January 23, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by rob
39-30*  ?
44%
31%
16%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 165
dec
6326 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:32 AM
I believe I can get away with an 8-9 here. Offense. Queen lead. dec
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:56 AM
Tossing 9-Q usually only worth 2 points to dealer. Hand has the highest expected averages.
Jazzselke
2568 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:16 AM
Combination of offense and defense. Would like to hold 6 to get to Hole 46, but that would require a toss of 58, 88 or 89. Opponent is significantly short so I believe we can hold our advantage by seeing the cut card, and then adjust to how we peg, and then how to play the next hand based on our new position.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Dan. I did not mention it in my post, but you ‘5-5-8-8er’s have the famous Langley Trap at your disposal. Not that I’d use it here. You’re already in great shape knowing you will be dealing at Hole 49 at worst.
james500
3894 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:29 AM
I only need a few points to reach my goal, so am tempted by Q-9, rather than to risk 8-8 or 8-9.
I'll go a step further today, (and probably a step too far), and try Q-8c.

All cuts bar a 3 or 4 = 38/46 will improve my hand, although I am starting with 4 fewer points than I would be with 5-5-Q-?, which may well prove to be too much of a sacrifice.

38 cards = 6 lots of 6 cards, plus 2 singles =
38 cards = (6*13%) + (2*2%) =
38 cards = 78% + 4% =
38 cards = 82% of the remaining deck.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 7:09 AM
Q-9 has the best chance of blanking the crib, so that is my choice. 8-9 is just too risky a move at this stage of the game
Gougie00
5701 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 8:01 AM
Nice puzzle. The 55Q is staying put. Not impressed with the flush, so I'll toss unsuited 89. Favorable cut means I shouldnt peg. Lead the Queen? I could be convinced that a 5 lead is favorable.
spin121
299 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 8:05 AM
Good puzzle, so many choices here. If I hadn't gone for the flush would have tossed 9 Q but don't disagree with tossing 8 9. The cut will make us a genius or a dummy.
smugly
387 votes

Joined: August 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 8:27 AM
Can
hold 6 with 8c-9h (touching mids) in dlr's crib, or
hold 4 (sacrificing 2) with 9h-Qh (pretty safe) in dlr's crib, or
hold 6 (flush to peg more?) with 5d-8c (guaranteed 2) in dlr's crib.
I'll chance the touchies to the crib. Lead Q, esp. after 5 cut.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Tuesday 8:35 AM
I was raised (taught) to take the points. I'm always surprised to see how defensive some people play, especially today; early in the game, 9 points ahead. I took the 6 pts in my hand over 4, but then checked . . . 558Q has just over 1 point more than 5588 when comparing statistical averages.
james500 says: Hi. With regard your surprise at the defensiveness of other people, I must confess to "buyer's remorse" this afternoon. I didn't notice the flush prior to voting, but now I am aware of it, I think I'd keep six points that way.
dgergens says: I missed the flush too, I do that A LOT when playing cribbage on the computer, but not when playing live. Even if I had seen it, I still would have kept the two 5's and Q, with no qualms about putting touching cards in the dealer's crib.
horus93
1271 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Tuesday 9:14 AM
+5/-14, going for max points to solidify my advantage.
Inushtuk1 says: HI horus93. I see three ways to keep the max points. Which one did you choose exactly?
horus93 says: By "max points" I meant "highest average value in hand", not "highest maximum hand". I was, however, doing the math by hand, probably made an error there. I tossed 8-9. Running the hand through a program it appears your keep actually has the best average
Inushtuk1
1463 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 10:54 AM
I like the flush today, and I’m approaching the discard from a defensive standpoint, even though horus93 is correct. We are plus 5, and Pone is -14. We could play offense here. The flush will be harder to read, and therefore a better defensive pegging hand. A better offensive pegging hand as well. I’m hoping that will make up for the two points I gave away. The (8-9 has a maximum of 24 in the crib. The (5-8) has a maximum of only 15. of course the (Q-9) has the lowest crib average, and a maximum of only 12 in Dealer’s crib. But look what you’re pegging with - 2 pairs! Not much defensive pegging flexibility there. What you kept from his/her crib, you probably will give back and then some in the play of the hand.

