Tuesday 3:18 AM

Let me preface my decision by saying "It's anyone's guess on today's hand".
Protocol for cribbage as pone, first hand, is usually offense. I'm going to toss 7-K that has 16 cuts for improvement (both hands at zero) to 3,4, or 6 points vs. tossing T-K which has 11 cuts for improvement to 4 or 5 points.
Important to point out that both hands have the exact statistics whether using Liam's or Ras's crib values. The two differences are: one hand has the higher expected average and the other has a lower crib value.
Both T-K and 7-K are usually only worth 2 points in opponent's crib. ChoosingT-K is slightly safer.

   

Tuesday 4:17 AM

A fizzler to start the game. Wonderful!

   

Tuesday 4:43 AM

A,4,5,6,7,8,9,T or J = 32 helpful cuts.

32 cards = 30 + 2 =
32 cards = (5*6) + (2*1) =
32 cards = (5*13%) + (2*2%) =
32 cards = 65% + 4% =
32 cards = 69% of not starting with 19 points.

7 lead may lead to:

7(7)-7(14/2)-A(15/2)... or,
7(7)-8(15/2)-9(24/3)-6(30/4)-A(31/2).

   

Tuesday 5:10 AM

I’ll keep the peggers and lead the ace.

   

Tuesday 5:23 AM

Best peggers as already detailed. QK is a common throw to both yourself and to the opponent. Usually not much but will sometimes be 16.What some people refer to as "all or nothing". Maybe Ras can show the stats on ho we often 12 or more.

   

Tuesday 6:54 AM

I debated tossing T-K or 7-K. I wanted to keep the 9-T together (or maybe 7-9?) but in the end, 7-K to dealer hoping for an 8 or J.

   

Tuesday 8:12 AM

I dont really know all the stats but it looks like we dont have many good options for improvement no matter what is cut. Since there really is no offensive gamble here I'd rather just throw k-7 and hope to a get a few points in cut and limit crib.

   

Tuesday 9:00 AM

The best part of this rubbish (garbage :-) hand is the close cards 9-10 and I think we ought to throw the K with something. I'll avoid the Q-K so That leaves A-K or 7-K. I estimate this as 4½pts vs. 4¼pts (Schell: 4.30 vs. 4.27) and also I think holding the A will peg a little better. So its 7-K for me.

   

Tuesday 9:25 AM

This seems like the best way to either complete a possible RUN or to make use of a 5 Card Cut.

I will lead the Queen. If the Dealer plays any Ten Card, we can push the Count to Thirty and maybe sore (31-2); if (15-2) gets scored by the Dealer, then we can unload our Ace.

   

Tuesday 11:27 AM

This is the same hand that Ras submitted last June 20th. Except now we are Pone. I thought the best toss would be (K-10); using the strategy, (common on this site), “When dealt garbage, toss garbage.” I guess I was way off here.

Been doing lots of Crib Solitaire Drills. So, getting *slightly* better at discarding as Dealer in a fairly timely fashion. But with hands like these as non-dealer, I don’t have the brain power to figure out which hand has the most cuts for improvement, given the time constraints of tournament play. Hence my (K-10) toss, which obviously from the comments was way wrong.

From the looks of things I would have been better off with A-9-10-Q(7-K). Like JQT says; this has the best chance of making a run with 5 card insurance as well. The A-7-9-10(K-Q) may have more cuts for improvement but (K-Q) seems a bit too risky with no 5’s or J’s having been seen.

If I had a do-over, and could hold A-9-10-Q, I’d lead my 9.

   

Tuesday 1:15 PM

I guess I am the only one willing to speak up for the plurality choice of tossing K-A. Throw wide. The tables I am using for discards from pone to dealer show K-A at 4.30 K-7 at 4.27 and K-Q at 4.49. Essentially a wash. Lead the Q play the 9 on a 15-2 and hope for a go and play the 7 for 31-2 for me? I can see throwing K-7 as a second option keeping the A for pegging but not much has been said about that. Would like a reply to my thinking..please...

   

Tuesday 1:18 PM

All of nothing pretty damn lean I say . dec

   

Tuesday 2:29 PM

At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs__Crib____Total____W9 %____W10 %
A-9-10-Q__2.17+1.48+(-4.26)=(-0.61)___13.8____15.9
A-7-9-Q___1.78+1.39+(-3.98)=(-0.81)___13.6____15.7
A-9-10-K__2.09+1.50+(-4.43)=(-0.84)___13.8____15.9

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
A-9-10-Q_____35.6____55.4
A-7-9-Q______35.8____55.6
A-9-10-K_____35.6____55.5

A-9-10-Q is best for expected averages by 0.20pt and is joint best for Win %s and very slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 7-K to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll lead the 9 and play Offense:

Lead_________Our Pegging Pts.
9_________________1.26
Q_________________1.24
10________________1.24
A_________________1.20