January 10, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Gougie00
70*-85  ?
44%
27%
15%
6%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 193

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dec
4013 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 3:03 AM
Live by the sword.. Quuen lead dec
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BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016

   
Wednesday 3:18 AM
By playing it this way the crib is an extension of my hand. hitting a five - two -three or all the X cards.
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Rosemarie44
799 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Wednesday 4:14 AM
Way to go Gougie00! Keep the four points in the hand and pray that a cut of a Ten, Queen, 5, or J for 8/12/16 points.
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glmccuskey
2617 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Wednesday 5:35 AM
I wanted the connectors in the crib.
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james500
1739 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Wednesday 5:37 AM
With so many pegging traps designed to take advantage of hands comprised solely of X's and/or 5's, I'd like to keep hold of the 9 here. I'll obviously keep the two 10's to go with it, leaving me a choice between Q-Q and Q-K to discard. I'm not too enthusiastic about either, but two points are two points, so I wont split the pair of ladies.
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Gougie00
3485 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Wednesday 6:23 AM
Dont you hate hands like this? The urge is to hold 10-10-Q-Q and go for the Jack. That would mean K-9 to my crib. I dont see any obvious solutions.

January thaw is upon us and the next 3 days will bring temperature in the 50s. The only problem with that is too much, too fast and I'll have an inch of melt water in the basement.
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Inushtuk1
522 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Wednesday 8:14 AM
Yes, I sure do hate hands like this. It’s like juggling cinder blocks, right Greg? But I got to keep the chance for the 16 hand. I’m sure the expected averages are better this way. Jams is right about all the pegging traps. But hey; look on the bright side. At least we don’t have to worry about the 4-6-6, or 4-6 five card trap, and giving up 6 points on the second play series. Hopefully Pone has the rather harmless 2-2-7, or A-3-7 three card “Magic Eleven” if s/he has any at all. These usually end up with us giving up only 2 pegging points. Pone pegs 2.1 points anyway. What we *really* have to worry about, is a Pone with those pretty 2-3-6, and A-4-6 three-card ”magic Elevens”. If Pone plays his/her cards right, they score the first four pegging holes. And if they hold A-4-5-6. It’s 6 pegging holes. The same is true of 2-3-5-6. Thankfully that latter hand is not a common keep. So yes, in this defensive position, there definitely is some danger. But I don’t see any other way out.
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JQT
2239 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Wednesday 9:18 AM
Oh my, what a tangled web we hath done been weaved into!

Should we stuff Toss (9 K), or Toss (Q Q), or even Toss (T T) ... or JUST WHAT into our Crib today?

Search me, I have no idea. But lo and behold, I'm afraid I'm about to come up with one.

At a score of (70*-85), we are the Current Dealer, and we trail by Fifteen Holes. And to this, you might rightly say, "Okay, Einstein, you've looked at our score, so what are you going to do about it?"

If we make the assumption that Halscrib is generally providing the 'correct' answer each day, I've been wrong twice-in-a-row now, so who are you going to believe ... me, or some computer that's hardly ever wrong?

However, I think I still do enjoy a small, but very loyal following, here on the "Daily Cribbage Hand," so let me venture a guess. And if you promise not to laugh, let me call it an "educated" guess. I detect copious amounts of laughter. That's not nice.

Dealing from Hole 70 is right-on-par as far as the Third Street Positional Target is concerned, so as the Dealer, we got that going for us here. The problem with this assessment however, is that Pone now sits just Eleven Holes shy of the NEXT (or Fourth Street) Positional Par Hole. This means, we are (give or take one hole), possibly a FULL CYCLE behind our Opponent! i.e., we're currently getting our collective clock cleaned!

But does this definitively mean that we MUST reach-for-the-stars and Keep (T T Q Q) and Toss (9 K)? I certainly hope NOT, because Toss (9 K) looks like the makings of a poisonous Crib! But "reaching for that inside Double-Double" for Sixteen Points is a thing here.

Rather, I think what this means is we must choose between Toss (9 T) and Toss (Q Q), which allows for that 'synergy' that I'm always blabbing on, and on, and on about. Which one of these discards will help us the most today?

Throwing the PAIR of Queens not only allows us to retain the better Hand, but it *should* yield a better Crib for us than Toss (9 T). At least, that's what the "unadulterated" numbers would try to tell us ... that is, if we didn't first attempt to factor in the "Intrinsic Points" from the Queen PAIR!

And the computer will probably "swallow" the Toss (Q Q) poison, and drink the proverbial Kool-Aid, and my guess it shall continue to proceed: hook, line, and sinker. But I'm simply NOT buying it!

The fact is, as long as those two "Ladies" stay together (whether in our Hand or Crib), they shall produce (with certainty) those 'perfunctory' (how's that for a new word today?) Two Points for the PAIR, whether they reside in our Hand, or in our Crib.

