January 20, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
113-117*  ?
53%
15%
10%
7%
4%
3%
2%
2%
0%
Total votes: 131
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Saturday 3:08 AM
I don't see how we are going to come up with 8 points, hand and peg while dealer (gets 1 point automatic) and needs only 3 points to go out. The average expected hand is only 5 points with a maximum of 4-8 points based on 12 cuts (5555, 666, 999, KK). I had my coffee and things haven't changed!
JQT
4137 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 3:20 AM
Desperate Times ... Desperate Measures, Folks!

We need Eight Points as Pone. And we cannot give up more than Three Holes in the process. Other than that, at a score of (113-117*), things are just spiffy. Fine and Dandy, even, if you'll allow me to continue the lie.

Rosemarie44 is exactly 'on target' this early, windy morning. Let's examine this nasty thing Andy has concocted for us.

If we Keep (6 7 9 X), then about Fourteen Cuts (5555, 666, 8888, 999) help us, but greater than half of those (or about Ten of those Fourteen Cuts, to be precise) only get us around Six or Seven Points.

If we Keep (? Q K K), then about Ten Cuts (5555, JJJJ, KK) help us, and while only Two of these Ten Cuts (KK) leave us a bit shy of our goal, a Jack Cut has the awful distinction here of putting our Dealer Opponent at Hole 119 prior to the Pegging Battle proper! OMG ... it's a 'wolf' in wolf's clothing!

Cutting a Jack here is probably therefore tantamount to losing, since we're likely to give up more than just the One Point Minimum while pegging, especially while holding such horrible cards!

In fact, having been dealt no Jacks, the odds that we shall Cut a Jack are exactly 4 DIV 46 equals 0.087 or around 9%. This means we have almost a 10% chance that we'll lose simply by cutting a card that we might otherwise have thought could actually help us! Therefore, pay heed, and only venture down *this* dead-end road at your Own Risk!

If we Keep (6 9 K K) however, then precisely Twelve Cuts (5555, 666, 999, KK) help us, and ALL of these actually seem to WORK. Great Scott, I think we've found it!

Therefore, I shall go with the mysterious 'Solid Dozen' and Keep (6 9 K K) and Toss (7 Q) today. After the Queen Cut, we should maybe throw a proper temper tantrum, and then go about leading our King. Nobody said Cribbage was easy...

So many things will defeat us today: a Jack Cut all but does it; if the Dealer holds a low-ranking PAIR, that probably does it, too. But ... nevertheless ... we do have a small chance to 'shine' and prevail here.

And yet the only way to steer toward that 'glimmer of a light' is to Toss (7 Q) and then NOT get discouraged!
dec
6328 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 3:34 AM
One of my peeves especially on fourth street . Lets see twelve cuts your in needing some precision pegging here. I do look at alternatives here so that would be 6-7-9-Q not great peggers , four cuts get you in , ten cuts gets you one or two short. I will go with the first choice might get that cut or get lucky with the pegging. dec
Gougie00
5703 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 5:20 AM
The cribbage fairy is off her meds again.
LoneStarPegger
811 votes

Joined: January 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 5:21 AM
Move one seat to the right...
Guest says: Only 19 at tonight's game which means a sit out
Inushtuk1 says: Hi LoneStarPegger. I’m not fortunate enough to have an ACC Grass Roots Club near me. I do get to play once every two weeks from mid-October to mid-April. That’s 14 sessions a year. And there’s always a couple of snowstorm cancellations. Nineteen at our club would be a record attendance. Good luck tonight.
Gougie00 says: Start your own club. trente et un pour deux.
Inushtuk1 says: I’m slowly working on it. I suppose people would rather play hockey. I just thought I’d add that in before you did. ; - )
Andy (muesli64)
2221 votes

