April 13, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by jmath714
32-16*  ?
70%
14%
10%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 151

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james500
1890 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Friday 3:17 AM
A double dose of double run hopenisis perhaps, but only the cut of an 8 won't help me, and one of those is already out of circulation.

I'll lead a 5 to leave me with a wider spread of cards to play next. Should Dealer score 15/2 then so be it, but with two fives in my hand, and a seven cut, I'm (naively?) not too worried about them holding X-?-?-?.
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dec
4191 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Friday 3:25 AM
I believe you want a chance for going for a three here so 4 5 6 7 X would be quite a few cuts. Six lead here might have to give some pegs to also peg. dec
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Rosemarie44
949 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Friday 3:57 AM
As has been said, only a cut of an 8 won't help the hand. This hand has the highest expected average. Would like to get closer to position 44 without giving much up to dealer.
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Jazzselke
1057 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Friday 4:54 AM
No reason to throw A3, does Jason have something up his sleeve?
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Gougie00
3630 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Friday 5:00 AM
only a 4 cut would be better. No need to peg.
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glmccuskey
2765 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Friday 5:34 AM
I certainly want to keep the 5-5-6 together but then I want the ace for pegging options. If the cut doesnít help I want the ability to peg defensively and donít like the tight bunch of 3-5-5-6. Plus 3-8 is a more defensive discard.
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dgergens
160 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Friday 6:42 AM
I was torn between A,3 and A,8 discard. I don't have the science behind it, I just felt I could peg better in battle with 5,5,6,8. Looks like 3,5,5,6 has a slight statistical advantage over 5,5,6,8, slight. Got rewarded with that cut :-)
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Inushtuk1
655 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Friday 8:20 AM
Playing offense Iíll go this way. Yeah itís a bit bunched up but Iíll worry about that later. I hit my hand. Continuing on offense with the 3 lead, keeping 5-5-6 intact.
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horus93
195 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Friday 8:31 AM
Let's play screw the dealer! Toss A-8.

Defense for me, lead the 3.
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Ras2829
3129 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Friday 9:36 AM
Liked this puzzle as it accurately reflects game situations and the choices that emerge in retention and discarding decisions. Often in hands such as this, look at the top and bottom cards. Those are often the discard choice, leaving a cluster in the middle with a 2-4 point value. These are quite common. You should be able to spot these discard choices though do not advise arranging your cards top to bottom. With a sixteen point edge, a hand score of 12 points, see no reason to put on the brakes. Will peg optimally, take pegs which seem reasonably safe to preserve or extend my positional advantage. RAS needs to deal from 43-47, 2nd street CPZ and know that I am already there with the count of this hand.
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JQT
2408 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Friday 10:00 AM
From Two to Twelve, just like that!

Put a Trailing Stop Loss Order on that position, pronto; and who knows, maybe after lunchtime it'll go even higher...

Lead the Trey. Weather the Storm. After all, it's Friday the Thirteenth!
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JRCeagle78
531 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Friday 12:43 PM
I was torn between A-8 or 3-8 for my discard. By keeping the Ace, I have the option to use it as an escape card or for pegging later in play.

I very briefly considered keeping the 5-5-6-8, but I did not want to gut shot for the discard. Even though the 7 came up anyway, I don't regret my choice.
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Coeurdelion
3590 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Friday 3:03 PM
I'd like to keep the 5-5-6 so I think that leaves either A-8 or 3-8. I would expect A-8 to score less in the crib:

3-5-5-6: 2pts - 4ĺpts (Schell: 4.85) = -2ĺpts

A-5-5-6: 2pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.04) = -3pts

Potential:

3-5-5-6: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 4444, 55, 666, 7777, 9999 + 16xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 6/8/12/14pts with AAA, 4444, 55, 666, 7777 + 16xXs = 32 cuts.

A-5-5-6: Improves with AAA, 333, 4444, 55, 666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 6/8/14pts with 333, 4444, 55, 7777, 9999 + 16xXs = 33 cuts.

Pegging:

A-5-5-6 should peg a little better with a 3-card magic eleven.

Position:

We have a good lead but we need 12pts to reach second street positional hole so I'll play Offense for the pegging.

Summary:

3-5-5-6 starts with ľpt better than A-5-5-6 and has slightly more cuts for improvement and more cuts for a good hand of 12-14pts. A-5-5-6 may peg a little better but 3-5-5-6 overall I think will be better so I'll throw the safer A-8.
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HalscribCLX
3348 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Friday 3:56 PM
At 32-16* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W7 %____W8 %
3-5-5-6___6.57+1.39+(-4.36)=3.60____38.0____57.7
A-5-5-6___6.39+1.83+(-4.64)=3.58____37.9____57.7
3-5-5-8___5.65+1.80+(-4.28)=3.17____36.5____56.8

Offense______L7 %____L8 %
3-5-5-6______14.5____23.3
A-5-5-6______14.6____23.5
3-5-5-8______14.4____23.8

3-5-5-6 is best for expected averages by only 0.02pt over A-5-5-6 and 3-5-5-6 is only fractionally better for both Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select A-8 to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Offense:

Lead_________Our Pegging Pts.
3________________1.39
6________________1.24
5________________1.22
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