Monday 3:02 AM

I think Toss (3 5) and the FLUSH will do better for us than either Toss (5 7) or Toss (3 3), although we may be in a tough position.

   

Monday 3:07 AM

I believe the priority is make both hands work to the max. Maybe a loose 3-6 in the crib we really need that 90 plus badly. Hopefully we can afford not to engage in any pegging here. dec

   

Monday 4:28 AM

Three reasonable options to choose between, 33,57 or the flush, (with another 3 and a 6 out of circulation, I don't think that 9-3d is a 4th).

Discarding 3-3 means every cut will help my hand to 7+, and the crib is guaranteed to be worth at least two.

6 response to an X lead. If another X is played I score 31/2 with my 5, if paired I score 31/2 with my 9.

   

Monday 4:42 AM

I think it is between 3-5 and 6-9. It pays to Flush. We'll see if that is the case today. We are really behind and the cut doesn't help us.

   

Monday 4:55 AM

My gut reaction is to toss myself the 33. I see the flush and the 35 to the crib is tempting. I like the small run, and its pegging potential. Besides all that, my gut says the pone tossed me 2Q.

I need to be at hole 95 at the end of this deal. Get on that horse and ride!

Mother Nature is off her meds again. There is an inch of snow on the ground. My cat is confused and refuses to go outside. Pseudo holiday here in Massachusetts.

   

Monday 8:27 AM

As much as I respect the geniuses here sharing their collective Cribbage wisdom, I can't agree that the flush is the best hand. Not even close.

   

Monday 9:15 AM

The Puzzle Master is at it again. Great puzzle. I don’t see why some are so “down” on our position here. Yeah, we’re behind by 15 points, but it’s *our* crib. This game is not over by a long shot. Play defense here and keep the opponent from reaching his next objective of 95/96, and with any luck we have regained the advantage. The flush just may do that, and those two key connectors in the box bode well for us.

I’ll continue on defense after the cut. Taking the (15-2) on a 6 or 9 lead, but otherwise laying off. No 7 on the 8 lead here. I would prefer to avoid any run pegging wars if possible.

I think James and Greg’s 5-6-7-9(3-3) is a very close second though.

The weather is absolutely vile. But no pseudo holiday here. Not that it matters. I’m retired anyway.

   

Monday 10:30 AM

I liked the looks of this flush, and checking my work it does indeed have the best expected average, and, more importantly, will not be bad on defense.

This is a critical deal. Pone will probably win if he gets around 96. We must play as defensively as possible.

   

Monday 1:01 PM

I like 6-9 also.

   

Monday 3:20 PM

The hands that stand out are the flush, 5-6-7-9 (3-3) and 3-3-5-7 (6-9):

3D-6-7-9: 6pts + 6pts (Schell: 5.97) = 12pts

5-6-7-9: 5pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.94) = 10¾pts

3-3-5-7: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 11¼pts

Potential:

3D-6-7-9: Improves with 2222, 33, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 = 22 cuts = 47.8% up to 10/11/12pts with 33, 555, 666, 8888, 999 = 15 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

5-6-7-9: Improves with 2222, 33, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 4444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 = 20 cuts.

3-3-5-7: Improves with 2222, 33, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 9/12/14pts with 33, 4444, 555, 666, 777 = 15 cuts.

Pegs:

The flush should peg well but with a 3-card magic eleven and more low cards so will 3-3-5-7.

Position:

We're in the 3rd street CPZ but Pone is also in position and only needs 9pts to reach 4th street positional hole. I'll play Defense to try to hold them back.

Summary:

3-3-5-7 is ¾pt lower than the flush and 5-6-7-9 is 1¼pt lower for starting value. However both have many more cuts for improvement and 5-6-7-9 has 20 cuts for 8-12pts while 3-3-5-7 has 15 cuts for 9-15pts. As 3-3-5-7 starts with only ¾pt less than the flush, has the best maximum and should peg better I think this hand will have the best chance of overtaking the flush. So I'll throw the 6-9.

   

Monday 3:37 PM

At 72*-87 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Defense
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
3D-6-7-9__8.17+(-2.20)+5.95=11.92____17.9____22.2
3-3-5-7___9.11+(-2.43)+5.00=11.68____18.0____22.8
5-6-7-9___8.11+(-2.22)+5.65=11.54____18.8____22.7

Defense_______L3 %____L4 %
3D-6-7-9______59.8____70.9
3-3-5-7_______58.7____70.0
5-6-7-9_______59.0____69.9

The flush is best for expected averages by 0.24pt over 3-3-5-7 but in this critical board position both 5-6-7-9 and 3-3-5-7 are both better for Win %s and Loss %s which take account of the board position. 5-6-7-9 is slightly better for Win %s and 3-3-5-7 for Loss %s but as 3-3-5-7 is better for expected averages by 0.14pt I'll select 6-9 to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.