February 10, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
15-9*  ?
47%
37%
8%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 146

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dec
4055 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Saturday 3:04 AM
More important for me to keep opponent back they have a huge par to make up. Four clubs lead. dec
Reply
Rosemarie44
835 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Saturday 4:05 AM
Lucky cut of a two. I can't see giving up 9-9 to dealer.
Reply
glmccuskey
2652 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Saturday 5:59 AM
With dealer at 9 and this early in the game I see no reason not to keep going t this way.
Reply
james500
1774 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Saturday 6:02 AM
Not far to go, but am I ruining my hand by choosing K-9?

Cuts of an Ace,2,4,6 or X (29/46) increase my hand to at least the six points I could've held if I'd kept A-4-4-K.

29 cards = 23 cards plus 6 cards =
29 cards = 50% + 13% =
29 cards = 63% chance of at regaining the 6 points. (8 points with the Ace).
Reply
jethrotulll
268 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Saturday 7:36 AM
K-A at this point almost as good as K-10 holding two fours.
Reply
Inushtuk1
556 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Saturday 7:55 AM
Looks like we were game’s starting Dealer. But there’s no need to be *that* defensive this early in the game, and our opponent so far back, as Gary said. I can peg better defensively with this “mitt” than I could with just two pairs in my hand. And A-4-4-9(9-K) guts my hand *way* too much. Leading the 4c and taking the “low lying fruit” if Dealer replies with an X-card.
Reply
Gougie00
3517 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Saturday 9:01 AM
Unless you know a 2 or 6 will be cut, play for face card being cut.
Reply
dgergens
99 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Saturday 10:38 AM
I was torn today. My preference was to play was A,4,4,K, and I had no qualms giving the dealer a pair; net points a wash too. But I was feeling lucky and thought I'd get a good cut. And voila.
Reply
horus93
129 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Saturday 11:39 AM
Best expected average
Reply
joekayak
418 votes

Joined: May 2016

   
Saturday 12:19 PM
early but 9-9 to dealer with this position risks too much. I'll give up 2 points in hand to try and keep dealer down. Rewarded with cut but even so, I believe this is the best move given the respective positions.
Reply
pinkcanadiandiamond
63 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Saturday 12:21 PM
Lucky cut. I'm not as scientific as the peeps here, but I say take the two pairs vs keep 6 in the hand (A,4,4K is the only other option I'd consider). I would lead the 4 of hearts.
Reply
pinkcanadiandiamond
63 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Saturday 12:22 PM
Lucky cut. I'm not as scientific as the peeps here, but I say take the two pairs vs keep 6 in the hand (A,4,4,K is the only other option I'd consider). I would lead the 4 of hearts.
Reply
Coeurdelion
3463 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Saturday 1:14 PM
I hope everyone has a great International Cribbage Day!

I think its between A-4-4-K (9-9) and 4-4-9-9 (A-K). Although perhaps A-4-4-9 (9-K) is worth looking at?:

A-4-4-K: 6pts - 6¼pts = -¼pt

4-4-9-9: 4pts - 4½pts = -½pts

A-4-4-9: 2pts - 4pts = -2pts

Potential:

A-4-4-K: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 6666, 7777 + 15xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 10/12pts with AAA, 44 + 15xXs = 20 cuts.

4-4-9-9: Improves with 2222, 44, 6666, 7777, 99 = 16 cuts = 16/46 = 34.8% up to 8/12pts with 2222, 44, 6666, 99 = 12 cuts.

A-4-4-9: Improves with AAA, 2222, 44, 5555, 6666, 7777, 999 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 6/8pts with AAA, 2222, 44, 6666 + 15xXs = 28 cuts.

Pegging:

I think A-4-4-K and A-4-4-9 will both peg quite well.

Position:

It looks as if we were First Pone and we both scored on average. So I'll still be playing Defense for the pegging.

Summary:

A-4-4-K has the best starting value and a good number of cuts for improvement with 20 cuts for 10-12pts. Also I think it will peg well. Under these conditions I don't think 9-9 is too much to give to opponent.
Reply
HalscribCLX
3232 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Saturday 2:52 PM
At 15-9* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total_____W8 %____W9 %
A-4-4-K___8.61+(-2.35)+(-6.29)=(-0.03)____39.7____55.1
4-4-9-9___5.57+(-2.63)+(-4.06)=(-1.12)____29.6____48.7
A-4-4-9C__5.00+(-2.26)+(-4.10)=(-1.36)____31.1____50.4

Defense_______L8 %____L9 %
A-4-4-K_______24.2____20.6
4-4-9-9_______19.0____23.4
A-4-4-9C______19.1____22.4

A-4-4-K is best for expected averages by 1.09pts and is significantly best for Win %s although it is slightly higher for Loss %s because of the risk of the 9-9. Even so I'll select the 9-9 to discard.

After the 2 discard I'll lead the 4C and play Defense:

Lead__________Pone's Pegging Pts.
4___________________(-1.95)
A___________________(-2.10)
K___________________(-2.88)
Reply
The_Bee_Mann
306 votes

Joined: November 2016

   
Saturday 5:54 PM
I like keeping the two pair and not giving the dealer some free points. The cut was perfect.
Reply
Ras2829
3009 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Saturday 6:16 PM
At 15 holes, will retain the six points, play defense, lead the four of clubs and take pegs that seem reasonably safe. Nearly half the deck gives me 10-12 points (AAA, 44, 5555, 10101010, JJJJ, QQQQ, and KKK) and put me at hole 25 or beyond with the upcoming deal. If the cut had given me at least 10 points would have chosen offensive pegging strategy. After seeing the starter card and knowing that I have 6 points only, primary motive is to slow opponent.
Reply
cribbagepogo
2567 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Saturday 8:09 PM
Net points the same as giving 2 - 9's. Why help. You can cut a card for this just as easily as proven.
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