January 11, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
0*-0  ?
62%
18%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 187

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JQT
2156 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Thursday 3:05 AM
I am tempted to investigate the Hybrid Solution of Toss (5 K) here, and do so instead of the perhaps more obvious Toss (6 9), a discard I generally don't like to make to my Own Crib.

But in the end, the PAIR of 5 Cards seems too powerful to be split up.

What's important however is not to be 'lured into' retaining Keep (5 5 6 K) in the hopes of Cutting a 4 Card or 7 Card, as it is simply "reaching too far" to expect Toss (A 9) to help our Crib.
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dec
3884 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Thursday 3:08 AM
Give up two in the crib to start to have a chance to nail sixteen. Seventeen X-5s in the deck. Not a strong eleven count for defense but probably end up playing off and/or not trip a five after a twenty for two. dec
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joekayak
337 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Thursday 3:45 AM
First to deal. Take the sure points. If an X card gets cut, I am almost certain to get to or beyond my first CPZ easily this hand but surely the next. No need to go for the low percentage 4 or 7 cut at this position.
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Andy (muesli64)
1338 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Thursday 4:04 AM
Threw 6-9. More points. I expect Ras wants to see the 5-K thrown?!!
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Rosemarie44
715 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Thursday 4:11 AM
Well I am in the majority. This hand has more potential for 10/12/14 points by tossing 6-9.
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glmccuskey
2524 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Thursday 4:55 AM
Iíll go against the majority this morning. To much up side with the 5-5-6 together in your hand. Itís also a good pegger as dealer.
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Jazzselke
912 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Thursday 4:58 AM
Not sure of the catch here by that sneaky Ras. Maybe 5K as mentioned, but I have no problem with 69 for 2 more combined points.
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james500
1653 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Thursday 5:35 AM
Is K-5 or 5d-6d worth considering? I'll try the latter.
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spin121
284 votes

Joined: March 2016

Thursday 5:46 AM
Prefer to hold guaranteed 9 pts instead of only the 7 in this position. A bird in hand worth two in bush.
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BigFoot Bob
620 votes

Joined: April 2016

   
Thursday 6:48 AM
And the worm turns.
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Inushtuk1
446 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Thursday 8:17 AM
Iím sure thereís a time and a place for (5-K). But not here. I think Rasís lesson today is exactly what JQT said. Donít be lured by the 5-5-6-K(A-9). With 15 known points itís def., def., def. That means avoiding the low-hanging fruit on an X-card lead. If our 5h is paired we will be sorely tempted to go for the triple, and that could be disasterous. Why tempt fate. Iím dumping my Ace on a K, Q, or J lead; and my K on a 10 lead.
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King Richard
2696 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Thursday 8:33 AM
The King is not going for the head fake here. Just keep the points and get this game rolling. But, the King does want to hear from the RAS master - K-5?
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wasa
769 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Thursday 8:33 AM
First thought was 6-9, but because puzzle from RAS figured I'd think about 5-K or 5-5 but I just don't see it so 6-9 it is.
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Coeurdelion
3348 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Thursday 10:52 AM
I think its between A-5-5-K (6-9), A-5-6-9 (5-K) and perhaps A-5-9-K (5-6) is worth a look:

A-5-5-K: 6pts + 5ľpts (Schell: 5.13) = 11ľpts

A-5-6-9: 4pts + 6Ĺpts (Schell: 6.66) = 10Ĺpts

A-5-9-K: 4pts + 6Ĺpts (Schell: 6.63) = 10Ĺpts

Potential:

A-5-5-K: Improves with AAA, 4444, 55, 999 + 15xXs = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 10/12/14pts with 4444, 55, 999 + 15xXs = 24 cuts.

A-5-6-9: Improves with AAA, 3333, 4444, 55, 666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 7/8/9/10pts with AAA, 4444, 55, 666, 7777, 999 = 19 cuts.

A-5-9-K: Improves with AAA, 4444, 55, 666, 999 + 15xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 8/10pts with AAA, 55, 999, KKK = 11 cuts.

Pegging:

I think both A-5-6-9 and A-5-6-K will peg slightly better than A-5-5-K.

Position:

As First Dealer we'll be playing Defense and hoping to reach 16pts or more.

Summary:

Both A-5-6-9 and A-5-6-K have the same starting value but A-5-6-9 has much better potential with more cuts for improvement and more cuts for an average to good hand. A-5-5-K has many fewer cuts for improvement than A-5-6-9 and it has 24 cuts for a good hand of 10-14pts and it also starts with ĺpt more. So despite the fact that A-5-6-9 may peg slightly better I'll consolidate my position and start with a guaranteed 9pts (6pts+2pts+1pt) and throw 6-9.
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Gougie00
3394 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Thursday 11:24 AM
The biggest bang for the buck
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HalscribCLX
3096 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Thursday 11:30 AM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W9 %____W10 %
A-5-5-K___8.52+(-1.83)+5.01=11.70____41.3____54.0
A-5-6-9___6.78+(-2.04)+6.47=11.21____41.4____53.8
A-5K-9-K__5.87+(-1.89)+6.57=10.55____37.9____51.2
5-5-6-K___9.43+(-2.11)+3.17=10.49____39.0____51.6

Defense_______L9 %____L10 %
A-5-5-K_______25.6____21.1
A-5-6-9_______26.6____21.6
A-5K-9-K______25.8____23.4
5-5-6-K_______26.1____23.0

A-5-5-K is best for expected averages by 0.49pt and is very slightly best for Win %s and Loss %s both of which take account of the board position. So I'll select 6-9 to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
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HalscribCLX
3096 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Thursday 11:48 AM
If we were to adopt an Optimal or Offense strategy:

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total
A-5-6-9___6.78+1.67+6.47=14.92
A-5-5-K___8.52+1.13+5.01=14.67
5-5-6-K___9.43+1.33+3.17=13.93
A-5K-9-K__5.87+1.07+6.57=13.51

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total
A-5-6-9___6.78+3.72+6.47=16.97
A-5-5-K___8.52+2.96+5.01=16.49
5-5-6-K___9.43+3.43+3.17=16.03
A-5K-9-K__5.87+1.07+2.96=15.35

I am, however, recommending a Defense strategy where Pone's pegging is minimized.
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Ras2829
2888 votes

Joined: November 2008

Thursday 2:36 PM
The reason for submitting this puzzle is clearly delineated by HalcribCLX above. For decades I played this hand or similar as A-5-5-X with 6-9 discard and believed that was correct most any place on the board. Queries on Halscrib, REX, and Cribbage Prof showed that 5-X was often the correct choice. Since first hand of game, dealer choice should be defense; so the majority have it just right. How would it have been if the hand had been A-5-5-6-9-J?
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Ras2829
2888 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Thursday 2:38 PM
A picture is worth a 1,000 words!!
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