Friday 3:41 AM

Did we get a discard there also? dec

   

Friday 3:45 AM

4-5 is a top ten discard.

   

Friday 4:06 AM

A dozen points with a 2 or 3 cut, strong discard to my box.

   

Friday 4:39 AM

So I am in the minority today. This is a Ras submission after all. True, with an 8 or 10 cut the hand increases to 12 or 14 points by tossing 4-5. In contrast, the hand is heavily weighted to staying at 4 points or increasing to 6 points with 34 cuts.
I liked holding A-4-5-Q and tossing 2-2 to my crib which has almost the same expected averages (not including pegging) as tossing 4-5:
13.02 pts vs. 13.03 pts. respectively.
Am I over analyzing? Is the correct toss putting two close cards one of which is a 5?

   

Friday 6:04 AM

I like 45 in the crib. I probably have 9 points in the crib, 4 in the hand and 1 for pegging. I'll try to parlay the 22 to get into position.

   

Friday 6:26 AM

Tossing the 4-5 to the crib is clearly the best move. The fact that they are suited is a bonus, even though the crib flush was killed by the 6h.

If the dealer can hold the 2-2, 5 holes of pegging is within the realm of possibilities.

Having at least 5 points in the crib will allow me to peg aggressively.

   

Friday 7:16 AM

PAIRS are for peggin' and 4-5 is for Cribbin' so what's not to like?!

   

Friday 7:57 AM

45 great throw, 6X is a common throw by opponent.

   

Friday 8:19 AM

JQT mentioned the Star Toss and addition method two days ago. That leads us to this fine toss. But Rosemarie points out that A-4-5-Q is better for average hand. It’s very close, and we probably can’t go too far wrong with either keep. I prefer turning over bigger cribs with smaller hands myself.

The cut did nothing for my hand, but gives me at least 5 in my crib, and probably more. Playing defense to the lead. On an A lead playing the Q. Pairing the deuce. The 3 lead will see me playing the Q. If Pone’s next card is the deuce we pair it. Same thing for the 4 opening lead. On the 5 through 9 leads dumping the 2s. Not sure which is best defensively on an X-card lead, the A, or the 2s. Comments, suggestions.

   

Friday 2:36 PM

Play the ace, if they have all face-cards, 31 for 2 or 4.

   

Friday 2:52 PM

I think its a straight choice between A-4-5-Q (2-2) and A-2-2-Q (4-5):

A-4-5-Q: 4pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.72) = 9¾pts

A-2-2-Q: 4pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.48) = 10½pts

Potential:

A-4-5-Q: Improves with AAA, 3333, 444, 555, 6666, 9999 + 15xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 7/8/9/10pts with AAA, 3333, 444, 555, 6666, QQQ = 20 cuts.

A-2-2-Q: Improves with AAA, 22, 3333, 444, 555 + 15xX = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 8/12/14pts with AAA, 22, 3333, QQQ = 12 cuts.

Pegging:

Both hands will peg well. Perhaps A-2-2-Q slightly better.

Position:

As usual as First Dealer I'll play Defense but try to score the average 16pts or more for hand, pegs and crib.

Summary:

A-4-5-Q has more cuts for improvement and 20 cuts for 7-10pts but on the other hand A-2-2-Q has 12 cuts for 8-14pts. A-2-2-Q starts with ¾pt more than A-4-5-Q so I think it may have the edge. I'll throw the suited 4-5.

   

Friday 2:56 PM

At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W9 %____W10 %
A-2-2-Q___6.52+(-2.33)+6.55=10.74____39.0____51.5
A-4-5-Q___7.22+(-1.98)+5.37=10.61____39.4____51.6

Defense_______L9 %____L10 %
A-2-2-Q_______26.2____23.1
A-4-5-Q_______26.9____23.3

A-2-2-Q is better for expected averages by 0.13pt although A-4-5-Q is very slightly better for Win %s. A-2-2-Q is also slightly better for Loss %s so I'll select 4-5 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

   

Friday 4:37 PM

This hand is from a live game. Many who play the game have not recognized the high value of the 4-5 or 5-6 discard to own crib. Both have a higher average than does the 7-8 to own crib. As HalscribCLX analysis shows, the edge is very slight if playing defense as we should be on the opening hand. In any case, the 4-5 works so well to own crib because of those frequent 6-X, A-X, and 3-X discards. The 5-6 does well with the frequent discards of 9-K/Q, 4-X, and 7-X (K, Q, and 10 often). So it is def., def., def. and play off the lead, Ditching the lone Ace as first card played seems the defensive thing to do. Will hold the 2-2 intact if possible; no need to split them in most scenarios. Over 60% here have selected 4-5 discard. Would it look different if we were playing an offense strategy?