Saturday 3:11 AM

Another S-S-M-M-X-X puzzle. I'll go with X-X today, in part due to comments I've recently read on here, in part due to "hopenosis".

   

Saturday 3:33 AM

Went for more cuts, playing this one on the offensive. dec

   

Saturday 4:25 AM

I know the rule, just requires knowing whether to go offense or defense in today's submission. I chose offense so the Jacks goes into the crib.

   

Saturday 5:07 AM

What's the catch?!

   

Saturday 5:21 AM

Nice Puzzle, 77 or JJ? A 3,5,6,7 gives me 12, and the Jacks might get a 10-Q from the opponent.

My stretch goal is 20 points, but I want at least 15. Time for some pegging?

Side comment regarding the olympics: Dont get into a war with Norway in the winter.

   

Saturday 6:16 AM

I want to keep the 5-7-7 together.

   

Saturday 6:21 AM

I'd play off after the cut. Doubt I can make it to 60+, but with a little luck I can hold pone down and maybe regain position on the next hand. I'm still pretty dang bad at evaluating things like "defensive pegging potential" (beyond barebone rules of thumb like magic elevens, sweet sixteens, keeping a diversity of cards, avoiding touching cards), but J's get trapped a lot. Of all the things the best analysts do, being able to visualize how different hands might play out across the table is the most impressive to me. On any X lead I'd play a 7, dump the 5 asap and hopefully get first go with the three. 9 or 8 I'd play the 5. I'd pair a 7, it's too early to be playing extreme defense imo and I have two of the things after all. On a 6 I'd play three, on 5 I'd play 7, 4 I'd play 7 (even though that seems to so often to give up a 15-2, better than starting a run), 3, 2, or A I'd play a 7.

@james500 I have a chronic case of hopenosis that I've been slowly curing by running practice hands thru discardpro during downtime at work but it's a hard habit to break when you've been doing it since you started playing!

   

Saturday 6:55 AM

This puzzle is a 'tough cookie.'

And that's because while Toss (7 7) is more powerful than Toss (J J), the Keep (3 5 7 7) Hand is more powerful than the Keep (3 5 J J) Hand!

If our POSITION were adequate, I'd have no qualms with Toss (7 7) here, and then we could peg with perhaps more flexibility.

Thus if the score were (46*-40) or even (46*-50), I'd probably be stowing those 7 Cards in The Box.

But as we faced in a recent puzzle, we are Dealing from Hole 40 here, and this demands we peg offensively.

Therefore, for that reason alone I'll Toss (J J) today, because while we may actually not do as well with our NET result (Opponent Result vs. Our Own resultant score), we do need to peg a bit to get ourselves into position.

Our pegging requirements decide it for us today.

   

Saturday 8:31 AM

Yes; same as yesterday. On offense the X-X cards go to our crib. On defense (7-7) goes to the box. Continuing with offense after the cut. I’ll pair the rare 5 lead, as well as the more common 3 or 7 of course.

   

Saturday 9:30 AM

So may player discards end up being K-Q or Q-10. Duane Toll once told me he thinks Q-10 might be greatest discard in cribbage.

   

Saturday 1:08 PM

Kind of ironic that this puzzle and the one of yesterday include many of the same principles. Yesterday's puzzle was submitted more than a year ago and this one in the past couple of days. You might want to read my comments of yesterday regarding the value of X-point discards to dealer crib. The J-J is particularly good as it encourages opponent to discard 9-10, 10-Q, or Q-K. Those cards just might be real lonely in non-dealer hand. The Jacks will always be worth two points as would the 7-7, and the Jack pair stand a chance to gain a point about half the time. In addition choosing an offense pegging strategy, the 3-5-7-7 are the better peggers (perhaps not by much). With opponent already at hole 46, I will take any pegs offered. Although that 10 spot may give me a crib of 8 points or more, although only two points are known. If the common 9-K, 9-Q, or others previously mentioned were discarded, crib will be 8 or more. Submitted this as so many automatically toss the mid-cards from such a hand. Let position and choice of strategy determine your discard. Am amazed that 84% of you elected to toss J-J. That's a very encouraging sign and far exceeds what I've observed in live play.

   

Saturday 3:05 PM

Two choices 3-5-7-7 (J-J) and 3-5-J-J (7-7):

3-5-7-7: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.33) = 11¼pts

3-5-J-J: 6pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.92) = 11¾pts

Potential:

3-5-7-7: Improves with AAAA, 333, 4444, 555, 6666, 77, 8888 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 9/10/12pts with 333, 4444, 555, 6666, 77, 8888 = 20 cuts.

3-5-J-J: Improves with 2222, 333, 4444, 555, 77 + 14xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 9/10/12pts with 2222, 4444, 555, 77, JJ = 15 cuts. Plus 22 clubs and diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 22/46 = 0.48pt.

Pegging:

These will peg similarly but I think 3-5-7-7 slightly better.

Position:

We are short of position so I'll play Offense to try to catch up.

Summary:

3-5-7-7 has more cuts for improvement and more for 9-12pts plus it should peg better. 3-5-J-J starts with ½pt more than 3-5-7-7 plus it has nearly an extra potential for his nob. Even so I think 3-5-7-7 will make this up so I'll throw the two Knaves.

   

Saturday 3:07 PM

At 40*-46 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
3-5-7-7___8.96+3.43+5.10=17.49____35.3____21.5
3-5-J-J___8.48+2.78+5.87=17.13____36.8____22.2

Offense_______L6 %____L7 %
3-5-7-7_______54.8____59.1
3-5-J-J_______55.2____58.2

3-5-7-7 is 0.36pt better for expected averages but 3-5-J-J is slightly better for Win %s and Loss %s which both take account of the board position. However, as its still early in the game I'll place more weight on the expected averages and select J-J to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.