April 13, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by jmath714
32-16*  ?
70%
14%
10%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 151
james500
3915 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Friday 3:17 AM
A double dose of double run hopenisis perhaps, but only the cut of an 8 won't help me, and one of those is already out of circulation.

I'll lead a 5 to leave me with a wider spread of cards to play next. Should Dealer score 15/2 then so be it, but with two fives in my hand, and a seven cut, I'm (naively?) not too worried about them holding X-?-?-?.
dec
6350 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:25 AM
I believe you want a chance for going for a three here so 4 5 6 7 X would be quite a few cuts. Six lead here might have to give some pegs to also peg. dec
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
 
 
 
Friday 3:57 AM
As has been said, only a cut of an 8 won't help the hand. This hand has the highest expected average. Would like to get closer to position 44 without giving much up to dealer.
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Friday 4:54 AM
No reason to throw A3, does Jason have something up his sleeve?
Guest says: He's a cagey one, but I went this way as well. S :)
Gougie00
5722 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Friday 5:00 AM
only a 4 cut would be better. No need to peg.
glmccuskey
4093 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Friday 5:34 AM
I certainly want to keep the 5-5-6 together but then I want the ace for pegging options. If the cut doesn’t help I want the ability to peg defensively and don’t like the tight bunch of 3-5-5-6. Plus 3-8 is a more defensive discard.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018
 
 
 
Friday 6:42 AM
I was torn between A,3 and A,8 discard. I don't have the science behind it, I just felt I could peg better in battle with 5,5,6,8. Looks like 3,5,5,6 has a slight statistical advantage over 5,5,6,8, slight. Got rewarded with that cut :-)
Inushtuk1
1479 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Friday 8:20 AM
Playing offense I’ll go this way. Yeah it’s a bit bunched up but I’ll worry about that later. I hit my hand. Continuing on offense with the 3 lead, keeping 5-5-6 intact.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Friday 8:31 AM
Let's play screw the dealer! Toss A-8.

Defense for me, lead the 3.
horus93 says: Second thoughts, my obligatory double-take, with such a good hand it makes more sense to try to shorten the game by a whole hand by playing offense. I believe the best offensive lead is the 5, simply because it keeps three cards (3-5-6) that are close together.
Ras2829
5145 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Friday 9:36 AM
Liked this puzzle as it accurately reflects game situations and the choices that emerge in retention and discarding decisions. Often in hands such as this, look at the top and bottom cards. Those are often the discard choice, leaving a cluster in the middle with a 2-4 point value. These are quite common. You should be able to spot these discard choices though do not advise arranging your cards top to bottom. With a sixteen point edge, a hand score of 12 points, see no reason to put on the brakes. Will peg optimally, take pegs which seem reasonably safe to preserve or extend my positional advantage. RAS needs to deal from 43-47, 2nd street CPZ and know that I am already there with the count of this hand.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. So what will you lead?
Ras2829 says: BTW the A-8 averages 4.843 (1,456) 40/91 and the 3-8 average is 5.196 (1,014) 52/91. In this case the average of the A-8 drops to 4.827 because of the presence of the six spot in the hand. These discard choices are a long ways down the list. You don't want to have to toss them frequently as they score 8 or more points 1 in every five times tossed and slightly more than 1/3 of those are 12 points.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inustuk1: Really don't like the five spot lead as likely to draw a 10 response for 15-2. Then it comes to do I play the other five leaving me with the 3-6 with considerable space? Or do I take my chances retaining 5-6 as non-dealer? That doesn't work very well. So will lead the trey which does result in a 6 response quite often as the trey is far more likely to be retained in small card runs or in conjunction with deuces and X's.
Guest says: Thanks Ras. Looks like the 5 or 6 lead from the “Sweet Sixteen” is not the right way to go this time. JQT is also shunning it.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Friday 10:00 AM
From Two to Twelve, just like that!

Put a Trailing Stop Loss Order on that position, pronto; and who knows, maybe after lunchtime it'll go even higher...

Lead the Trey. Weather the Storm. After all, it's Friday the Thirteenth!
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016
 
 
 
Friday 12:43 PM
I was torn between A-8 or 3-8 for my discard. By keeping the Ace, I have the option to use it as an escape card or for pegging later in play.

I very briefly considered keeping the 5-5-6-8, but I did not want to gut shot for the discard. Even though the 7 came up anyway, I don't regret my choice.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Friday 3:03 PM
I'd like to keep the 5-5-6 so I think that leaves either A-8 or 3-8. I would expect A-8 to score less in the crib:

3-5-5-6: 2pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.85) = -2¾pts

A-5-5-6: 2pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.04) = -3pts

Potential:

3-5-5-6: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 4444, 55, 666, 7777, 9999 + 16xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 6/8/12/14pts with AAA, 4444, 55, 666, 7777 + 16xXs = 32 cuts.

A-5-5-6: Improves with AAA, 333, 4444, 55, 666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 6/8/14pts with 333, 4444, 55, 7777, 9999 + 16xXs = 33 cuts.

Pegging:

A-5-5-6 should peg a little better with a 3-card magic eleven.

Position:

We have a good lead but we need 12pts to reach second street positional hole so I'll play Offense for the pegging.

Summary:

3-5-5-6 starts with ¼pt better than A-5-5-6 and has slightly more cuts for improvement and more cuts for a good hand of 12-14pts. A-5-5-6 may peg a little better but 3-5-5-6 overall I think will be better so I'll throw the safer A-8.
Inushtuk1 says: Both hands have the 3-card magic eleven.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:56 PM
At 32-16* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib___Total___W7 %____W8 %
3-5-5-6___6.57+1.39+(-4.36)=3.60____38.0____57.7
A-5-5-6___6.39+1.83+(-4.64)=3.58____37.9____57.7
3-5-5-8___5.65+1.80+(-4.28)=3.17____36.5____56.8

Offense______L7 %____L8 %
3-5-5-6______14.5____23.3
A-5-5-6______14.6____23.5
3-5-5-8______14.4____23.8

3-5-5-6 is best for expected averages by only 0.02pt over A-5-5-6 and 3-5-5-6 is only fractionally better for both Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select A-8 to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Offense:

Lead_________Our Pegging Pts.
3________________1.39
6________________1.24
5________________1.22