April 20, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
94-86*  ?
68%
16%
7%
4%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 149
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:08 AM
Yes, I know that I have been guilty in both the present and the past of dubbing Toss (7 9) as "The Curse," but we shall likely be cursed here if we *don't* Toss (7 9).

Toss (7 9) *only* averages about one lousy point worse than Toss (7 T), which incidentally is probably our best defensive resource, so why indeed not Toss (7 9)?

If we're *bold* here, we lead the Ten Card; otherwise, we might usually choose to lead the Trey.

But as we're likely to be in a very *defensive* mood and posture here, some might wish to be more 'tentative' today and thus lead an Ace.

How's *that* for covering all of the bases?! I'll in fact lead the Trey, since another Trey was Cut. Focus on defense today.
JQT says: And yet ... if we could *only* just peg Fifteen Holes here, we might just SKUNK'um!!
JQT says: Note: Yes, we'd still only be (*gasp*) at Hole 117, but if the Dealer only gets a Two-Point Hand, and then (bear with me...) only gets a Zero-Point Crib, and of course if she or he only pegs the minimum One Hole (and doesn't of course Cut a Jack), now ... all we would have to do is peg Four More (unanswered) Points as the Next Dealer in order to secure that aforementioned SKUNK. You with me, class?
Inushtuk1 says: Now *that’s* confidence.
james500
3916 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Friday 3:39 AM
Close to my desired position, so won't take any risks with 7-9. Only cuts of 777,8888 won't help me. Ace lead from my A9A eleven.
dec
6351 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Friday 3:42 AM
7-9 no but 7-10 a lot less riskier. Once again its mostly about what they get here. Ace lead. No pegging.No crib. Await next deal. dec
Gougie00
5723 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Friday 4:14 AM
That was pleasant. I was afraid that an 8 would show up as the starter. Time for a little defense. Lead the ace and play off? What happens in the ace is paired?
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Greg. I wouldn’t risk tripping it. Play the 10 “fer sher”.
Inushtuk1 says: Remember Al’s adage. “Only take the points if you need them.”
Rosemarie44
2052 votes

Joined: March 2016
Friday 4:53 AM
I think we need to push forward and toss 7-9 which as has been said previously, is less than a point difference between this toss and 7-T. Expected averages favor 7-9.
Rosemarie44 says: previously. . Haven't had my coffee.
Rosemarie44 says: my spellcheck changed my incorrectly typed word!!!!
Guest says: No coffee ?, your maid on vacation ?
Rosemarie44 says: I'll be needing my car, George.
glmccuskey
4094 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Friday 5:53 AM
Keeping the 9-10 with the aces gives me a good chance to score 3-4 points at the end of the count. Also, to much upside to 7-9.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Gary. So you’re leading the 10; ignoring the three card eleven today?
PBatterson
1447 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Friday 6:33 AM
I always cut an eight when I do this but I keep doing it.
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Friday 8:20 AM
Can afford defence I think. Throw 7 -10. A 7, 8 , 9 turned up may well lead to a very bad situation. Let's avoid that.
Inushtuk1
1480 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Friday 8:33 AM
Damned if we do, damned if we don’t. I would have led the As if that 3 hadn’t turned up. Will lead the 3 now. Faking the flush with the As on a 5 through 9 reply; otherwise it’s the 10 for my second card.
JQT says: What's the best lead today if we somehow *knew* that the Dealer's Hand *matched* our own Hand?
Inushtuk1 says: I would lead an Ace. When he pairs the Ace I can play my 10. Any other way, and Dealer will score a quad for 12, plus one for last card.
Inushtuk1 says: This question reminds me of Barlow’s Tip 47 from Winning Cribbage Tips: Guard Against the Worst That Can Happen. And if we *did* give him/her the quad here, the score would be 100-105* before the showdown. That puts us at 108. Now s/he scores the average 5 in the crib, and 8 in the hand, and the score for the next deal is now 108*-118. We’re in big “doo-doo.”
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Friday 10:21 AM
I tossed 7-9, he's pretty far behind. It might blow up though.

Beautiful cut, I'd play off and lead an ace.
Ras2829
5145 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Friday 1:31 PM
At hole 94 with 4th street CPZ 95-99, see no reason to pay defensively. Admittedly, I don't like any two mid-cards to dealer crib. Will lead the trey and take any pegs offered. If opponent were at hole 96, would I play it any different? Would retain the same hand with the 7-9 discard although would likely choose a defense pegging strategy and lead from the Aces.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Friday 2:36 PM
I think we either keep the 4pts with A-A-3-10 (7-9) or 2pts with A-A-3-9 (7-10):

A-A-3-10: 4pts - 5¼pts (Schell: 5.26) = -1¼pts

A-A-3-9: 2pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.31) = -2¼pts

Potential:

A-A-3-10: Improves with AA, 2222, 333, 4444, 5555 + 15xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 8/12pts with AA, 2222, 333, 4444, 101010 = 16 cuts.

A-A-3-9: Improves with AA, 2222, 333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 999 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 6/8/12pts with AA, 2222, 333, 5555 = 13 cuts.

Pegging:

With a 3-card magic eleven I think A-A-3-9 will peg better than A-A-3-10.

Position:

We only need 2pts to reach 3rd street positional hole so I'll play Defense to keep Dealer short.

Summary:

A-A-3-9 starts with 1pt less than A-A-3-10 but has more cuts for improvement although only 13 cuts for an average to good hand compared to 16. Also A-A-3-10 has 6 cuts for a dozen compared to A-A-3-9 with 6. It may be tempting to go for the better pegger and the defensive discard but overall I think the A-A-3-10 will score better. So I'll throw the 7-9.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Friday 2:45 PM
At 94-86* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib___Total____W2 %____W3 %
A-A-3-10__6.61+(-2.48)+(-5.10)=(-0.97)_35.2____79.1
A-A-3-9___4.87+(-2.13)+(-4.35)=(-1,61)_25.2____74.6

Defense_______L2 %____L3 %
A-A-3-10______10.3____10.1
A-A-3-9________7.2____13.5

A-A-3-10 is better for expected averages by 0.64pt and is much better for Win %s and only slightly worse for Loss %s. So I'll select 7-9 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Defense:

Lead_______Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3________________(-2.03)
A________________(-2.06)
10_______________(-2.62)