the A-2-3-K as it is closed on one end of the run. Tossing A-9 gives us more cuts for improvement at a lower maximum. The run adds up to "sixteen"but that may be an advantage as dealer.

   

Saturday 4:31 AM

I feel relatively confident with this discard. In my experiences I believe there is a notable difference between 95 or 96 even 97 thus the CPZ as mentioned by Ras and others. So I choose how to play to win here rather then how not to lose. I was planning on leading from a King anyway instead of the dealer possibly being agressive with any low card we would have led from. Sounds like I am leaning towards a 25 theory rather then 26. Another learning example to extrapolate from. I also have seen K-9 not what you would expect. dec

   

Saturday 4:52 AM

Have always kept it A-2-3-K. And often been disappointed with the results. Let’s try it this way for a change. Lead the 3.

Good luck to all in Berlin tomorrow. I’m on my way now. Those Connecticut Yankees have always been *particularly* tough on me. I must make amends on the morrow.

   

Saturday 6:20 AM

Guess I’m a bit more defensive than most today. I’ll sacrifice one point to throw the 2nd worse discard in cribbage.

   

Saturday 6:44 AM

Went this way for the points

   

Saturday 7:34 AM

Maximum Defense and K9 usually produces a clunker.
Lead the 3, and take the 15, but play off otherwise.

   

Saturday 7:45 AM

This puzzle is very similar to the one we had day before yesterday except we were at hole 90. Based on that I'll bet the farm that I'm supposed to discard Ace 9 here and start with one extra point in my hand before the cut. But not gonna do it.

   

Saturday 7:48 AM

Threw A - 9. But I am now wondering if that was the best. 9 - K restricts dealer and gives me a chance of a double run.

   

Saturday 9:10 AM

Defense sounds like the play here. What a terrible cut for an all defensive position though.

   

Saturday 12:13 PM

Seems like a straight choice between 2-3-K-K (A-9) and A-2-3-K (9-K):

2-3-K-K: 6pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.55) = +1½pts

A-2-3-K: 5pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.03) = +1pt

Potential:

2-3-K-K: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555 + 14xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 10/12pts with 222, 333, 5555, KK = 12 cuts.

A-2-3-K: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 12/14pts with AAA, 222, 333 = 9 cuts.

Pegging:

With 3 low cards and a high card I think A-2-3-K will peg better.

Position:

Dealer is almost in position and we're well behind. I'll peg Defensively to keep them short.

Summary:

A-2-3-K starts with ½pt less but it has more cuts for improvement and a better maximum. Also it should peg better. So I'll go for the safer 9-K throw.

   

Saturday 12:54 PM

At 88-95* playing a Safe strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib___Total___W2 %___W3 %
A-2-3-K___7.76+(-2.48)+(-4.11)=1.17____12.8___33.6
2-3-K-K___8.37+(-2.98)+(-4.67)=0.72____10.4___33.8

Defense______L2 %____L3 %
A-2-3-K______40.6____59.2
2-3-K-K______39.2____59.4

A-2-3-K is better for expected averages by 0.45pt ans is also slightly better for Win %s. 2-3-K-K is very slightly lower for Loss %s but even so I'll select 9-K to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll lead the 2 and play Defense:

Lead_____________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
2______________________(-1.87)
3______________________(-1.91)
A______________________(-2.17)
K______________________(-2.65)

   

Saturday 3:40 PM

With opponent already at hole 95 with the deal, need to minimize crib score and pegs, Holding three in a row with the King does the best job of that. Seven points after the starter puts me at the beginning of 4th street CPZ 95-99. Playing defense, will break the lower sequence and lead the deuce. If playing an offense strategy, would have led the King. Although the A-9 is a pretty low scoring discard, allow me to chart the profiles of the 9-K and the A-9. The 9-K to opponent crib averages 3.940 (2,640), 2/91 scores two or less 38.143%, tallies 3-7 49.358, scores 8-11 11.628%, and reaches 12 or more .871% (that's less than 1%). That A-9 average is 4.34 (1,604) 14/91, scores 2 or less 30.174%, tallies 3-7 53.305%, scores 8-11 14.713%, and reaches 12 or more 1.808%. So the A-9 produces about 30% fewer 0-2 cribs, about 8% more in the 3-7 range, tallies 30% more in the 8-11 category, and scores more than twice as many cribs of 12 or more points. RAS likes those numbers favoring the 9-K discard. And james500 has been on center stage for a few days now with some very fine puzzles.