May 24, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by acis1 on ecribbage.com
56-43*  ?
52%
28%
12%
3%
2%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 157
JQT
4136 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 3:47 AM
Well, the FLUSH was 'almost' up to the task yesterday, so let's try it again.

The danger of Toss (6 8) should be somewhat mitigated by the presence of all of these other 'Middle' Cards.

Lead the 8.
Guest says: 11091986
james500 says: Hi. To the guest above, is your comment written in UK or US date order? (DD/MM/YYYY or MM/DD/YYYY)
JQT says: It's crazy perhaps, but when I look at dates (if that's what this is) from three or four decades ago, I can often remember what I did on such a given day. But if you ask me about more recent years, say 2005 and later, I usually draw more of a blank (even though, or maybe because, I've seldom left my apartment in over a dozen years due to my health. There are a handful of people who can virtually remember EVERY DAY of much of their lives, such as the irrepresible and adorable Jennifer Tilly, who incidentally is an exceptional poker player. I am in awe of her and people who share her skill, people who can tell you the day of the week and major news headline from a random date of three or four decades prior. It's uncanny to see such total power of recall when demonstrated.
Rosemarie44
2051 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 4:09 AM
I agree, let's go with the flush today. Yes, lots of middle cards to soften the danger of tossing 6-8.
dec
6327 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 4:31 AM
keep the flushing twelve and attain that next par. Murphy's crib here? At least that cut should'nt help the crib hardly. dec
james500
3895 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Thursday 5:23 AM
12 points pretty much guarantees that I'll be in position for my deal. 6-9 shouldn't be too disastrous considering the other cards out of circulation.

8d lead.
Gougie00
5702 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 5:30 AM
Just trying to mess up the works for my opponent. The diamond run gives me 12 and him 0. The 4 is of no value and maybe not the dealer either. Lead the 8 and try to stay out of pegging.
glmccuskey
4075 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Thursday 5:42 AM
Lead the eight and peg what you can get. Your guaranteed to be dealing from 68. I few pegs would be nice.
Inushtuk1
1464 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 6:48 AM
I agree with Gary. Lead the 8 and take what you can get.
Inushtuk1 says: Has anyone tried leading a 6 from this bunch? It avoids this common pegging scenario: 8(8)-7(15-2)-9(24-3)-6(30-5). Colvert advises the 8 lead to preserve the five card trap, with the 7 being a Turkey Play. But maybe the 6 can work out thus: 6(6)-9(15-2)-9(24-2)GO-7(31-2).
JQT says: Having discarded 6-8, at the juncture of (15-2), I might simply play the 6 Card and score (21-3), even though it risks both (31-2) and (30-5). As Pone, we always face the absolute fact that we're bound to lose the 'relative' pegging battle; therefore, sometimes it's best to accept this and attempt to 'trade' as many points as possible. The brutal reality is that certain Dealer Hands are going to *crush* us during the pegging. And the 8 Card Lead has borne out its relative effectiveness over time.
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks JQT. Interesting that you *might* play the 6 on his/her 7. You probably know why I asked this question. As I am sure you have seen the Cribbage Prof lead a 6 from this hand. I often wondered was it simply a small fault in the programming, or did he know something we don’t. Or maybe just personal playing style, as you have stated in the past.
Jazzselke
2569 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 7:31 AM
Yep, play your position and get to 70 or beyond. Match any card for 20 points.
horus93
1272 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Thursday 8:09 AM
I don't want to toss 8-9 with our opponent only a point short of par. Defense after the cut
wasa
2991 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Thursday 8:10 AM
Also went with the flush. Agree with others - holding middle cards helps minimize any damage when tossing the 6-8. Hopefully pone didn't toss 7-7
wasa says: Sorry - I'm pone. Hopefully dealer didn't toss 7-7. I need an edit button!
Hillchem says: Although, even if the dealer does move 12-24 points, things still look good if we can peg a few holes here.
Inushtuk1 says: I agree Rob. That’s why we need to peg offensively now, and get as deep in our zone or beyond for the next hand.
dgergens
938 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Thursday 10:20 AM
Everyone speaks of the danger of tossing 6,8 in pone's crib. But to keep the double run, you have to toss and 8,9 or a 6,9. Aren't those more dangerous than 8,6? To me the flush just makes it a no brainer by giving you back most of the points you sacrifice by not keeping the double run. Not having the flush would make the offence/defense question harder to decide. For me. Probably not for this bunch.
JQT says: Excellent summary and analysis, dgergens! And congratulations, because by this weekend, you'll no doubt have attained 100-vote status.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi dgergens. Might make a good puzzle. I think you have to toss as wide as possible no matter your strategy. The (6-9) is safer than (6-6). And 6-7-8-8 has more cuts for improvement than 7-8-8-9. The (6-9) only works with other 6’s and 9’s.
Guest says: Thanks for pointing out the obvious, which I had not bothered to notice. The 6,9 only works with 6's and 9's. I will keep that in mind henceforth.
Coeurdelion
5574 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Thursday 2:57 PM
I think its between the flush and 6-7-8-8:

6D-7-8D-9: 12pts - 5½pts (Schell: 5.86) = 6½pts

6-7-8-8: 12pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.26) = 5¾pts

Potential:

6D-7-8D-9: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 5555, 66, 777, 88, 999, 10101010 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 20pts with 66, 777, 88, 999 = 10 cuts. Plus 1pt extra for 9 diamonds = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

6-7-8-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 5555, 66, 777, 88, 999 = 22 cuts = 26/46 = 47.8% up to 16/20/21/24pts with AAAA, 66, 777, 88, 999 = 14 cuts.

Pegging:

I think the flush will peg slightly better than the double-run.

Position:

Opponent is virtually in position and we need 14pts to reach 3rd street positional hole. Starting with 12pts we should reach this and if we get a good cut we might play Defense but I feel with either hand it might pay to play Offense.

Summary:

The flush starts with ¾pt more than 6-7-8-8 and has 4 more cuts for improvement. It has only 10 cuts for a very good hand and the maximum is not as high but all achieve 20pts. With a 6, 7, 8, 9 in hand there will be quite a lot of negative delta as with most of the discards. Also it has the 9 diamonds for the flush and will perhaps peg better. So I'll throw the black 6-8.
HalscribCLX
5297 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 4:05 PM
At 56-43* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs__Crib___Total____W4 %____W5 %
6D-7-8D-9_14.46+1.30+(-4.48)=11.28____21.9____61.4
6D-7-8-8__14.48+1.11+(-5.49)=10.10____20.7____58.8
6-6-7-8___12.83+1.30+(-4.71)= 9.42____16.6____53.5
7-8-8-9___14.04+1.15+(-6.13)= 9.06____19.0____56.2

Offense_______L4 %____L5 %
6D-7-8D-9_____0.5_____3.8
6D-7-8-8______0.5_____4.6
6-6-7-8_______0.5_____5.1
7-8-8-9_______0.7_____5.5

The flush is best for expected averages by 1.18pt and is slightly best for both Win %s and Loss %s. So I'll select 6c-8S to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll lead the 6 and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Pts.
6__________________1.46
8__________________1.22
7__________________1.16
9__________________1.02
Guest says: Pls. explain W4% vs. W 5%.. Thx..