February 22, 2018
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Total votes: 155 |
dec 6349 votes Joined: April 2008 |
    Thursday 3:24 AM
Depending on lead calcualaing if there is a shot to trip threes otherwise hoping opponent falls down. dec |
Rosemarie44 2052 votes Joined: March 2016 |
    Thursday 4:00 AM
What else would we hold today? |
glmccuskey 4093 votes Joined: April 2011 |
    Thursday 5:34 AM
I’ll keep enough to go out and peg as defensively as I can. |
james500 3915 votes Joined: June 2013 |
    Thursday 5:53 AM
Peg defensively (the reason I've kept the King rather than the 10), and hope Pone has too few points. Would "take the bait" on a led 5 though.
Pone holding 5,T,Q,K (or any other 6 point 5XXX hand) needs to peg a point, so wisely leads the 5 giving themselves a 3/4 chance to score 25/2. Even if they do, my pair of threes scores 31/4 which, when added to the 15/2 I took earlier, gives me the win. JQT says: I think this hand choice by james5000 is *also* extremely interesting today! The benefits of approaching such an Endgame Scenario with flexibility, a scenario in which we find ourselves needing Six Holes as the Dealer, are important: We have about a 4 DIV 46 equals 0.087 or nearly a 9% chance of cutting a Jack! If we do get that Jack Cut, then we would only require Four Holes of pegging. Another vital concept comes into play here: When the Non-Dealer needs about Seven Points (or more) in order to win, the ability for the Non-Dealer to peg *defensively* usually begins to diminish. This is predictable, because as we seek to retain more points in our Hand, our choices to peg defensively often become more limited due to the more 'aggressive' nature of our card selection. And therefore this may present some difficulties for Pone during the pegging. Here is a Pegging Ploy tactic (reminiscent of that "More Money" axiom...) worthy of remembering I think during such endgames: "More Points ... More Problems!" Thus, we do seem to have some compelling reasons to Keep (3 3 6 9) today; after all, it is our best Pegging Hand. But once we Toss (T K), we cannot peg with Ten/King! On the other Hand, if we Keep (3 3 T K), or Keep (3 3 9 K) as james500 has chosen, now we naturally have a more defensive arrangement to use during the pegging; but if we do indeed Cut that Jack, we can STILL choose to 'grab' some points during the pegging. Therefore, I believe that a *defensive* approach allows us the *flexibility* of later playing (at least to a degree) offense, where as if we go into this with an *offensive* approach, it's much more difficult to then resort to defense later. This is a splendid puzzle, and for those Real Cribbage Aficionados, it's worthy of dealing out several dozen different Dealer and Non-Dealer Hands from exactly such a score to become familiar with the way it "plays out." |
JRCeagle78 1054 votes Joined: June 2016 |
    Thursday 7:17 AM
With an 8 cut, the percentages of the opportunity of the dealer counting his hand are greatly diminished. Our best hope is to triple with the 3's or the pone to make a mistake. Play defensive and wait for the opportunity, |
Andy (muesli64) 2223 votes Joined: August 2009 |
    Thursday 8:04 AM
But, as dealer, I lost!! Andy (muesli64) says: Correction. I lost as pone!! The whole point! Andy (muesli64) says: Correction. I lost as pone!! The whole point! Ras2829 says: Hi Andy: Very good puzzles the last couple of days. Ras2829 says: Hi Andy: Very good puzzles the last couple of days. |
JQT 4143 votes Joined: October 2008 |
    Thursday 9:37 AM
Pone (who normally will AVERAGE to score Ten Holes) needs just Seven Points to WIN, and has First Hand Show.
