February 23, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by ras2829
40*-37  ?
55%
40%
3%
0%
Total votes: 160
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Friday 3:15 AM
If choosing defense strategy, the mid cards go to the crib. If I am correct in my strategy, this is the hand to hold in this position.
Rosemarie44 says: Would a moderator take a look at hand on 2/24/18. Looks impossible to me.
dec says: A-2-4-6 about the only way they do not go out it seems to me. dec
Rosemarie44 says: Should we delete this submission?
Guest says: Maybe a star life master player could possibly look at this querry .. maybe submit another before tomorrow I got one in mind. dec
james500 says: I'm intrigued. If you do delete, can you share the hand and position with us today please.
Rosemarie44 says: Hi james500: I did not delete the submission. Someone else deleted that day's hand.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Rosemarie. We know you did not delete it. But we want to know what it was. Thanking you in advance.
Guest says: I care less
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:17 AM
The threes and sixes cuts decided this for me. I'll break it up this way. dec
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Friday 3:53 AM
Three in a row for 7-8.

*Have only just read JQT's response to yesterday's post. Thank you for the very kind words.
glmccuskey
4095 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Friday 5:33 AM
I like the 2-2-7 pegging trio.
Gougie00
5724 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Friday 5:37 AM
Another seminar regarding tossing middle cards versus face cards in the crib. Still convinced middle cards is the way to go.
cribbagepogo says: Because no one ever throws K/10 into crib?
james500 says: Hi both. Interesting question you raise, as to which two cards are more likely to have synergy with Pone's discard. They do like K-10 as you point out, but they'll often choose a picture card-mid card combo too, such as a King or Queen with a 6,8 or 9.
Gougie00 says: If the pone tosses K-10 face up in my crib, I would certainly toss my JQ. The problem for me is cards thrown face down makes it difficult to guess.
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Friday 7:22 AM
I don't want to see the pone reach his desired target before I reach mine so I will play as defensively as possible. With an Ace cut I don't expect much help in the crib.
Inushtuk1
1481 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Friday 8:07 AM
If I *was* playing defense I would toss the mid-cards, as Rosemarie says. But I’m on optimal. My deficit, and Pone’s surplus are similar. So I’ll keep the three-card eleven, and hope for two X-cards from the Pone.

With that poor cut I have only five known points. I’m more concerned with moving down the board now than I am in impeding my opponent’s progress. I’ll take all points offered; taking the (15-2)s on a 7 or 8 lead, and of *course* pairing a 2 lead.
Inushtuk1 says: I think this follows the general rule that with S-S-M-M-X-X on offense, or optimal; toss the X-X in your crib if they are a pair, or there is a J among them. On defense toss the mid-cards. Even the lowly (Q-Q) and (K-K) go in our crib to keep the peggers in our hand on offense, or optimal. But if the X-cards are (K-Q), (10-Q), or God forbid, (K-10) then always toss the mid-cards no matter the strategy. But perhaps Ras can verify that. That seems to be what I recall him saying recently. This is just a *general *rule. But I believe it applies perfectly in this case.
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Friday 9:23 AM
Been here before recently!! I'm sticking to 8-7 all the same.
Andy (muesli64) says: Checked out. No difference on hand valuation. Therefore - for same reasons as before - Q-J is better.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Friday 9:44 AM
We are shy of our desired position by nearly half a dozen holes.

Toss (J Q) should allow us to peg more aggressively with the PAIR of Deuces and the "Touching" Cards 7-8 in our Hand. Play ON!

Nice Cut for those who chose Toss (7 8) ... not so nice for those of us who chose Toss (J Q).
dgergens says: So this is the part of my cribbage education that I never received, board position. Having voted and read here for nearly a year before joining, it's clear you pay very close attention to board position. I too consider board position when I play, but primarily relative to my opponent, and mainly in the last 30 point stretch. Here, early in game, your comment indicates you are short of some desired position. Would you mind explaining how you determined what that desired position was and why you gave it enough importance to choose aggressive pegging over putting a 7,8 in your crib. Thanks.
JQT says: I would first recommend reading "Play Winning Cribbage" (1997) by DeLynn Colvert as one of his last chapters in this excellent book covers Positional Play in quite some detail. You can also look at some of what has been already been written on this site, the Daily Cribbage Hand. When I did a Google Search of (daily cribbage hand positional play) I found several hits: from most recent going back, check out these and several others: http://dailycribbagehand.org/show.php?date=2016-08-16 http://dailycribbagehand.org/show.php?date=2016-06-19 http://dailycribbagehand.org/show.php?date=2013-12-07 Also, on the Cribbage Forum website, Michael Schell has given what I call his "Simplified System" in the last section titled "Board strategy questions" at: http://www.cribbageforum.com/Mailbag5.htm
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Friday 10:58 AM
Hmmm. I'm always disappointed when I don't choose the same JQT. I'm was a bit surprised, considering his lectures on the holistic consideration of hand & crib. The word lecture here has no negative connotation. I kept the 2's with the face cards in hope cut would increase points, since 7,8 was mine to score either way. Will comment in your box.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi dgergens. The holistic approach also includes the potential offensive, or defensive pegging potential of the hand. Not just the average hand and average crib; also known as expected average. In this case, JQT and others choose to keep the offensive pegging potential of 2-2-7.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Friday 4:19 PM
2-2, 7-8 or J-Q?:

