January 13, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by jqt
106-103*  ?
35%
33%
18%
5%
2%
2%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 133
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 3:18 AM
We can toss A-9 or A-A to dealer. the lowest two cards are the A-9 (4.34 points). Allowing the dealer one point, the odds of the dealer scoring 17 more points is 2-1. The odds of non-dealer scoring 15 points is 7-1. With the starter card we now have 7 points. As non dealer we average 2 points in the pegging and are now up to 9 points.
Now what?
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 3:33 AM
Hope to cut a 4,5 or Jack.

I'll lead a Jack to give me an option with my 2nd card, and I choose the Jack of clubs to match my Ace.
BigFoot Bob
624 votes

Joined: April 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 4:05 AM
Looking for a cut of 4-5 or J. with dealer counting first next round. . . . .this is a position is difficult. Swinging for the bleachers.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi BigFoot Bob. Respectfully, swinging for the bleachers would be keeping 9-J-J-J. I’m not saying that’s the right thing to do here. But that’s *really* swinging for the fences, or bleachers if you will.
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 4:43 AM
The good news might be its still a face card cut our opponent might not travel far. Going for a 10-5 or another Jack seems risky even with a game hole chance. Jack of clubs lead. dec
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 4:49 AM
As above but JQT must be looking for the A-A throw? But I think not that desperate - dealer will not get out this deal more often than not.
cribbage in the counties
122 votes

Joined: April 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 6:04 AM
4 10s available to give you 8 points

4 4s available to give you 12

Need 15 for the win before pone gets 3 takes.

I go for the win
james500 says: Hiya Siv. I seem to remember reading in this last Cribbage World magazine, you will/have already set up a website for UK resident cribbage players. Can you refresh my memory, as I'd be interested in taking a look.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi cribbage in the counties. “4 10s available to give you 8 points.” I only see 4 points; 5 if they are black. I see this as a poor third choice today. It’s a better pegger though.
Inushtuk1
1481 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 9:43 AM
I think what’s important here is not to lose sight of the fact that while *only* the 9-J-J-J(A-A) allows us to go out *this* hand; it has only 3 cuts, (4s,4c,4h) that put us within 2 holes. And 2 pegging holes is our average. The safer A-J-J-J(A-9) gives us 6 cuts, (4s,4c,4h,5s,5c,5h) that do the same. Not that it will be easy to peg the average number of holes with either of these keeps. Perhaps that’s why some chose to keep A-A-J-J. But I’d rather start with 6 today. My chances of winning are lower but my chances of not losing are much better this way. Having 100% more cuts that put me at hole 119 give me almost as much chance of going out without tossing the risky (A-A). That small pair could easily put the Dealer out with his crib showing. Leading my Jc, with the Ac likely to be my next card.
Inushtuk1 says: “Leading the Jc, with the Ac likely to be my next card.” In the words of Dr. Phil, “What were you *thinking*?” I certainly won’t win this game playing defense now. In fact, on most leads the best thing to do is show another J, and hope to catch a stray Ace. Only on the response of a 5, 4, or an Ace should I dump my lone Ace. In all other cases there is a chance I may catch a stray Ace later by showing the Dealer the same card. Of course my Ace could be trapped as well. Welcome to cribbage.
Gougie00
5724 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 12:25 PM
JJJ and what else? Do I feel like a 4,5 or 10 will be cut? I kept the ace just incase I need a 31 for 2.

Queen doesnt help. Lead the Jack. Smile politely.
spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 12:45 PM
Q cut ? Time to slam my cards down swoosh the crib board off the table and storm out of the room!
spin121 says: or not
Ras2829
5147 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 4:44 PM
The chances of turning a 10-10-10-10 (4) and know that we are out with first count is 1/11.5. Chances of dealer scoring 18 is 1/3. So think it wise to look at getting close as by holding A-J-J-J we have 4-4-4-4 (4), 5-5-5-5 (4), and that remaining Jack (1) which will give us 12 or 13 points without regards to any pegs gained. Very difficult to expect to peg with these cards as we have little variety. After seeing the starter card and knowing that total score of hand is 7 points, do as Inushtuk1 suggests. Can't really play defense now; so take any pegs offered.
Ras2829 says: Am sorry it's 3-1 against dealer scoring 18 points on this hand. That means dealer actually has 1 chance in four to win game on this deal. The real problem becomes my 7 points and no variety with which to peg. So little chance that I will win game by pegging out next time as dealer. Just have to get as close as possible here. If not a win, can reduce the spread points.