December 5, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
0*-0  ?
36%
28%
26%
2%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 169
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:04 AM
First hand as dealer is defense. With the Jack we have two points, 4 points in the hand and two points so far in the crib.
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:34 AM
Seeing we start off with one less (pegging included) I went with a potential of 2 3 5 6 9 to hit main hand. dec
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:53 AM
Thought about putting A-4 in my box, but decided to choose the pear.
Every cut will improve the value of A-3-4-X, and it pegs well against X-X-X-5 if the 5 isn't led:

X(10)-10(20)-X(30)-A(31/2),
X(10)-3(13)-5(18)-4(22/3+1).
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:00 AM
I'm not too wild about Toss (A 4), but to begin the game as First Dealer, I'm no less excited to Toss (6 6).

If a Deuce is Cut, we'll wish we had discarded those 6 Cards, and since we were not dealt a Deuce, there are four of them out there.

I cannot see too much wrong with holding onto the 3-6-6 combination today, although any Cut that helps these cards will tend to help them whether we keep them together or not.

I'll give a slight nod to Toss (A 4) today, but it's really a Toss Up.

Even after taking Two Points for the Jack Cut, I'm *still* not sure if I made the correct choice!
Rosemarie44 says: Hi JQT: Looking at Ras's part 8 video he explains that if dealer gets 7 points on first hand he has 50% chance of wining the game. If I count correctly, we have 8 points on this deal so far.
Inushtuk1 says: 9 points now with that known minimum Dealer one peg. Yahoo!
BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:13 AM
Keeping the cards that may catch me a run.
glmccuskey
4075 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:43 AM
I’ve always like A-4 from this mix. I’ll read on to see if anyone changes my mind.
King Richard
2825 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:46 AM
This is like a football game where you start out pinned on your own half yard line. Let's keep the guaranteed 6 and at least get out on the field!
King Richard says: Jazzselke - This never works for the Bears!
Jazzselke says: Nothing works for the Bears
jmath714
1290 votes

Joined: January 2012

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:21 AM
I think the upside of 6-6-4-3 in count and pegging makes it the play.
Inushtuk1
1464 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:41 AM
I don’t like balking my crib with the (A-10), and me holding one of the 4’s. The A-3-4-10 would be *great* if we were playing offense. But our job this morning is to shut the Pone out in the play of the hand. Just try doing that if Pone leads a 3. If you reply with the 10, and he/she led the 3 from the 3-2 couplet...oh oh. Now what do we do? Your best bet would be to *pair* that 3 on defense, and hope it did not come from a pair. No those three small cards with an X are a big headache when trying to peg defensively. I’ll stick with the weaker (A-4) in my crib, happy knowing I have 6 known points and one for Dealer’s peg today.
Guest says: Don't forget the cut of a Jack.
Inushtuk1 says: Yes of course. I didn’t even notice what Pone cut us. All the more reason to play defense here.
Inushtuk1 says: On most leads I can play my suited 6 with reasonable safety. On the 7, 5, and 4, I play my 10. And the 3 after the 8. Shouldn’t give up too many pegs.
JQT says: Remember: PAIRS, Fifteen-Twos, and even Jacks (Potential Nobs Points) that are sent to our Own Crib may involve *Intrinsic Points*, and therefore most Dealer Crib Value Charts and/or any attendant calculations can be somewhat inflated, since they often include such points. This is one of the primary reasons why discarding PAIRS such as Toss (8 8) can be such under-performing or weak candidates as Dealer Discards. If we don't intend to "split up" those PAIRS or Fifteen-Twos, it usually makes sense to exclude those otherwise possibly 'would-be-doubly-counted' points from any discard analysis. An excellent explanation AND chart describing the phenomena of "With" and "Without" *Intrinsic Points* can be found at: http://blog.cribbagepro.net/2012/10/discarding.html
Inushtuk1 says: Thank you JQT.
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:48 AM
Another teaching moment? First hand of the game can either win or lose the game for you. I'll toss my 66 and hope the pone tosses me a 9. A34 is a superior pegger and I might trap a 5 with the 34.

Since I will probably be short of hole 16, I'll peg aggressive. Next hand will be the double run.
Hillchem says: I think that as long as we get past 16 or 17 on the next deal, then we're okay.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Rob. No; Greg likes to play aggressively as game’s starting Dealer. It seems to work for him.
Hillchem says: Thanks for letting me know. I can understand that. I certainly feel pretty uncertain when I finish the first deal and I've only moved 9 or 10 pegs, even though I'm still technically in position.
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 7:54 AM
A - 4. Marginally better point wise. Pegging?
spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 9:11 AM
This is how I've always played this hand. Maybe I'll learn something today. Ras puzzle so it's going to be close.
spin121 says: Agree with Inushtuk low cards with x card could be trouble if playing defense. Sold me 3 6 6 10 better.
spin121 says: Agree with Inushtuk low cards with x card could be trouble if playing defense. Sold me 3 6 6 10 better.
spin121 says: Wow sitting here on smart phone and sketchy Internet connection. Recipe for disas
spin121 says: Disaster
Guest says: Tommy three times
Guest says: A disaster is when a woman backs into a airplane propeller
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:11 PM
Three possibilities - A-3-4-10 (6-6), 3-4-6-6 (A-10) and 3-6-6-10 (A-10):

A-3-4-10: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.76) = 7¾pts

3-4-6-6: 4pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.42) = 7½pts

3-6-6-10: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 9¼pts

Potential:

A-3-4-10: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 7777, 8888 + 15xXs = 40 cuts = 40/46 = 87.0% up to 6/7/8pts with AAA, 2222, 444, 5555, 101010 = 17 cuts.

3-4-6-6: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 66, 8888, 9999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/11/12/16pts with 2222, 333, 5555, 66, 9999 = 17 cuts.

3-6-6-10: Improves with 2222, 333, 5555, 66, 9999 = 17 cuts = 17/46 = 37.0% up to 8/12pts with 333, 66, 9999 = 9 cuts.

Pegging:

I think A-3-4-10 will peg best playing Offense but playing Defense perhaps 3-6-6-10?

Position:

As First Dealer I'll be playing Defense and hoping to score 16pts or more.

Summary:

3-6-6-10 is 1½-1¾pts better than the other two and although it has many fewer cuts for improvement it still has 9 cuts for 8-12pts. Playing Defense 3-6-6-10 should peg quite well so I'll throw the A-4.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:52 PM
At 44*-48 playing an Offense strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %
4-6-9-9___7.48+2.67+6.89=17.04____17.2____43.9
2-3-4-6___8.41+3.72+4.89=17.02____16.3____40.8
2-3-4-9___8.02+3.46+4.85=16.33____15.0____39.5

Offense_______L5 %____L6 %
4-6-9-9_______12.1____28.7
2-3-4-6_______15.1____33.3
2-3-4-9_______14.8____34.2

Although 4-6-9-9 is only a very slim 0.02pt better than 2-3-4-6 it is significantly best for both Win %s and Loss %s which take account of the board position at 3rd street CPZ. So I'll select 2-3 to discard.

After the A cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Guest says: Hands don't match up
Guest says: Seems to be an analysis for different hand of the day.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 10:34 PM
Must have been a real good puzzle as it definitely stunned the cribbot. HalscribCLX was stunned and is only semi-conscious. Sorry frien! Inuhastuk 1 posted the essence of this hand much earlier. Playing defense, the 3-6-6-10 is the better choice. If playing offense 3-4-6-6 with A-10 discard is the better choice. So often the choice of strategy is paramount in the cards retained.
Ras2829
5125 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 10:36 PM
Now do you get the picture?