Therefore, we must decide which makes more sense (or is easier): Can we "hold back" Pone to score only Six (or fewer) Points? Or, can we somehow PEG Six Holes?? Pone will almost certainly retain his/her best Hand in order to "cover" those needed Seven Holes, and this *could* allow us to peg a bit more freely; for this task, we would probably Keep (3 3 6 9) and Toss (T K). But pegging Seven Points is exactly DOUBLE the Dealer Pegging Average of 3.5 Holes. That's asking a LOT. Alternatively, we might try to limit Pone to Six Holes, and this is probably best achieved with Keep (3 3 T K) and Toss (6 9). This is also a very tall order, but I think it's preferable to the former idea. We have Two Points in Hand, and Two Points (known) in our Crib, and we'll always peg One Point as the Dealer, thus (worst case scenario) we are within One Hole of going out. Frankly, covering those Six Holes is the *least* of our concerns today, and I believe that those who retain Keep (3 3 6 9) simply for those "extra" few points are totally focusing on the wrong area. Thus I'll Toss (6 9) and prepare to DEFEND to the TEETH. However, if I see *any* way to "Triple" those Treys during the pegging, I'll jump at it, especially if we Cut a Jack! JQT says: Fourth Paragraph should of course begin: "But pegging SIX Points is NEARLY DOUBLE the Dealer Pegging Average of 3.5 Holes." Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Just read your comments as mine were posted at nearly the same time. I'm a weak echo to most of what you had to say.
JQT says: As usual, Andy gives us a great puzzle. I think it's paramount that we first identify the PRIMARY PROBLEM that is facing us: is this an *offensive* PEGGING task, or is it a *defensive* one? Once we have decided that we believe (as I do) that the latter idea (DEFENSE) is slightly more achievable than the former idea, we look for a DEFENSIVE PEGGING HAND. And lo and behold, we are blessed to have dealt ourselves an almost-perfect one in the form of Keep (3 3 T K)! But it's not an easy arrangement to identify UNTIL we define the intended approach we wish to take. For those who are trying to peg Six Holes, then Keep (3 3 6 9) is probably the most sound choice, but you should make sure you follow through with the proper reasoning: you are trying to Peg Six Holes! Holding this latter arrangement simply because it CONTAINS MORE POINTS is an illusion. As long as Pone doesn't WIN with First Hand Show, the Dealer *almost always* will score Eight or Ten Points! (Remember, Sixteen Holes is the Dealer AVERAGE!) And even if we did come up One Point Shy (which is the worst case, non-losing scenario here), after counting our Crib, then we would go into Next Deal at (again, worst case scenario) a score of (120-120*). JQT says: Hello RAS: I could virtually *feel* an echo in there beginning to rumble! Still, choosing Toss (6 9) is only at 2% thus far, as of High Noon EST. Ras2829 says: Hi JQT; Have no idea what the correct choice should be. Held six points although four would probably work just as well since I have that guaranteed peg and a crib. Of course, if non-dealer does not count out, have dealer pegging advantage upcoming deal. King does provide a good escape card if want to play off in the pegging game. JQT says: Here is just one example of an exciting and crazy play-out, where even without a Jack Cut, a disappointing-at-first Trey Cut allows us to turn up the Offensive Jets: (115*-114) Pone (3 4 5 6) Toss (6 8) vs. Dealer (3 3 T K) Toss (6 9) Cut 3! [Crib Prof T: 22439.4032.319] Pegging Proceeded: 3 (3) 3 (6=2) 6 (12) 3 (15=2) 4 (19) K (29=1) . 5 (5) T (15=3) JQT says: And here's yet another example of an even more chilling loss for our Poor Pone Opponent: (115*-114) Pone (3 3 8 8) Toss (J J) vs. Dealer (3 3 T K) Toss (6 9) Cut 7 [Crib Prof T: 23986.5365.29792] Pegging Proceeded Thusly: 3 (3) 3 (6=2) 8! (14) K (24) 3 (27) 3 (30=3) . 