Monday 3:24 AM

I will see how off I am by the numbers. I went for the bakers. dec

   

Monday 3:30 AM

I Choose to toss the two nines and start with 4 points in the hand and two points in the crib and the highest expected averages of 6.20 points (hand) plus crib of 5.21 points. We are relatively short by 4 points and pone is relatively short by 1 point. Optimal strategy?

   

Monday 3:54 AM

Tempted by J-5, but I'll start with 4+2=6 points as per my understanding of Ras' "Small hand rule". Hopenosis resisted for two days running now.

Congratulations to any Patriots or Eagles fans using this site, commiserations to any fans of the Jaguars or Vikings.

   

Monday 4:35 AM

Congratulations to RAS, winner of the Portland consolation yesterday!

   

Monday 4:40 AM

I will hold the combined 6 points, not on desperation mode yet.

   

Monday 5:33 AM

Not crazy about 99 in my crib, But I'll try it this way. Peg where possible.

   

Monday 7:13 AM

I’m not crazy about 99 in my crib either. Someone said recently that often a pair is only two points in the crib and touchers are worth eight.

The cut only gives me 6 in my hand and does not match the crib. Taking any pegs offered.

   

Monday 8:14 AM

I'm looking for a 7 or 10 cut and preferably a 10 cut to go with my 5 k toss. If I wasn't a tad short here might toss the 9s. It's a mad rush to the finish line even though missed my cut. Too late for defense so all out offense.

   

Monday 8:21 AM

Score was close, gambled two points for a golden cut. I know the pone put a couple of tens in the crib, so I'll be good.

   

Monday 11:40 AM

I took the points I have rather than shoot for the points I don't have. I was tempted to try 8-9 in my crib but decided the more conservative approach.

   

Monday 11:44 AM

We are 4pts short of the positional hole. We can go for a dozen with 5-9-9-J. The alternatives are perhaps discarding 8-9, 9-9 or 5-K hoping for a good crib.

5-9-9-J: 4pts + 3¼pts (Schell: 3.18) = 7¼pts

5-9-J-K: 4pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.72) = 8¾pts

5-8-J-K: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.16) = 9¼pts

8-9-9-J: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.66) = 8½pts

Potential:

5-9-9-J: Improves with AAAA, 555, 6666, 99 + 14xXs = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 8/12pts with AAAA, 555, 6666, 99, 10101010, JJJ = 20 cuts. Plus 11 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

5-9-J-K: Improves with AAAA, 555, 6666, 99 + 14xXs = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 8/9/10pts with 555 + 14xXs = 17 cuts. Plus 11 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

5-8-J-K: Improves with 2222, 555, 7777, 888 + 14xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8/9/10pts with 555, JJJ, QQQQ, KKK = 13 cuts. Plus 11 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

8-9-9-J: Improves with 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 99, 10101010, JJ = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 6/10pts with 6666, 7777, 99, 10101010 = 14 cuts. Plus 11 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Pegging:

I think all the hands with the 5 should peg similarly the 8-9-9-J perhaps not so well.

Position:

We're short of the positional hole so I'll try to pick-up points in the pegging where I can but reasonably safely.

Summary:

5-9-9-J has the best maximum but starts with only 7¼pts. 5-9-J-K starts with 8¾pts and has 17 cuts for 8-10pts. 8-9-9-J starts with 8½pts but only 14 cuts for 6-10pts. 5-8-J-K has the best starting value and one more cut for improvement but only 13 cuts for 8-10pts. I think it may be close but I'll throw 8-9.

   

Monday 12:50 PM

At 66*-69 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
5-8-J-K___6.24+2.83+4.98=14.05____24.4____18.9
5-9-J-K___6.46+2.74+4.67=13.87____24.6____18.8
8-9-9-J___4.54+2.70+6.56=13.80____24.1____19.2
8-9-9-K___4.13+2.67+6.85=13.65____22.3____17.0
5-9-9-J___6.63+2.78+3.14=12.55____19.0____15.7

Offense_______L4 %____L5 %
5-8-J-K_______46.1____64.5
5-9-J-K_______46.1____64.5
8-9-9-J_______45.0____64.1
8-9-9-K_______47.0____66.6
5-9-9-J_______45.4____68.2

5-8-J-K is best for dynamic expected averages over 5-9-J-K and the top three hands are very similar for Win %s and Loss %s so I'll select the 9-9 to discard.

After the A cut I'll play Optimally to the lead (cautious offense).

   

Monday 1:34 PM

Either way, liked the suited 5 J, though more logical to throw K 5.

   

Monday 1:34 PM

Either way, liked the suited 5 J, though more logical to throw K 5.

   

Monday 1:42 PM

I'm not willing to go backwards on a small hand when short of position. Need to be dealing from 3rd street CPZ 69-73. Not there; so will start with six points (four in hand and two in crib). It's off., off., off., for me. Will take any pegs offered though would not pair a five lead since I can score two points with a 15-2. Would like to keep the J-K as the final two cards. It's surprising how frequently the dealer can pick off a lone X-point card in the final pegging sequence. Let it be a Queen that fits right between the J-K.