June 11, 2018

*** This hand was suggested by acis1 on ecribbage.com
97-77*  ?
60%
29%
8%
0%
0%
Total votes: 162

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james500
1859 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Monday 3:13 AM
* 10-7 would be safer, but I'll succumb to the hopenosis this morning.
* 20 points ahead with a 12 point hand, I won't worry too much about the 4-6-7-?-? crib.
* 9c lead.
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dec
4150 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Monday 3:15 AM
What is a better defensive hold keeping the four or the seven? I opted for the two,five and the rest of the 9-6s in the deck. Nine lead. dec
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Rosemarie44
923 votes

Joined: March 2016

   
Monday 4:07 AM
As usual I tend to go with expected averages. Tossing 4-T is usually only worth 2 points in opponent's crib. In keeping with our position at hole 97, I am holding 6-7-9-9 starting at 6 points and has a potential for 16 points.
In comparison, tossing 7-T (usually worth 2 points in opponent's crib also) starts with 6 points and has a potential for a maximum of 12 points.
Twenty cuts increase the former hand from 8 points to 16 points and the latter, sixteen cuts to a potential of 8 points to 12 points.
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Gougie00
3599 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Monday 4:21 AM
Another Hedge move. I am not interested in pegging. Lead the 6 and if the dealer can peg on mu 9-9-10, so be it.

I am sort of hoping to see a 5 in the dealers hand. 55 would be a killer.
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glmccuskey
2735 votes

Joined: April 2011

   
Monday 5:29 AM
I’ll throw and peg defensively. Lead the six.
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JQT
2377 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Monday 6:19 AM
Lead a 9d.
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Inushtuk1
625 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Monday 8:12 AM
Rosemarie say it all. The 6-9-9-10(4-7) would be a close second. With 12 points and a significant lead, switching to offense. Lead the 9d and take everything. Try to keep the 6-7 intact for a five card trap.
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dgergens
143 votes

Joined: January 2018

   
Monday 8:20 AM
In the early days I was always pleased to see the top row yellow thinking I chose well grasshopper, but now when I see the top row yellow, I think, crap, what did I miss because the usual commenters so often vote other than than the popular vote. But today all is well. Lead the 9.
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horus93
178 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Monday 8:36 AM
Going for a skunk my instincts were that 7-T would be more balking than 4-T, and it is by about .3. In fact it is apparently the second most balking toss to 6-T which would have spoiled our hand.
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JRCeagle78
508 votes

Joined: June 2016

   
Monday 8:37 AM
One drawback of this discard is the bunching of the card values. A more defensive toss could be 10-7. I'll lead the 9 and take what is offered.
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Coeurdelion
3556 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Monday 3:05 PM
I think its between 6-7-9-9 (4-10) and 4-6-9-9 (7-10):

6-7-9-9: 6pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.53) = +1½pts

4-6-9-9: 6pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.31) = +1¾pts

Potential:

6-7-9-9: Improves with 2222, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 99 = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 9/12/16pts with 5555, 666, 8888, 99 = 13 cuts.

4-6-9-9: Improves with 2222, 444, 5555, 666, 99 = 16 cuts = 16/46 = 34.8% up to 9/10/12pts with 2222, 5555, 666, 99 = 13 cuts.

Pegging:

I think 6-7-9-9 will peg slightly better than 4-6-9-9

Position:

We're at 4th street CPZ although as Non-dealer and Dealer is way behind at 77pts. So I think we can afford to play Offense.

Summary:

6-7-9-9 starts with ¼pt less than 4-6-9-9 buy has more cuts for improvement and more cuts for a good hand and to a better maximum. So I'll throw 4-10.
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HalscribCLX
3321 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Monday 3:46 PM
At 97-77* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib___Total___W1 %___W2 %
6-7-9-9___8.09+(-2.61)+(-4.59)=0.89____0.1____59.8
6-9-9-10__8.00+(-2.65)+(-4.56)=0.79____0.0____60.4
4-6-9-9___7.57+(-2.65)+(-4.16)=0.76____0.0____56.1

Defense______L1 %___L2 %
6-7-9-9______0.0____0.6
6-9-9-10_____0.0____0.6
4-6-9-9______0.0____0.5

6-7-9-9 is best for expected averages by 0.10pt but 6-9-9-10 is slightly better for Win %s. Loss %s are about the same. As its approaching the end of the game I'll put more weight on The Win %s which take account of the board position. So I'll select 4-7 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll lead a 9 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead_______Net Pegging Pts.
9______________(-1.04)
6______________(-1.20)
10_____________(-1.83)
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Ras2829
3099 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Monday 5:39 PM
It's pretty darn close call here as to whether defense or offense is the better choice. With a 20 point lead and well down 4th street, I'll opt for offense as the majority have. Did not consider holding 6-9-9-10. If not choosing the hand with sixteen points potential would have chosen 4-6-9-9 and discarded 7-10. The discard profiles have some differences if comparing 7-10 with 4-10. The 7-10 and 4-10 at least are on page 1. The 7-10 averages 4.171 (1,785) 7/91, scores two or less 37.871%, tallies 3-7 46.611%, scores 8-11 12.661%, and reaches 12 or more 2.857%. The 4-10 averages 4.576 (932) 26/91, scores two or less 38.09%, tallies 3-7 42.168%, scores 8-11 17.167%, and reaches 12 or more 2.575%. Sorry would not have considered 4-7 as shown above in HalscribCLX analysis. The 4-7 is way down the list with average of 4.997 (695) 47/91, scores 2 or less 28.877%, reaches 3-7 56.281%, scores 8-11 19.375%, and reaches 12 or more 5.467%. That means that 1/4 cribs are 8 or more points with the 4-7 toss to opponent. Will lead 9D and peg with reasonable safety. If a six is played on my nine lead, will advance the count to 24 with the other 9 spot rather than make the count 21 to pair the 6.
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