Sunday 3:32 AM

I suppose some adventurous souls might try to Keep (5 6 J J) but I'm not feeling it.

I'll lead the Jack and probably proceed to regret it.

   

Sunday 3:33 AM

I'll keep the Jc for the better chance of the bonus point, crib flushes are rare.

   

Sunday 3:36 AM

I might do this one live today I might not, depends on my opponent. dec

   

Sunday 3:40 AM

If i were to be allowed a do over, I would keep the JC for an increased possibility of the extra point. I thus agree with James whose comment I read as I was typing mine

   

Sunday 3:42 AM

Off to go to town. Agree with all other contributors.

   

Sunday 4:19 AM

8-J as opposed to what? I see no other logical alternative.

   

Sunday 9:35 AM

Agree

   

Sunday 9:58 AM

Seems like running a fake flush would outperform holding the Jack of Clubs. Good discussion!

   

Sunday 11:34 AM

I think its either 8-JH or 8-JC although perhaps 5-6-J-J is worth a look:

4-5-6-JC: 7pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.59) = 2½pts

4-5-6-JH: 7pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.59) = 2½pts

5-6-J-J: 6pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.94) = 1pt

Potential:

4-5-6-JH: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 14xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 11/14/16pts with 444, 555, 666, JJ = 11 cuts. Plus 9 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

4-5-6-JC: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 14xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 11/14/16pts with 444, 555, 666, JJ = 11 cuts. Plus 12 clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

5-6-J-J: Improves with 444, 555, 666, 7777, 9999 + 14xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 9/11/12pts with 444, 555, 7777, JJ = 12 cuts. Plus 21 hearts and clubs for 1pt extra for his nob = 21/46 = 0.46pt.

Pegging:

I think 4-5-6-J will peg better than 5-6-J-J. 4-5-6-JH has the slight benefit of being able to fake a flush.

Position:

We have a good lead and are in position so I'll play Defense.

Summary:

5-6-J-J has less cuts for improvement, a lower maximum and starts with 1½pts less. The only plus side is the ½pt potential for holding two Js. Its out of the picture. As there are 3 additional hearts its worth keepng the JC in our hand over the JH and keeping it out of Dealer's box. The fact that it is suited with 8H-JH will only detract about 0.03pt. So its 8H-JH for me.

   

Sunday 12:05 PM

As others mentioned, I'm keeping the Jc for the slightly better chance of nobs. Not too worried about crib flush

   

Sunday 1:09 PM

At 44-26* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense____Hand__Pegs____Crib___Total____W6 %____W7 %
4-5-6-JC___9.98+(-2.98)+(-4.34)=2.66_____56.4____82.2
4-5-6-JH___9.91+(-2.98)+(-4.37)=2.56_____56.2____82.1
5-6-J-J____8.52+(-2.59)+(-4.79)=1.14_____51.2____79.1

Defense________L6 %____L7 %
4-5-6-JC_______5.3_____3.2
4-5-6-JH_______5.3_____3.2
5-6-J-J________5.4_____4.1

4-5-6-JC is 0.10pt better than 4-5-6-JH and is very slightly better for Win %s. So I'll select the suited 8-J to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead the 4 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead________Net Pegging Pts.
4________________(-0.95)
J________________(-1.27)
6________________(-1.62)
5________________(-1.87)

Sunday 8:07 PM

Congrats to Dan Seike. He just got his Like Masters at Blackstone today.

   

Sunday 9:56 PM

With an 18npointlead and already at hole 44, will play an optimal pegging strategy and retain the Jc. Agree with the lead of the 4 in an optimal choice. If playing offense would have led the Jack, holding 4-5-6 intact.