8 (8) T (18=1). Notice the brutal, cold-harded logic that Halscrib is forced into choosing in which it feels that it must still defend (as Pone *still* needing to peg Three *more* Holes), as it forgoes Tripling our Trey where it might have scored (9-6) Points! I'm sure most (if not all) humans would immediately *pounce* at that juncture and plunk down that Trey, after which we would of course, as the Dealer, now tally (12=12) for the nice win at (121-120)! It is my opinion that studying endgame scenarios such as these until *all* of the subtle logic at-play can be understood and absorbed is one of the finest aspects of Cribbage. Yesterday, I got careless in my analysis with Samgash (who incidentally was absolutely correct) when our Dealer Opponent was at Hole 119, and I over-estimated our chances as pone to defend via the pegging: a motivated Dealer will almost *ALWAYS* peg those last Two Holes, regardless of how defensive we think our Hand might be, and in spite of how well we might play it. Today however, we may find that quite the opposite is true, when our Opponent is Pone needing Seven Holes. And while we probably only have a 10% chance of prevailing in such an endgame, I think we may be inadvertently 'chopping' those odds down even further if we hold the less-defensive cards. Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Don't want to be playing you in end-game situations. You would take too many games away from me. Great choice, wonderful insights, and HalscribCLX agrees. In this position my Cribbage Prof shows to keep 3-3-6-9. Just ran the query. Might not be fully functioning though as downloaded to windows 10 some time back. HalscribCLX figures show just how difficult it is to peg for the win with these cards. Got a 1/4 chance with your choice and 1/5 with mine. WOW!!! JQT says: I am reminded of the old Web Club Competition (Duplicate Cribbage) that Hal used to run each week online for several years using Halscrib, competing against some of the toughest and most competitive players from around North America (and beyond, I think), players who would log in to compete in usually nine "duplicate" games each week. (Perhaps a few old Timers here at "Hand of the Day" can remember playing in the Web Club?) Anyway, once way back in June 2011, there were a few weeks in succession which happened to entail very close endgames, and somehow I was able win TWO WEEKS IN A ROW on Week 23 (June 2) and Week 24 (June 9). And then shortly before the following week, Hal left me a very nice and encouraging message on my answering machine wishing me the best in the upcoming week, and he said that nobody had ever won it three weeks in a row. I'd like to say I then 'crushed it' the following week and brought home a Gold Medal; but alas, I came up short! That was nearly seven years ago, and it seems just like yesterday. The Web Club feature still exists within Halscrib, but it takes a tremendous amount of effort to administer the whole process, but my-oh-my, it was probably the most exciting and competitive Cribbage I've ever experienced, and it came to an end the following year in 2012. I really miss it..... |
Ras2829 5145 votes Joined: November 2008 |
    Thursday 9:43 AM
Dealer needs to peg six if that is the strategy. Very unusual that would occur. In this case, holding 3-3-6-9, pegging is even more difficult as opponent would not likely retain A-2, 2-4, a trey, or 6-9 combination. We need those kinds of cards in order to peg six. So unless turning a Jack, my strategy is to play SAFE. What are chances that we can limit non-dealer to six points? That's 1/6. Better chance of that than scoring six pegs. Dealer average on pegs is 3.5 as pointed out by JQT recently. A dealer with a superb pegging game might average 3.8-3.9, seldom 4.0. The difference between mediocrity and absolute expertise is a very small margin in all aspects of play. Regardless of the ability level of the player, the deck of 52 is a constant and becomes a leveler in all aspects of the game. If a Jack had been cut, I would have taken the first two pegs offered. Six out, will play off the lead although would pair a trey. Dealer will lose a very high percentage of games needing six pegs. My estimate that dealer scoring six pegs is probably about 1/15 in end-game situations. If non-dealer has 7 points, has first count, and will be avoiding pegs. Very difficult to peg six unless you have a very willing adversary. |
Inushtuk1 1479 votes Joined: July 2016 |
    Thursday 11:38 AM
“After all, it is our best Pegging Hand.” JQT says: Thus Spoke Zarathustra! |
HalscribCLX 5312 votes Joined: February 2008 |
    Thursday 3:51 PM
At 115*-114 playing an Optimal strategy the Win%s are:
Optimal_______Win % 3-3-10-K______25.7 3-3-9-K_______24.3 3-3-9-10______23.5 3-3-6-9_______20.3 3-6-10-K______19.9 3-3-6-K_______18.9 6-9-10-K______18.8 3-3-6-10______18.6 3-9-10-K______18.4 3-6-9-10______18.1 3-6-9-K_______17.4 3-3-10-K is best for Chances of Winning so I'll select 6-9 to discard. After the 8 cut I'll play Defense to the lead. |