December 5, 2017

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
0*-0  ?
36%
28%
26%
2%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 169

Continue playing here against a computer opponent or
Play this scenario out against a robot designed by Hal Mueller for eCribbage.com

Rosemarie44
666 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 3:04 AM
First hand as dealer is defense. With the Jack we have two points, 4 points in the hand and two points so far in the crib.
Reply
dec
3837 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 3:34 AM
Seeing we start off with one less (pegging included) I went with a potential of 2 3 5 6 9 to hit main hand. dec
Reply
james500
1609 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 3:53 AM
Thought about putting A-4 in my box, but decided to choose the pear.
Every cut will improve the value of A-3-4-X, and it pegs well against X-X-X-5 if the 5 isn't led:

X(10)-10(20)-X(30)-A(31/2),
X(10)-3(13)-5(18)-4(22/3+1).
Reply
JQT
2114 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Tuesday 4:00 AM
I'm not too wild about Toss (A 4), but to begin the game as First Dealer, I'm no less excited to Toss (6 6).

If a Deuce is Cut, we'll wish we had discarded those 6 Cards, and since we were not dealt a Deuce, there are four of them out there.

I cannot see too much wrong with holding onto the 3-6-6 combination today, although any Cut that helps these cards will tend to help them whether we keep them together or not.

I'll give a slight nod to Toss (A 4) today, but it's really a Toss Up.

Even after taking Two Points for the Jack Cut, I'm *still* not sure if I made the correct choice!
Reply
BigFoot Bob
585 votes

Joined: April 2016

   
Tuesday 5:13 AM
Keeping the cards that may catch me a run.
Reply
glmccuskey
2483 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Tuesday 5:43 AM
I’ve always like A-4 from this mix. I’ll read on to see if anyone changes my mind.
Reply
King Richard
2668 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 5:46 AM
This is like a football game where you start out pinned on your own half yard line. Let's keep the guaranteed 6 and at least get out on the field!
Reply
jmath714
524 votes

Joined: January 2012

   
Tuesday 6:21 AM
I think the upside of 6-6-4-3 in count and pegging makes it the play.
Reply
Inushtuk1
407 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Tuesday 6:41 AM
I don’t like balking my crib with the (A-10), and me holding one of the 4’s. The A-3-4-10 would be *great* if we were playing offense. But our job this morning is to shut the Pone out in the play of the hand. Just try doing that if Pone leads a 3. If you reply with the 10, and he/she led the 3 from the 3-2 couplet...oh oh. Now what do we do? Your best bet would be to *pair* that 3 on defense, and hope it did not come from a pair. No those three small cards with an X are a big headache when trying to peg defensively. I’ll stick with the weaker (A-4) in my crib, happy knowing I have 6 known points and one for Dealer’s peg today.
Reply
Gougie00
3351 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 6:48 AM
Another teaching moment? First hand of the game can either win or lose the game for you. I'll toss my 66 and hope the pone tosses me a 9. A34 is a superior pegger and I might trap a 5 with the 34.

Since I will probably be short of hole 16, I'll peg aggressive. Next hand will be the double run.
Reply
Andy (muesli64)
1304 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Tuesday 7:54 AM
A - 4. Marginally better point wise. Pegging?
Reply
spin121
238 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 9:11 AM
This is how I've always played this hand. Maybe I'll learn something today. Ras puzzle so it's going to be close.
Reply
Coeurdelion
3304 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 3:11 PM
Three possibilities - A-3-4-10 (6-6), 3-4-6-6 (A-10) and 3-6-6-10 (A-10):

A-3-4-10: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.76) = 7¾pts

3-4-6-6: 4pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.42) = 7½pts

3-6-6-10: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 9¼pts

Potential:

A-3-4-10: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 7777, 8888 + 15xXs = 40 cuts = 40/46 = 87.0% up to 6/7/8pts with AAA, 2222, 444, 5555, 101010 = 17 cuts.

3-4-6-6: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 66, 8888, 9999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/11/12/16pts with 2222, 333, 5555, 66, 9999 = 17 cuts.

3-6-6-10: Improves with 2222, 333, 5555, 66, 9999 = 17 cuts = 17/46 = 37.0% up to 8/12pts with 333, 66, 9999 = 9 cuts.

Pegging:

I think A-3-4-10 will peg best playing Offense but playing Defense perhaps 3-6-6-10?

Position:

As First Dealer I'll be playing Defense and hoping to score 16pts or more.

Summary:

3-6-6-10 is 1½-1¾pts better than the other two and although it has many fewer cuts for improvement it still has 9 cuts for 8-12pts. Playing Defense 3-6-6-10 should peg quite well so I'll throw the A-4.
Reply
HalscribCLX
3055 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 3:52 PM
At 44*-48 playing an Offense strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %
4-6-9-9___7.48+2.67+6.89=17.04____17.2____43.9
2-3-4-6___8.41+3.72+4.89=17.02____16.3____40.8
2-3-4-9___8.02+3.46+4.85=16.33____15.0____39.5

Offense_______L5 %____L6 %
4-6-9-9_______12.1____28.7
2-3-4-6_______15.1____33.3
2-3-4-9_______14.8____34.2

Although 4-6-9-9 is only a very slim 0.02pt better than 2-3-4-6 it is significantly best for both Win %s and Loss %s which take account of the board position at 3rd street CPZ. So I'll select 2-3 to discard.

After the A cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Reply
Ras2829
2842 votes

Joined: November 2008

Tuesday 10:34 PM
Must have been a real good puzzle as it definitely stunned the cribbot. HalscribCLX was stunned and is only semi-conscious. Sorry frien! Inuhastuk 1 posted the essence of this hand much earlier. Playing defense, the 3-6-6-10 is the better choice. If playing offense 3-4-6-6 with A-10 discard is the better choice. So often the choice of strategy is paramount in the cards retained.
Reply
Ras2829
2842 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 10:36 PM
Now do you get the picture?
Reply