April 14, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by acis1 on ecribbage.com
32-17*  ?
21%
18%
13%
11%
11%
9%
5%
3%
2%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 143

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JQT
2470 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Saturday 3:00 AM
Our Maximum Hand Value would come after Toss (5 6)! Is anyone "up" for that?! 

After all, nearly two-thirds of those who voted (Yours Truly most notably excepted) did choose to Keep (A A 9 9) as Pone just a few days ago. 

And the computer never did 'chime in' during that day (on Thursday, 12 April 2018) as to whether the significant majority (over 60%) was on the 'right track' or not. 

In fact, if you've really developed an allure for this "Two Pairs Syndrome" (TPS), you might wish to 'go back' a few days and notice that I posted a little missive entitled, "Eating Your Pears" later that evening! 

So let's turn our focus back to today and let's get realistic: Shall we risk chucking a PAIR with Toss (8 8), or should we instead take heed and 'hedge' with something such as Toss (3 6) or Toss (6 8)? 

With a current lead of Half a Street or Fifteen Holes, we can probably afford to take on the risk of Toss (8 8) and retain the best-looking bunch of Keep (3 3 5 6), which only fails to be improved by Six Cuts (2222, 88). And look: hidden within the interstices of this motley card arrangement, we actually do have a three-card "Magic Eleven" in the unusual form of (3 3 5)! 

Yes, the fact that we were dealt half of the cards (those two 8 Cards) that make up one third of those "Loser" Cuts (the Cuts that won't ultimately help us) is probably not an insignificant detail, and knowing this might therefore help to mitigate the danger inherent in giving them away! 

We know two things: Throwing a PAIR of 8 Cards "over the board" is significantly different (and thus more dangerous) than stashing these same two cards in our OWN Crib; however, we also know that sending two 8 Cards a-packing is not quite as lethal as pitching two 7 Cards. 

And so it as: we'll Keep (3 3 5 6) and Toss (8 8) and then lead a Trey of Clubs from our PEAR. Any Questions? 
Reply
dec
4258 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Saturday 3:11 AM
I think I read somewhere that with these positions 33 would be the par goal. So even thou I know 8/8 might pass safely in the crib I will opt for defense here. Three lead for me. dec
Reply
james500
1953 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Saturday 3:12 AM
Trusting in the nullifying power of negative delta, it'll be 3-6 from me. Ideally we'll see either a 4 or 7 turned over.
Reply
Rosemarie44
1013 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Saturday 3:33 AM
I am going with tossing 3-6 today. Hand has the potential for 9 or 14 points but is heavily weighted at around 4 or 5 points.
Reply
Gougie00
3699 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Saturday 6:19 AM
that didnt work - Lead the 3 and hope to see the opponent play a 7. Ugh..
Reply
bbaer1
2528 votes

Joined: February 2011

   
Saturday 7:32 AM
Can't bring myself to hold two points and give away two points. Only eight cuts don't help this hold, and I've got 7 cut insurance.
Reply
horus93
260 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Saturday 8:04 AM
I tossed 6-3. Very surprised to find myself in such a minority today.

Checking my work on C. Liam Brown, this toss has both the best expected average and the lowest crib average.

I'd play defense to the cut and hence lead an 8.
Reply
Inushtuk1
704 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Saturday 8:28 AM
Since I chose offense yesterday at essentially the same score, I might as well do the same today. The expected average is not the most important thing on offense. Maximizing average hand and maximum offensive pegging is. And while (5-6) has a higher average hand by 0.08 points it won’t peg anywhere near as well as the 3-3-5 Magic Eleven. So toss (8-8) it is then.

Lead the 3c to force the 5 off the play and bring out the X-card. And if successful show the Dealer the other 3 to keep the 5 in his/her hand and bring forth another X- card for our (31-2).
Reply
Coeurdelion
3659 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Saturday 3:09 PM
I think its between 33, 88 or 5-6?:

5-6-8-8: 2pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.68) = -4½pts

3-3-5-6: 2pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 6.82) = -4¾pts

3-3-8-8: 4pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.47) = -3½pts

Potential:

5-6-8-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 88, 9999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 6/7/14pts with AAAA, 2222, 4444, 7777, 88 = 18 cuts.

3-3-5-6: Improves with AAAA, 33, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 88, 9999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 6/8/9/16pts with AAAA, 33, 4444, 666, 9999 = 17 cuts.

3-3-8-8: Improves with AAAA, 33, 4444, 7777, 88, 9999 = 20 cuts = 43.5% up to 8/12pts with AAAA, 4444, 7777, 88 = 14 cuts.

Pegs:

I think 3-3-5-6 will peg the best of the three.

Position:

We have a good lead but need 12pts to reach the next positional hole of 44pts. So I'll play Offense for the pegging.

Summary:

3-3-5-6 has a ¼pt lower starting value than 5-5-6-8 but it has more cuts for improvement and better maximumss. It also should peg better. So I'll throw 8-8.
Reply
Ras2829
3186 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Saturday 10:58 PM
Inushtuk1 and Coeurdelion say it all for me. So there is a hand of two points form which 8-8 is the correct discard to opponent? My, that is hard to do!
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