Tuesday 3:02 AM

Would like to stash the 5 Card in my Crib, but cannot bust up 4-5-6-6 to do it.

The FLUSH is also tempting, but again, 4-5-6-6 is King!

   

Tuesday 3:16 AM

I have to go with the double run today. The Flush was a strong consideration. Decided against tossing 4-5 as we are holding two 6's.

   

Tuesday 3:27 AM

And it still is two more in the crib. Peggers. dec

   

Tuesday 5:22 AM

Possible 24 instead of 20 the other 2 ways.

   

Tuesday 5:32 AM

Perhaps I'm guilty of "looking a gift horse in the mouth", but sometimes a flush of very similar value to a double run will work out to be a good option, (11 points vs 12 points in this example); Being able to put a 5 in our crib with no loss of hand points, (today with the synergistic 4), is tempting, although 6-6-9-9 is a very "boom or bust" type of hand, and much more bust than boom.

   

Tuesday 5:40 AM

Never break up a double run. I am sure I heard that somewhere.

   

Tuesday 6:46 AM

One of my rules of thumb is to virtually never break up 4-5-6-6, 4-5-5-6, or 4-4-5-6. This rule may well be a sort of hopenosis - the averages are being pulled up hard by the few cuts that can make this one of the best hands in the game. But when you're this far behind it makes sense to go for it anyway.

This is a bad position but with this nice hand we might just claw our way back.

I would play total offense. If we can peg around 4 points we'll be in a decent position, as long as pone doesn't have a crazy good hand himself.

   

Tuesday 7:30 AM

Never break up chance for 24 except for 28/29.

   

Tuesday 8:30 AM

Given how far back we are, I really didnt't want to give any points away. I would have kept the 6-6-9-9 but felt giving the 4-5 was more dangerous than 9-9. Once that decision was made, 4-5-6-6 had more upside potential, so that's how I arrived at my choice.

   

Tuesday 8:46 AM

Oops. Looks like I clicked on the wrong cards. LOL. I meant to keep the double run. It must be all that negative delta out there. All three options are loaded with it. And can anyone come up with a hand where we *wouldn’t* keep the best hand in cribbage; other than an end-game scenario? Because I don’t believe this is it.

Well I would have been perfectly content to play defense had I cut the 24 hand. But seeing as I have only 15 known points, I’ll definitely be playing offense now, and taking both the (15-2), and (31-2) if Pone shows me two X-cards. Plus dropping my 6d on an 8 lead. Hoping to outpeg the Pone 10-3. This could easily happen; as at this score Pone is probably looking for the chance to skunk me.

   

Tuesday 9:58 AM

BTW do frequently break double runs. What would you expect from a guy who wrote a paper about 20 years ago titled "Double Run Hypnosis"? You can see that on www.cribbage.org under playing tips by RAS. Here based on my scant empirical evidence the double run has such potential that the combined value is about 1.5 points greater than holding the flush. The choice of 6-9 and 9-9 to crib are close to the same with less than .1 of a point separating them. Very little difference in the pegging potential of 4-5-6-6 or suited 4-5-6-9. The pegging difference between the two can be measured in hundredths whether playing offense or defense. Best thing I can do on this hand, dealing one hole short of 3rd street CPZ (69-73) with opponent 15 holes down the board is to slow the progress of opponent. Am not quite willing to choose a defense pegging strategy - so will be optimal for me. Will not take a 3-card run if it looks like opponent could score 4. Will avoid pairs if it looks like opponent could get the triple for six. Would play 6d on a X-point lead. Would pair a six lead or score 15-2 on the 9 if led. On other leads would wiggle to stay away.

   

Tuesday 11:14 AM

Wish I had these problems occasionally! Book throw 9-9.

   

Tuesday 1:23 PM

Do we keep 11pts with the flush or 12pts with the double-run? 6-6-9-9 (4-5) has a better starting value but poor potential:

4-5-6D-9D: 11pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 16¼pts

4-5-6-6: 12pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 17¼pts

6-6-9-9: 12pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.48) = 18½pts

Potential:

4-5-6D-9: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 3333, 444, 555, 66, 7777, 99 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 15/18/20pts with 444, 555, 66, 99 + 16xXs = 26 cuts. Plus 9 diamonds for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

4-5-6-6: Improves with 3333, 444, 555, 66, 7777, 99 + 16xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 16/21/24pts with 3333, 444, 555, 66, 99 = 14 cuts

6-6-9-9: Improves with 3333, 66, 99 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 20pts with 66, 99 = 4 cuts.

Pegging:

I think the flush should peg the best although 4-5-6-6 will peg best as well.

Position:

We're not quite in 3rd street CPZ and Pone needs 13pts to reach 4th street positional hole. So I'll peg Offense.

Summary:

4-5-6D-9D has a starting value 1pt lower than 4-5-6-6 and 2¼pts lower than 6-6-9-9 but the flush has most cuts for improvement and also the extra 0.20pt for flush improvement. Also it should peg better. So I'll throw the 6S-9S.

   

Tuesday 2:02 PM

At 68*-83 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Pone's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
4-5-6-6___15.35+(-1.76)+4.63=18.22____29.0____42.0
6-6-9-9___12.87+(-1.98)+6.16=17.05____19.1____39.1
4-5-6D-9D_13.89+(-2.02)+4.63=16.50____20.6____36.9

Defense_______L3 %____L4 %
4-5-6-6_______39.7____44.5
6-6-9-9_______35.4____49.2
4-5-6D-9D_____40.4____51.8

4-5-6-6 is best for expected averages by 1.17pts and is very much best for Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select 9-9 to discard,

After the 2 cut I'll play Optimally (cautious offense) to the lead.