And it is for this reason why I am inclined to 'look the other way' and 'lean' towards Toss (9 T) here. Do you see my somewhat-contorted, albeit concrete, logic?

I feel like I am climbing way out on a limb today, but those who find themselves on thin ice in life are sometimes best advised to "dance." So let's "dance as fast as we can" to the 'tune' of Keep (T Q Q K) and Toss (9 T).

After all, we're probably going to lose this-here game today, and so unless we can 'hit' our Cut, it stands to reason that we're simply trying to avoid a one-way ticket on The Last Train to SKUNK-ville!

And if those "men in white coats" come 'round asking questions, what-say ... we can always say we're doing something else.
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spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Wednesday 10:16 AM
I am averse to tossing 9 K to my crib. It's brutal enough when tossing it to competitor. We are in deep doo-doo here with pone at 85 especially after that 3 starter. My first job is to keep opponent from going out "on time" so even though I'm short will not take any chances in the pegging.
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Coeurdelion
3433 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 11:16 AM
Do we keep the chance of the quadruple-run or a double-run?:

10-10-Q-Q: 4pts + 3pts (Schell: 3.06) = 7pts

9-10-10-Q: 2pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.46) = 5½pts

9-10-10-K: 2pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.79) = 6¾pts

10-Q-Q-K: 2pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.29) = 6¼pts

9-Q-Q-K: 2pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.76) = 6¾pts

Potential:

10-10-Q-Q: Improves with 5555, 1010, JJJJ, QQ = 12 cuts = 12/46 = 26.1% up to 8/12/16pts with all cuts.

9-10-10-Q: Improves with 5555, 6666, 8888, 999, 1010, JJJJ, QQ = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 6/8/10pts with 5555, 8888, 1010, JJJJ = 14 cuts.

9-10-10-K: Improves with 5555, 6666, 8888, 999, 1010, JJJJ, KKK = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 6/8/10pts with 5555, 8888, 1010, JJJJ = 14 cuts.

10-Q-Q-K: Improves with 5555, 1010, JJJJ, QQ, KKK = 15 cuts = 15/46 = 32.6% up to 6/10pts with 5555, JJJJ, QQ = 10 cuts.

9-Q-Q-K: Improves with 5555, 999, JJJJ, QQ, KKK = 16 cuts = 16/46 = 34.8% up to 6/10pts with 5555, JJJJ, QQ = 10 cuts.

Pegging:

I think all these hands will peg similarly.

Position:

We're at Third street positional hole but Pone is only 11pts short of 96pts. We have the edge so I'll play Defense.

Summary:

9-10-10-K has the most cuts for improvement and 14 cuts for 6-10pts. 10-10-Q-Q has the least number of cuts for improvement but all the cuts are for 8-16pts. It also starts with ¼pt-1½pt more and playing Defense with two pairs should peg slightly better. So I'll throw 9-K and try for the 16pts.
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HalscribCLX
3192 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Wednesday 12:27 PM
At 70*-85 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense____Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W3 %___W4 %
10-10-Q-Q__6.09+(-2.70)+3.10=6.49____5.1____14.9
9-10-10-K__4.17+(-2.28)+4.51=6.40____3.6____13.0
9-Q-Q-K____3.65+(-2.26)+4.57=5.96____3.2____12.4
10-Q-Q-K___3.78+(-2.61)+4.27=5.44____3.6____12.4
9-10-10-QD_4.30+(-2.30)+3.36=5.36____3.0____11.3

Defense_______L3 %___L4 %
10-10-Q-Q_____43.5___78.7
9-10-10-K_____46.2___81.7
9-Q-Q-K_______44.8___82.1
10-Q-Q-K______45.4___82.0
9-10-10-QD____46.7___83.7

10-10-Q-Q is 0.09pt best for expected averages over 9-10-10-K and it is appreciably best for Win %s and Loss %s both of which take account of the board position. So I'll select 9-K to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

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JRCeagle78
423 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Wednesday 1:17 PM
I'll split the pairs and try for the open-ended double run. I will undoubtedly lose this game, it is just by how much that needs to be determined.

When I get hands like this, they usually occur in bunches and I fall further and further behind, This is the perfect opportunity for the pone to discard K-4.
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Ras2829
2974 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 2:06 PM
With opponent 15 holes down the board, will go for the cut of the Jack and the sixteen-point hand. Cards alike often also provide the best defense in pegging sequences as pointed out by others. So it's def., def., def. for me. Would pair a ten spot or Queen and take a 15-2 on a five lead. Otherwise would play off as much as possible. HalscribCLX computes that we have a 20% chance to win over the next two deals (5.1 +14.9). Does that really mean 20%? My experience suggest I'll win about 1/10 this far back with opponent needing 10 points to reach 4th street CPZ (95-99) for upcoming deal.
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