January 9, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
48*-42  ?
52%
42%
3%
0%
0%
Total votes: 178

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Rosemarie44
715 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Tuesday 3:09 AM
Seven's in the crib. Prefer those cards rather than J-K. I wasn't completely sure if we want to go offense in this position and that would mean keeping the sevens in the hand.
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dec
3884 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 3:14 AM
I need additional help besides the cuts for the sevens cribbound there they go. Playing off the bestest I can. dec
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joekayak
337 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Tuesday 3:17 AM
Magic 11.Hoping for X card lead, play the seven, next X card-then 2-2 for four points. kind of desperate to get to 69-73. Need points. With A cut, wish I had gone with 7-7 to crib.
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JQT
2156 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Tuesday 3:43 AM
When in trouble, I often look to throw the low-ranking cards into my Crib.

But we're not really in trouble here.

Therefore, I'll retain the wonderful three-card "Magic Eleven" of 2-2-7 and hope to play a 7 Card on Pone's Ten Card (or "X") Lead, and then maybe get those two Deuces to "work" together for (31=4).
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james500
1653 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 4:08 AM
I see the 7-2-2 pegging possibility, but I'll try the pair of sevens in my box.
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DoctorWitty
277 votes

Joined: January 2017

   
Tuesday 4:28 AM
I think having the 7s with the 2s is good for pegging potential, but we can also afford to play carefully and not risk points if we don't need to. Hopefully we'll catch a Queen in the box...
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Andy (muesli64)
1338 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Tuesday 5:20 AM
I prefer 7-7. No need, in this good board position, to speculate on possible pegging with the J-K throw?
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glmccuskey
2524 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Tuesday 5:28 AM
I’ll keep the better peggers.
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Gougie00
3394 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 6:24 AM
Praying for some help.
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Jazzselke
912 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 6:38 AM
Pegging and QK, Q6 and Q9 are common throws.
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JRCeagle78
365 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Tuesday 7:25 AM
I don't expect any help from the pone, but the 7's go to the crib. The 2's should help with the pegging.

With the Ace cut, I only have a guarantee of 11 holes and will be a little short of my goal. I need a little help from the pone to make this hand work.
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Inushtuk1
446 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Tuesday 9:01 AM
I’m in the *slight* minority today. Let’s see if we can change that. I don’t see why so many are so keen on speculating; as Andy, said on the pegging potential of the two pairs. I am dealing *beyond* my 2nd Street CPZ. My opponent is 6 holes *behind* me. Let’s put those two key connectors in the crib where they can do what they do best - *conecting* with the other mid-cards. There are three cards to come in my crib. I’m expecting at least one from the Pone, possibly 2; as he needs to play offense here. And now we see that (7-7) not *only* connects with all the mid-cards; but with an A as well. Why I have been known to be such a generous Dealer, that on occasion I will even deal my opponent A-A-5-J-Q-K. With the potential for 18 points in his/her hand keeping 5-J-Q-K, where do you suppose those Aces will wind up?

On offense there is definitely a strong argument to keep the pairs and they’re wonderful three-card “Magic Eleven”. Just not here. And even on offense a good case could also be made for (7-7).
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Coeurdelion
3348 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 10:05 AM
Its between 2-2-J-K (7-7), 2-2-7-7 (J-K) and 7-7-J-K (2-2), Each starts with 4+0pts or 2+2pts. 7-7-J-K is unlikely as it neither keeps the pegging cards nor the chances of 15-2 wth the X cards but I'll examine it anyway:

2-2-J-K: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.92) = 7¾pts

2-2-7-7: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.96) = 8pts

7-7-J-K: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.72) = 7¾pts

Potential:

2-2-J-K: Improves with AAAA, 22, 3333, 5555, JJJ, QQQQ, KKK = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 5/6/10pts with AAAA, 22, 3333, 5555, QQQQ = 18 cuts. Plus 10 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

2-2-7-7: Improves with AAAA, 22, 4444, 6666, 77, 8888 = 20 cuts = 43.5% up to 8/12pts with 22, 4444, 6666, 77, 8888 16 cuts.

7-7-J-K: Improves with AAAA, 5555, 77, 8888, JJJ, QQQQ, KKK = 24 cuts = 52.2% up to 5/6pts with 5555, 77, 8888, QQQQ = 14 cuts. Plus 10 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 10/46 = 0.22pt.

Pegging:

Pegging Offense 2-2-7-7 should peg best with a low pair and a 3-card magic eleven with 2-2-J-K next. But pegging Defense I think all will peg OK.

Position:

We're 4pts past Second street positional hole and we're there first (Pone being 2pts short) so I'll play Defense for the pegging.

Summary:

7-7-J-K has less cuts for 5/6pts compared to 2-2-J-K so I think can be eliminated. Although 2-2-7-7 has a better maximum it has 4 less cuts for improvement. 2-2-J-K has 18 cuts for 5-10pts compared to 2-2-7-7 which has 16 cuts for 8-12pts so the potential increase I think is close. 2-2-7-7 has a ¼pt better starting value but this is out-weighed by the extra 0.22pt for his nopb with 2-2-J-K. As 2-2-7-7 loses its pegging efficiency by playing Defense, on balance, I think 2-2-J-K will have the edge.
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HalscribCLX
3096 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 10:39 AM
At 48*-42 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W6 %____W7 %
2-2-J-K___4.30+(-2.13)+5.99=8.16____50.1____44.7
2-2-7-7___5.91+(-2.11)+3.96=7.76____49.4____44.4
7-7-J-K___3.78+(-2.33)+5.63=7.08____47.1____41.3

Defense______L6 %____L7 %
2-2-J-K______39.9____38.0
2-2-7-7______39.5____38.4
7-7-J-K______41.1____40.9

2-2-J-K is 0.40pt best for expected averages and slightly best for Win %s and Loss %s both of which take account of the board position. So I'll select 7-7 to discard.

After the A cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
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Ras2829
2888 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 11:18 AM
Rosemarie44, the first to post this day sized it up just right. If position was reversed (42*-48), strategy would be offense and 2-2-7-7 would be retained. Here we are already beyond 2nd street CPZ (43-47); so we make the defensive choice and play off the lead. It's so important to choose strategy at time of retention/discard and then modify as appropriate if starter card is advantageous to hand and or discard. If starter card had been a trey, 7, or 8, would have shifted a gear into optimal. Still would be a bit shy of all out offense given opponent is sitting at hole 42.
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