March 13, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by andy (muesli64)
117*-116  ?
59%
13%
10%
9%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 146
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:28 AM
Holding small cards and at least 4 points.
wasa says: As dealer I'm guaranteed a pegging point so I only need to hold 3 points. Trying to figure whether to hold the 6 or the 7 with A-2-3.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:34 AM
If we try to peg out *first* then Keep (A 2 3 ?) does seem appropriate.

But I'm not convinced that *offensive* pegging is our best course of action here. It may be, but perhaps only *if* we Cut that elusive Jack!

Otherwise, something such as Toss (2 3) seems correct at leaving us with a fairly *defensive* pegging hand today, although I do worry a bit about the Lone Ace.

But since I see nothing better, I'll Keep (A 6 7 T) and try to unload the Ace early and safely.

Pegging-wise, I suppose that Toss (3 6) or Toss (3 7) might be even safer, but perish the thought we should come up 'short' here!!
JQT says: Oops, I read Pone's score as 106, not 116. I'm not sure if this is due to my newly-acquired sixty-year-old mind, or eyes! Surely we must try to peg out, thus Keep (A 2 3 ?) or Keep (2 3 6 7) is the way to go; ignore all but my first paragraph above. I'll re-do and try Toss (6 T) here, if you'll pardon my poor earlier interpretation.
JQT says: Oops, I read Pone's score as 106, not 116. I'm not sure if this is due to my newly-acquired sixty-year-old mind, or eyes! Surely we must try to peg out, thus Keep (A 2 3 ?) or Keep (2 3 6 7) is the way to go; ignore all but my first paragraph above. I'll re-do and try Toss (6 T) here, if you'll pardon my poor earlier interpretation.
Rosemarie44 says: Those keeps were my two original choices. A-2-3 or 2-3-6-7.
Rosemarie44 says: Those keeps were my two original choices. A-2-3 or 2-3-6-7.
dec
6357 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:53 AM
An anything goes pegging scenario. I kept hopefully a variety to pair or a chance to peg four with one card. dec
james500
3922 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:40 AM
One big card to push the count up, and the small run.
Gougie00
5729 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:44 AM
Selling out with all the small cards.

Nice puzzle. My guess is that it all comes down to luck at this stage. If I am the pone, I keep 4 points only and avoid pegging.

The snowstorm drifted east a bit and Boston is getting hammered with snow. Only 2 inches here so far.
Rosemarie44 says: Storm is likely to hit around 9 AM here.
Inushtuk1
1486 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:35 AM
I’m like wasa. Trying to figure out whether to hold the 6, or the 7 with A-2-3. Well the 7 is a key connector. But I’m not sure how logical that is, and shouldn’t expect any conventional logic from my opponent at this point. Let’s try the 7, and hope for the J cut, so we need not worry about trips after I pair anything in sight.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Tuesday 8:07 AM
In the minority again today! I went for a diversity of cards and a magic 11. I'd rather play off than on but I wonder what the averages really say.
horus93 says: And my keep was A-3-7-T
jethrotulll
298 votes

Joined: May 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 8:54 AM
Not sure why people are talking about scoring here. You will have to peg out. You will not be counting your hand.
Ras2829
5153 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 9:54 AM
What are chances to limit non-dealer to four points on this deal? That's 1/15. Of course you all know when cutting that five spot in end-game situations, non-dealer often goes out from much further out What are chances that dealer can peg out? That's about 4/10. Dealer pegs average 3.5-3.6. A player with strong pegging game averages about 3.8 when dealing. Based on those numbers have got to go for it. Thus will hold 2-3-6-7 as have chance to play off small cards or the mid-cards needing four. If had only needed two pegs would have held A-2-3-6. Very good end-game scenario andy (muesli64)!!
Ras2829 says: BTW, I will take the first two pegs offered. Needing four to win, it seldom works to pass up the first two. Needing three I would play defense to the lead as HaslcribCLX has chosen.
Coeurdelion
5594 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:06 PM
I often prefer to have 3 low cards and a high card for pegging but in this instance we can keep a 3-card magic eleven. That means A-2-3-7 or A-2-3-6. I prefer A-2-3-7 just because the 7 is a little higher. I'll throw the 6-10.
cribbagepogo
3251 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:27 PM
Agree with Ras. I need to peg out, a run of low card finish might work.
HalscribCLX
5317 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:50 PM
Playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging Our Peg Out %s are:

Optimal_____Our Peg Out %s
A-2-3-7________52.4
A-2-3-6________50.7
A-2-3-10_______46.9
A-3-6-7________46.3
3-6-7-10_______45.7
2-3-6-7________44.7
A-3-6-10_______42.9
A-2-7-10_______42.9
A-2-6-7________42.8
A-2-6-10_______42.3
A-3-7-10_______38.8
A-6-7-10_______37.6
2-6-7-10_______37.0
2-3-6-10_______37.0
2-3-7-10_______35.7

A-2-3-7 has the best chance of pegging out so I'll select 6-10 to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.