Sunday 3:04 AM

I'll lead the 6d.

   

Sunday 3:07 AM

To be honest I was not sure what hand to hold today. It was between tossing T-Q or 4-6. Awaiting other comments.

   

Sunday 3:16 AM

I believe james500 has it correct: Toss (X X) to the rescue!

Leading from our PAIR often makes sense, especially here.

If we lead the Jack, we're "stuck" after a 5 Card reply; if we lead our 4 Card, we're "stuck" after a 7 Card reply.

   

Sunday 3:24 AM

Keeping the run and a six. Try to get the count to 25 to play my six.

   

Sunday 3:32 AM

Lead the 6, trying the 664 trap of a 5.

   

Sunday 3:54 AM

Live and learn looked up some numbers. To be honest 4-6-6-J is what I have done in a game. I have seen it work, sometimes thou 2-4-3 against also. dec

   

Sunday 5:35 AM

Wrong answer stupid! It takes years and years of practice to cut the gut card. The idea was to poison the crib with 10-Q and that failed miserably. ugh ...

Lead the 6 and compound my stupidity.

   

Sunday 5:44 AM

The (10-Q) is quite a bit safer than (4-6); and this way has more upside. JQT calls it 5 card insurance. If we cut the Dealer a 5, we have 14 or 15 points in our hand, plus the old faithful 5 card trap. Of course my opponents always play a 9 on my 6 lead. But now I can jump my lone J and still trap a 5 maybe. Lead the 6. Good luck in Portland.

   

Sunday 7:07 AM

I think it boils down to the choice between 6D-10-J-Q (4-6C) or 4-6-6-J (10-Q):

6-10-J-Q: 3pts - 5½pts (Schell: 5.34) = -2½pts

4-6-6-J: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.61) = -2½pts

Potential:

6-10-J-Q: Improves with 5555, 66, 9999 + 13xXs = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/9pts with 5555, 101010, JJJ, QQQ = 13 cuts. Plus 10 diamons for 1pt for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt

4-6-6-J: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 444, 5555, 66, 9999, JJJ = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 6/14pts with 5555, 66, 9999 = 10 cuts. Plus 10 diamons for 1pt for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt

Pegging:

I think 4-6-6-J will peg much better playing the 5 trap against 5-X-X-X or 5-5-X-X leading the 6.

Position:

We're behind needing a good hand to catch up. I'll play Offense.

Summary:

6-10-J-Q has nearly as many cuts for improvement but to a much better average with 13 cuts for 8/9pts. On the other hand 4-6-6-J has the chance of 14pts. Provides good 5 cut insurance and may peg very well. The 10-Q will also have some negative delta (0.16pt?) as we hold a J. I'll take a chance and throw the 10-Q.

   

Sunday 10:18 AM

At 15-20* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Peg___Crib___Total___W8 %____W9 %
4-6-6-J___4.39+1.41+(-4.62)=1.18____28.3____29.9
6D-10-J-Q_5.15+1.24+(-5.24)=1.15____29.3____29.4

Offense______L8 %____L9 %
4-6-6-J______50.1____52.7
6D-10-J-Q____51.5____52.9

4-6-6-J is ahead for expected averages by a tiny 0.03ppt and 6-10-J-Q is very slightly better for Win %s. 4-6-6-J is also slightly lower for Loss %s so its very close but I'll select 10-Q to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead a 6 and play Offense:

Lead_______Our Pegging Pts.
6_______________1.48
J_______________1.23
4_______________1.23

   

Sunday 10:43 AM

As a rule in hands that contain three smaller cards or three mid cards with X-X-X as a run for three, the percentage play is to discard the two safest X-pointers (10-Q or Q-K generally the choice)to opponent crib. Retain the Jack since it is key connector and offers the chance for an extra point in hand. It's off. off., off., It looked that way in the beginning; the lousy Jack cut makes offense even more imperative. Will lead the 6d as can fake the flush if no X-pointer is dropped ln my 6 lead. Anytime you have 6-6-4 with any fourth card as non-dealer, try for the trap. You can often pull this off in a game. Sometimes you can score the 31-5 two times in a single game. Once in a great while you can stack up three of them for 15 peg points. It works that way if dealer is holding XXXX in any form or any number of fives with X-pointers (5-X-X-X, 5-5-X-X, and even 5-5-5-X). Such a high percentage peg value adds to the hand any time held. Works just fine with non-dealer hands of A-4-6-6, 2-4-6-6, 3-4-6-6, 4-4-6-6, 4-6-6-7, 4-6-6-8, 4-6-6-9 or 4-6-6-X. This added pegging value often makes an average hand out of a low-scoring one. Try it. You'll like it!