Hey which card has the fewest losers? The Q of course. So I’ll lead that. If Dealer surprises me with the case 5 and (15-2), I won’t bother pairing it. Dealer will most likely play an X-card for (30-1), and maybe even (31-2). I’ll dump my 8 instead for (23). Yes I know it could be a (31-4). But there are only two 8’s left. If I play the 9 for (24), there are four 7’s that could hurt me. Just going by the odds today.
dgergens says: In racquetball parlance, I am in high B player. But clearly there are many A players here that give consideration to a host of additonal variables & details. Given the 39-30 score, could you please explain to me what you mean by we're +5 and Pone is -14? To be fair (to myself), I suspect, just based on hours of playing experience, I subconsciously consider many of the things you guys articulate. But I can see from these discussions why there is room to go from B to A player.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi dgergens. Go the Cribbage Forum website. On the left click on Miscellaneous. Then Mailbag # 5. Halfway down the page you will see a section entitled Board Strategy Questions. What horus93 meant was, we are 5 holes ahead of our positional hole, and the Dealer is 14 holes short. Hoping not to confuse you; but using Ras’s CPZ’s, Dealer is 13 holes short. Ras prefers to look at it as a 5 hole zone rather than a positional hole. And his zone starts one hole further back than Schell’s positional holes. In cribbage parlance I am probably a high C player on the tournament Trail. Btw: I think there is definitely something to what you say about subconsciously considering these things. I believe, from what I have been told, that Phyllis Schmidt is such a player. She may not be able to quote all the crib averages, but just has a natural card sense for board position and what discards work best. But I could be way off here. I’m rather new to this level of play myself. I talk a good game on this website, but in actual practice I usually wind up with a scorecard in the no matter pile.
horus93 says: Ya the history of positional theories is interesting to me. The Received Folk Wisdom, going back to the 5-card game of the 18th century, as witnessed by Pasquin (who knows, maybe back to Suckling himself!) dictates that if you are "at home to the deal", i.e. if you have attained or surpassed your positional hole, you should play defense, and otherwise you should play offense to catch up. This is the same system used by DeLynn Colvert and, as I understand it, Chambers too with some modifications. Schell's system can lead to very different playing styles at certain positions. For him, at the opening both players should play "optimally", for example, while under the "old way" dealer is on defense and pone on offense. And then there are players like you mention with no formal positional theory at all who could still probably peg circles around most of us!
rob
1806 votes

Joined: December 2013

 
 
