Saturday 3:06 AM

Throw J-Q is probably just as dangerous as Q-Q, but the latter allows us to retain the Jack.

By holding Mr. Jack, we may get that elusive 9-T-J Run, or we may get Nobs. And with a Ten of Diamonds Cut, we could get BOTH!

Anyway, instead of Toss (Q Q), I think the *defensive* option would be Toss (9 Q), and NOT Toss (J Q).

But as the First Non Dealer, we're in no mood for DEFENSE!

   

Saturday 3:14 AM

Offense here so the Queens go.

   

Saturday 5:11 AM

Any 2 face cards can lead to a 0 crib. I'll toss the JQ and hope the dealer tossed something like 79.
Lead the 6, and take any point that present themselves.

If anyone is going to Blackstone tomorrow, good luck! See you there.

   

Saturday 5:11 AM

For later on. I will put more weight on win/loss percentages then expected averages seeing its starting hand in the game. Six spades lead. How will I do? dec

   

Saturday 5:56 AM

Keep the jack in your hand. I’ll lead the six of diamonds.

   

Saturday 6:16 AM

Agree with JQT, keep the Jack incase the cut is a 10, Diamond or both.

   

Saturday 6:31 AM

Well it seemed like a good puzzle at the time of submission. Today? Not so much. Most are on the same page. I think I will try it this way on defense or optimal as well.

I led the 6d. For some reason Dealer paired it. So I took the trip for ((18-6). Dealer then played a 7 for the GO. I led my J to start the next play series. I pegged 6. Dealer got 4.

Feeling much better. Off to Blackstone. Google mapping it now. See you there and best of luck.

   

Saturday 8:17 AM

Hardly ever scared to throw a pair of X's to opponent's crib, certainly not at 0-0.

In "even" positions (i.e. even surplus and deficit) where I am behind and my hand is mediocre or poor I play defense so that's the plan here, lead the six of diamonds.

   

Saturday 10:42 AM

Three possibilities here - J-Q, Q-Q or the defensive 6S-J:

6-6-9-Q: 6pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.46) = +¼pt

6-6-9-J: 6pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.79) = +¼pt

6D-9-Q-Q: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.57) = -½pt

Potential:

6-6-9-Q: Improves with 3333, 5555, 66, 999, QQ = 15 cuts = 15/46 = 32.6% up to 12pts with 66, 999 = 5 cuts.

6-6-9-J: Improves with 3333, 5555, 66, 999, 10101010, JJJ = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 9/12pts with 66, 999, 10101010 = 9 cuts. Plus 11 diamons for 1pt more for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt

6D-9-Q-Q: Improves with 5555, 66, 999, QQ = 11 cuts = 11/46 =23.9% up to 8pts with all cuts.

Pegging:

None are good pegging hands perhaps 6-6-9-J very slightly better with the gapper 9-J.

Position:

As First Pone we'll be playing Offense.

Summary:

6D-9-Q-Q has a ¾pt lower starting value and has poorer potential so I don't think is worth considering. According to Schell J-Q is approximately ¼pt lower in the crib but pairs are often better in opponent's crib than close cards and in this case we can keep the J (worth an extra ¼pt potential. The Qs can only score runs with JQK or 10JQ and we have one J so therely be some negative delta. And also we have a gapper 9-J if we throw the Qs which gives us an extra 4 cuts with 10101010. So I think 6-6-9-J will be better.

   

Saturday 2:40 PM

At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W9 %____W10 %
6-6-9-J___7.63+1.11+(-5.85)=2.89____24.6____21.9
6-6-9-Q___7.09+1.11+(-5.67)=2.53____23.3____21.7
6-9-Q-Q___4.96+1.15+(-4.34)=1.77____18.5____20.0

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
6-6-9-J______40.0____52.8
6-6-9-Q______38.9____52.5
6-9-Q-Q______35.4____52.5

6-6-9-J is best for expected averages by 0.36pt and is slightly best for Win %s. 6-9-Q-Q is best for Loss %s because of the safer 6-J. However I'll select Q-Q to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll lead a 6D and play Offense:

Lead_________Our Pegging Pts.
5_________________1.47
9_________________1.16
J_________________1.02

   

Saturday 8:10 PM

It's off.' off.' off', for me with the 6d as a lead. Watch for the Jack when discarding as it is the key connector among the X-pointers, has a potential value in hand if matching suite on deck and a loss of that potential value when discarded to opponent. So the net shift in value (Potential
loss in hand and potential gain in opponent crib) is .5 of a point. Note that the Q-Q in HalscribCLX analysis above has the higher value by .18. That is often the case with pairs compared to cards of sequence since the pair starts with two points and the cards of sequence unless including a five or totaling five start at zero. Will take any pegs offered. Reassuring to note than nearly 40% retained the Jack this day.