7-8-J-Q: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.72) = 7¾pts

2-2-J-Q: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 8½pts

2-2-7-8: 4pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.81) = 8¾pts

Potential:

7-8-J-Q: Improves with 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 5/6pts with 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999, 10101010, KKKK = 26 cuts.

2-2-J-Q: Improves with AAAA, 22, 3333, 5555 + 14xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 5/6/10pts with AAAA, 22, 3333, 5555, 10101010, KKKK = 22 cuts.

2-2-7-8: Improves with 22, 3333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 7/8/11pts with all cuts.

Pegging:

I think 2-2-7-8 will peg best with the pair of 2s and a 3-card magic eleven.

Position:

We are 4pts short of position so I'll play Offense to gain position.

Summary:

2-2-7-8 has a good number of cuts for improvement and the best maximum with 28 cuts for 7-11pts. Also it has the highest starting value by ¼pt and it ought to peg best. So I'll throw the J-Q.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Friday 4:48 PM
At 40*-37 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
2-2-7-8___6.26+1.17+4.85=12.29____26.6____35.6
2-2-J-Q___4.61+0.20+6.71=11.52____27.2____37.1
7-8-J-Q___4.43+0.52+5.61=10.57____23.8____32.3

Optimal_______L6 %____L7 %
2-2-7-8_______25.6____42.5
2-2-J-Q_______24.3____40.9
7-8-J-Q_______26.7____45.1

2-2-7-8 is best for expected averages by 0.77pt although 2-2-J-Q is slightly best for Win %s and Loss %s. As its early in the game I'll choose based on the expected averages and select J-Q to discard.

After the A cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
Ras2829
5146 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Friday 8:36 PM
At hole 40, it seems far more important for me to move down the board than worry about limiting an opponent already at hole 37. Opponent needs to deal from 2nd street CPZ 43-47. So agree with Inushtuk1 that choice of strategy should be optimal. Once seeing the A cut which adds nothing to my hand and is of no value to my discard, now moves me to play offense and will take any pegs offered. If the X-point cards had been 10-K, 10-Q, or Q-K, the 7-8 discard to crib would have given the greater combined value. Very important to have some idea of the values of these X-point combinations as many will not work as does the J-Q. Many 10-point cribs result from J-Q discard because of the most frequent of opponent discards in the 10-K. In fact the 10-K from opponent is at least 50% more likely than any of the other 90 discard combinations. And 50% of the 20 lowest scoring discards to opponent crib include the King which assures a run of three in the dealer crib. Takes not much help for that crib to grow to 8 points. So 30% of the cribs to which dealer tosses J-Q are worth 8 or more points. Of dealer discards not worth two points to begin, the J-Q scores more cribs of 8 or more than any other two cards including the 6-7 and 3-4;. If you have difficulty understanding what I'm communicating here, e-mail raswino29@outlook.com. Some great comments in the above postings. Take the time to read them.
Ras2829 says: BTW am though hosting the North "Toutle Rest Stop I-5 MP54 until March 19-23. Been late most days getting on, haven't claimed that I was headed to town, and nobody has accused me of going to town either.
Ras2829 says: Did not comment above regarding the deletion of puzzle for 2/24 which had been submitted by an e- cribbage player. I fully support any decision by a moderator to delete a puzzle. As far as I know there are 10 moderators all of whom have been vested with authority to delete puzzles. I do not care to know who deleted what or when. Speaking for myself, RAS deletes more than 30 puzzles over each 6-month period, 25 of which on average are mine. Why delete my puzzles? Want to encourage a broad base of submissions so that puzzles fit the needs of a larger number of site users. Also don't like to see three days consecutive featuring my puzzles. On average then RAS deletes 5 puzzles in each six month interval that were submitted by others. The quality of the puzzles is exceptional, often of great instructional value, and serve the needs of a user base with beginning, intermediate, and advanced cribbage skills.