Joined: August 2009

Saturday 6:15 AM
Can't remember now why I proposed this one!!
Gougie00 says: Off your meds?
Guest says: Take two and call me in the morning
Ras2829 says: Hi Andy: Noticed this puzzle as a moderator and did not delete it as have noted many players in live games who will not hold a hand that looks like this one or 9-9-Q-Q, 6-6-K-K, 8-8-Q-Q, or similar. Even those these strange looking combinations have the best chance to score 8 points, they'll opt for something else that has far fewer cuts for the 8 points. So think the puzzle has value for some.
spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Saturday 6:54 AM
Can't change a Volkswagen into a Ferrari by exchanging two parts. Probably going to lose but still have a small chance for the win.
james500
3896 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Saturday 7:20 AM
Can't really add anything, it's all been said already.
Inushtuk1
1465 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Saturday 8:23 AM
JQT said everything that needs to be said. I’ll lead my 6. Dealer won’t pair that K lead. S/he *might* play a 9 on the 6 lead, and try to peg out that way. Either way we’ve probably only got a 30% chance at best to win this game. Hoping to move one seat to the right with either a stolen win. or a big fat zero with a -01 beside it.
Guest says: Ok....I am way out of the majority here. I held 6-7-9-Q in hopes of cutting a 5 or an 8 to have enough, or a 6 and 9 to get some help. Enlighten me because I don't see how holding a lousy pegging hand is helpful. S :)
Guest says: How to mark an ACC scorecard correctly that 01 would be in the third column. dec
Inushtuk1 says: Hi dec. Never argue with a man when he’s right. If you could only see me wiping the egg off my face right now.
Inushtuk1 says: Hello the mysterious S; friend of Gary and Dan Selke. We’re keeping this horrible pegging hand because it has 12 ‘outs’. Your keep; although *sligtly* better for pegging, has only 4 ‘outs.’ Those being (8888). May I suggest you reread JQT’s post. Excuse me while I go back to practicing my ACC scorecard marking. ; - )
Guest says: lol....I have my red pen right here! S:)
Coeurdelion says: Hi S:) The Win % of 6-7-9-Q is nearly as much as 6-9-K-K according to HalscribCLX which I think is because of the lower cuts for 6pts and 7pts with some pegging. Unfortunately according to Halscrib 6-7-9-Q allows Dealer to Peg Out a lot more frequently than 6-9-K-K 8-(
Guest says: Thanks both :)
Inushtuk1 says: Excellent point by Coeurdelion, S
horus93
1273 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Saturday 12:40 PM
6-7-k-k improves on more cuts but we really need at least six, preferably seven or eight points in hand. The odds of getting 6+ points with that hand are around 21.7% by my count, but with this hand it's 26%, and all of the helpful cuts (5555,666,999,kk) bring us to 8 points, which is obv ideal.

6-7-k-k is probably a better offensive pegging hand but a competent opponent isn't going to let us get away with much at this score. I would want to avoid landing in a position where I need to pick up points in play all the more considering dealer could easily peg out himself this hand.
Ras2829
5126 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 2:01 PM
It's been said. Keep the cards that give you most cuts for 8 points and lead the six as dealer will not pair a King lead and is likely to retain a 5 spot to score on any X-point lead. If not having four good pegging cards, dealer will sometimes keep a King believing it will be a safe card if needed. So hold the pair until last pegging sequence and try not to split them in the first pegging series.
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Saturday 2:24 PM
The two hands I think with most cuts for 6/7/8pts are:

6-9-K-K: Improves to 8pts with 5555, 666, 999, KK = 12 cuts.

6-7-9-Q: Improves to 6/7/8pts with 5555, 666, 8888, 999 = 14 cuts

I think I'll keep 6-9-K-K for 4pts and I think the pair with the 6-9 will reduce the chance of Dealer pegging out.
JQT says: As RAS mentions today, I think this puzzle was well-worth having been posted, because it contains a lot of subtleties and nuance that are germane to Cribbage Endgame Battles. I try to be comprehensive in my entries, but Coeurdelion mentions a vital facet about today's puzzle that I didn't address, at least not directly, and that's that in spite of our awkward position, if we are successful in getting a desired Cut today, this is primarily a defensive pegging challenge. In many other puzzles in which Pone requires a certain number of holes in order to meet some specific goal, I am often content to choose a slightly weaker hand, one that perhaps has better pegging prospects, and in doing so thus hope to peg our "average" Two Points or thereabouts to make up the difference. But not here; not with our Dealer Opponent at Hole 117! This is why Keep (6 9 K K) with its 12 Cuts that 'deliver the goods' is better than Keep (6 7 9 X) with its 14 Cuts that seemingly 'might get the job done' just as well, as it delivers at least Six Points of those Eight Points needed. So why not choose the "better pegging cards" and retain that latter hand choice, as proposed by a few players today, indeed? Again, it's as Coeurdelion tells us: "I think the pair with the 6-9 will reduce the chance of Dealer pegging out" as he once again reminds us that, after all is said and done (meaning: after we hopefully do get that helpful Cut), that this remains primarily a *defensive* pegging struggle! Of course, once we 'miss' our Cut, we need to resort to offensive pegging, purely out of desperation, but I think we're *still* better off with Keep (6 9 K K) here, because while now we need to peg Four Holes, we also continue to be haunted by the fact that a Dealer at Hole 117 *still* has a very high likelihood of pegging out!
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 2:43 PM
At 113-117* playing a Bold strategy the Pone Win %s and Dealer Peg Out %s are:

Bold__________Win %_____Dlr Peg Out %
6-9-K-K_______35.2__________37.0
6-7-9-Q_______33.8__________46.6
6-7-9-K_______33.5__________46.3
6-7-K-K_______27.6__________35.8

6-9-K-K has the best chance of Winning and a reasonably low chance of Dealer pegging out. So I'll select 7-Q to discard.

After the Q cut I'll play Offense and lead the 6:

Lead_______Our Peg Pts.___Win %___Loss %
K_______________0.77_________0.1_____76.5
6_______________0.60_________0.0_____69.5
9_______________0.56_________0.0_____72.6

Although the K lead is best for our pegs the 6 lead minimizes the chance of Losing.