Thursday 3:05 AM

I am tempted to investigate the Hybrid Solution of Toss (5 K) here, and do so instead of the perhaps more obvious Toss (6 9), a discard I generally don't like to make to my Own Crib.

But in the end, the PAIR of 5 Cards seems too powerful to be split up.

What's important however is not to be 'lured into' retaining Keep (5 5 6 K) in the hopes of Cutting a 4 Card or 7 Card, as it is simply "reaching too far" to expect Toss (A 9) to help our Crib.

   

Thursday 3:08 AM

Give up two in the crib to start to have a chance to nail sixteen. Seventeen X-5s in the deck. Not a strong eleven count for defense but probably end up playing off and/or not trip a five after a twenty for two. dec

   

Thursday 3:45 AM

First to deal. Take the sure points. If an X card gets cut, I am almost certain to get to or beyond my first CPZ easily this hand but surely the next. No need to go for the low percentage 4 or 7 cut at this position.

   

Thursday 4:04 AM

Threw 6-9. More points. I expect Ras wants to see the 5-K thrown?!!

   

Thursday 4:11 AM

Well I am in the majority. This hand has more potential for 10/12/14 points by tossing 6-9.

   

Thursday 4:55 AM

I’ll go against the majority this morning. To much up side with the 5-5-6 together in your hand. It’s also a good pegger as dealer.

   

Thursday 4:58 AM

Not sure of the catch here by that sneaky Ras. Maybe 5K as mentioned, but I have no problem with 69 for 2 more combined points.

   

Thursday 5:35 AM

Is K-5 or 5d-6d worth considering? I'll try the latter.

Thursday 5:46 AM

Prefer to hold guaranteed 9 pts instead of only the 7 in this position. A bird in hand worth two in bush.

   

Thursday 6:48 AM

And the worm turns.

   

Thursday 8:17 AM

I’m sure there’s a time and a place for (5-K). But not here. I think Ras’s lesson today is exactly what JQT said. Don’t be lured by the 5-5-6-K(A-9). With 15 known points it’s def., def., def. That means avoiding the low-hanging fruit on an X-card lead. If our 5h is paired we will be sorely tempted to go for the triple, and that could be disasterous. Why tempt fate. I’m dumping my Ace on a K, Q, or J lead; and my K on a 10 lead.

   

Thursday 8:33 AM

The King is not going for the head fake here. Just keep the points and get this game rolling. But, the King does want to hear from the RAS master - K-5?

   

Thursday 8:33 AM

First thought was 6-9, but because puzzle from RAS figured I'd think about 5-K or 5-5 but I just don't see it so 6-9 it is.

   

Thursday 10:52 AM

I think its between A-5-5-K (6-9), A-5-6-9 (5-K) and perhaps A-5-9-K (5-6) is worth a look:

A-5-5-K: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 11¼pts

A-5-6-9: 4pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.66) = 10½pts

A-5-9-K: 4pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 10½pts

Potential:

A-5-5-K: Improves with AAA, 4444, 55, 999 + 15xXs = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 10/12/14pts with 4444, 55, 999 + 15xXs = 24 cuts.

A-5-6-9: Improves with AAA, 3333, 4444, 55, 666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 7/8/9/10pts with AAA, 4444, 55, 666, 7777, 999 = 19 cuts.

A-5-9-K: Improves with AAA, 4444, 55, 666, 999 + 15xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 8/10pts with AAA, 55, 999, KKK = 11 cuts.

Pegging:

I think both A-5-6-9 and A-5-6-K will peg slightly better than A-5-5-K.

Position:

As First Dealer we'll be playing Defense and hoping to reach 16pts or more.

Summary:

Both A-5-6-9 and A-5-6-K have the same starting value but A-5-6-9 has much better potential with more cuts for improvement and more cuts for an average to good hand. A-5-5-K has many fewer cuts for improvement than A-5-6-9 and it has 24 cuts for a good hand of 10-14pts and it also starts with ¾pt more. So despite the fact that A-5-6-9 may peg slightly better I'll consolidate my position and start with a guaranteed 9pts (6pts+2pts+1pt) and throw 6-9.

   

Thursday 11:24 AM

The biggest bang for the buck

   

Thursday 11:30 AM

At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W9 %____W10 %
A-5-5-K___8.52+(-1.83)+5.01=11.70____41.3____54.0
A-5-6-9___6.78+(-2.04)+6.47=11.21____41.4____53.8
A-5K-9-K__5.87+(-1.89)+6.57=10.55____37.9____51.2
5-5-6-K___9.43+(-2.11)+3.17=10.49____39.0____51.6

Defense_______L9 %____L10 %
A-5-5-K_______25.6____21.1
A-5-6-9_______26.6____21.6
A-5K-9-K______25.8____23.4
5-5-6-K_______26.1____23.0

A-5-5-K is best for expected averages by 0.49pt and is very slightly best for Win %s and Loss %s both of which take account of the board position. So I'll select 6-9 to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

   

Thursday 11:48 AM

If we were to adopt an Optimal or Offense strategy:

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total
A-5-6-9___6.78+1.67+6.47=14.92
A-5-5-K___8.52+1.13+5.01=14.67
5-5-6-K___9.43+1.33+3.17=13.93
A-5K-9-K__5.87+1.07+6.57=13.51

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total
A-5-6-9___6.78+3.72+6.47=16.97
A-5-5-K___8.52+2.96+5.01=16.49
5-5-6-K___9.43+3.43+3.17=16.03
A-5K-9-K__5.87+1.07+2.96=15.35

I am, however, recommending a Defense strategy where Pone's pegging is minimized.

   

Thursday 2:36 PM

The reason for submitting this puzzle is clearly delineated by HalcribCLX above. For decades I played this hand or similar as A-5-5-X with 6-9 discard and believed that was correct most any place on the board. Queries on Halscrib, REX, and Cribbage Prof showed that 5-X was often the correct choice. Since first hand of game, dealer choice should be defense; so the majority have it just right. How would it have been if the hand had been A-5-5-6-9-J?

   

Thursday 2:38 PM

A picture is worth a 1,000 words!!