 
Tuesday 11:06 AM
I opted for the flush, wanting a bit more offense than Q-9 would get me. The real-life cut was a 9, not in hearts. Dealer had tossed 6-7, so he got 9 points. Not great, but at least I didn't toss 8-8 or 8-9! In retrospect, I probably should've tossed Q-9. I did ultimately won the game by 12 holes, but I think that was due more to good hands on the back stretch than to the decision I made here.
rob says: Actually, in looking at the other picks up above, I should've gone with the four 2's. :)
Inushtuk1 says: When in doubt *always* go with the quad deuce flush. That’s my motto. ; - )
Inushtuk1 says: And excellent puzzle by the way.
dgergens says: I was dealt six 6 of hearts once. My opponent had grabbed his son's Magic Trick deck of cards on his way out the door. It was pretty funny.
Ras2829 says: Hi rob: Like your puzzle. Keep em' coming!
Ras2829
5124 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 11:47 AM
Second street CPZ 43-47 is close by for me. Opponent has deal 13 points short. It's off., off., off. Don't want my unsuited 8-9 to score 12 points in crib although it would only be a monster crib that would hurt my position. With fourteen points in hand, will lead a five, tempt the dealer to pair with that five on the deck. I would not choose the flush here as it requires giving up 5-8. The 5-8 averages 6.393(178)over there. Doesn't equate to hold six points in my hand and give up more than six in crib. Although 8-9 is not a favored discard, it averages 5.891 (699). Unlike the 5-8 which will score two or more all of the time, the 8-9 scores two points or less 30.2%. Gotta like those chances. Have to admit had the cut been a 7 would have been real nervous.
Gougie00 says: I thought about the 5 lead. I dont want to give the opponent anything, and leading the 5 is donating 2 points to his cause.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. Perhaps I was a little too cavalier in tossing (5-8). But I agree with Gougie00. No need to lead the 5 At this score. If you had kept 5-5-8-8 I suppose you would consider the Langley Trap right about now?
Guest says: People have been playing cribbage since the 1600s how in the heck does Langley get credit for that simple "trap" ?
Guest says: spin
Inushtuk1 says: Jim probably says the same damn thing.
spin121 says: Yeah, he might even be embarrassed about it. Who knows.
Inushtuk1 says: Probably.
Ras2829 says: With opponent at 30 needing to be at 43 minimum, am not the least concerned about giving dealer two points and knowing that I have 14 to count. Have picked up 15-8 twice over the past three weeks leading the five when holding two of them with one on the deck. Would never lead the five if not one on the deck. If the starter card had ben a 7, would have led the 8. I give Jim Langley the credit as he is the only player who took time years ago to show me how this works when opponent holding 5-X-X-X or similar. Nobody has explained it since come to think about it. Most players I mention it to respond with something like this: "Amazed - never thought of these cards working this way." Who knows what Sir John Suckling knew about it? None of the early books on cribbage mention the 8-8-5-5 or 8-8-X-X in terms of pegging 31-4. So for my money, the Langley Trap is a fitting label. Of course, Jim Langley never named it. It was other players like myself who did so after Jim had explained how it worked.
Coeurdelion
5573 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:06 PM
I think there's probably 3 choices - the flush, 5-5-8-Q or 5-5-8-8:

5H-8H-9-Q: 6pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.30) = -½pt

5-5-8-Q: 6pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.83) = +¼pt

5-5-8-8: 4pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.11) = 0pt

Potential:

5H-8H-9-Q: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 55, 6666, 7777, 88, 999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 10/11pts with 55, 7777, 10101010, QQQ = 13 cuts. Plus 9 hearts for an extra 1pt for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt

5-5-8-Q: Improves with 2222, 55, 7777, 88 + 15xXs = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 10/12/14pts with 2222, 55 + 15xXs = 21 cuts.

5-5-8-8: Improves with 2222, 55, 7777, 88 + 15xXs = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 8/10/12pts with all cuts.

Pegging:

I think the flush will peg best and deceptively.

Position:

We only need 5pts to reach the next positional hole and Dealer is well behind so I'll play Defense for the pegging.

Summary:

5-5-8-Q has a reasonable number of cuts for improvement and more importantly 21 cuts for 10-14pts. It also starts with ¼-¾pt more than the other hands. So I'll throw the unsuited 8-9.
HalscribCLX
5296 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:12 PM
At 39-30* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total___W6 %____W7 %
5-5-8H-Q__8.39+(-3.17)+(-5.28)=(-0.06)__31.9____59.4
5H-8H-9-Q_8.59+(-3.02)+(-6.04)=(-0.47)__34.5____61.8
5-5-8-8___6.78+(-3.50)+(-3.79)=(-0.51)__26.3____55.0

Defense______L6 %____L7 %
5-5-8H-Q_____11.3____15.0
5H-8H-9-Q____11.9____14.5
5-5-8-8_______8.4____15.9

5-5-8H-Q is best for dynamic expected averages by 0.41pt over the flush. However the flush is best for Win %s by an appreciable amount while 5-5-8-8 is best for Loss %s because of the safe 9-Q discard. Both of these %s take account of the board position approaching a positional hole. But as its early in the game I'll put most weight on the expected averages and select 8C-9 to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll lead the Q and play Defense:

Lead________Dlr's Pegging Pts.
Q________________(-2.38)
5________________(-2.69)
8________________(-2.71)
glmccuskey
4074 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:33 PM
It pays to flush
LoneStarPegger
811 votes

Joined: January 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:27 PM
Hello CPZ...